Market Analysis: The Long Staple Cotton Market Is Expected To Increase Steadily

This year's long staple cotton market reported a relatively large increase in production. The planting area of long staple cotton has been declining in recent years. Last year, the market predicted that the planting area of long staple cotton was 500000 mu, but the actual area was 200000 mu. This year's target is 500000 mu, and the current statistics show that it is 300000 mu. The final area demand depends on the later statistics. It is understood that the overall growth of cotton in southern Xinjiang this year was fairly good, with more hail than last year. There was a period of high temperature and water shortage, which had a certain impact. Last year, the cotton yield per unit area was 440 kg/mu, which is expected to increase steadily this year. The defoliant time is about one week or 10 days earlier than last year.

Current market situation: pure cotton yarn is difficult to sell, and high count yarn is difficult to ship. At present, 60 pieces The price of 27500 yuan is 33000 yuan over the same period last year. In recent years, the highest price is 40000 yuan, and the lowest price is 26000 yuan. At present, the price is on the low side.

There are several reasons why it is difficult for textile mills and yarn prices to rise:

1. The downstream demand is not good. The inventory of the enterprise's own spinning mill is that there are still 300 tons of yarn in the warehouse this year. The previous two days, it barely walked 5 tons, while there was no inventory in the same period last year. At present, there are 4000 tons of fine wool cotton in the raw material side inventory, and 1000 tons of cotton is consumed every month. The enterprise has enough inventory and does not need to rush to purchase.

2. The buyer's market is obvious. If the price of lint decreases, the customer hopes to reduce the price when purchasing yarn; If the price of lint increases, the customer hopes to get the goods at the previous price.

At present, most of the inland cloth factories do not open in the daytime or at night. At present, there are two months' inventory of finished products in the cloth factory, which is higher than that in previous years. It is expected that the recovery of demand in the consumption season this year will have little impact on the cotton mill. The cotton mill will find the cotton mill to stock up. First, the cotton mill will have to go out of stock.

According to the following findings, the growth of new cotton this year is good, and the overall yield is expected to increase compared with last year. It is learned that this year's cotton output is indeed better than last year's overall situation, but this year's cotton price performance is relatively general, most growers think that the possibility of a sharp rise in future prices is not very high, and this year's opening price is not like previous years, there is a strong reluctance to sell, this year some growers said that the price of 5.5 yuan is acceptable.

In terms of ginning plants, the trend of cotton this year is relatively general. Last year, many ginning plants were operating at a loss. In the case of weak cotton price trend, the overall enthusiasm of ginning plants this year was not as good as before, and the expectation of new cotton harvest this year was not very high. It is understood that the price of ginning plants in this year was not very ideal, and even they chose to operate on their own because they could not afford to go out, At present, most ginning enterprises are not very optimistic about the future market. Considering that the overall cotton growth is good this year and the early temperature is relatively normal, it is estimated that the weighing time will be about 10 days ahead of schedule this year. According to the information from the visiting enterprises, most ginning enterprises expect the price to be around 5.5-6.5 yuan this year, but they also said that they will consider harvesting flowers in the future in combination with the current plate price.

In addition, according to some textile enterprises, it is learned that most of the mainland cloth factories in this year do not open in the daytime and open at night. At present, the inventory of finished products of cloth factories is 2 months higher than that of previous years. It is expected that the recovery of demand in the consumption season this year will have little impact on the yarn mill The consumption peak season in October is expected to be relatively limited, which is treated with caution.

Therefore, in terms of cotton fundamentals, the supply side is still in a loose state. In terms of new cotton, the national cotton output is expected to be high this year. According to the survey enterprises, Xinjiang's output in some regions is expected to be more than 6 million tons this year; At present, the upstream ginning factory is not active and the cotton price is expected to be poor, so the expected rate of cotton rush harvest in the new year is probably lower than that in previous years.

From the demand side, the overall export performance of this year is fair, but the recent performance of domestic demand orders is less than expected. Although the downstream orders have improved recently, all links still remain cautious about the future market, leading to the lack of active stock. This year's "golden nine and silver ten" is likely to have a peak season.

On the whole, it is expected that cotton prices will remain weak in the future, but considering that most of the current negative factors have responded to the current situation, the downward space is expected to be limited. In addition, considering the high uncertainty of macro factors in the future, it is not ruled out that it will have a certain impact on cotton prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the weighing price of new cotton and the changes in downstream demand in the future.