The Balance Of The Two Financial Institutions Has Reached A New High In Nearly Six Years. Can The Upward Trend Of A-Share Be Sustained?

After several days of continuous positive situation, on June 2, the A-share market entered weak consolidation in the afternoon. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.76% to 3597.14 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.18% to 14857.91 points, Hushen 300 fell 0.97% to 5289.97 points, and the gem index fell 1.73% to 3243.02 points.

However, on the same day, the total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded trillion for the fourth consecutive day, and the market trading sentiment was active. As the market stabilizes, the balance data of two financial institutions, known as the barometer of the stock market, has also reached new highs. Wind data showed that on June 1, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's financing balance was 832.47 billion yuan, an increase of 4.516 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day; The financing balance of Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 745.065 billion yuan, an increase of 3.431 billion yuan over the previous trading day; The two cities totaled 1577.535 billion yuan, breaking a new high since July 2015.

In fact, after the big drop after the Spring Festival, since the end of May, the A-share market is gradually improving, the index is higher and the growth style is relatively dominant.

In the view of industry insiders, this market is mainly driven by the expectation of RMB appreciation, the abundant short-term liquidity of the market and the continuation of China's economic recovery. However, some institutions pointed out that there is not much trend support in the whole rising process at present, and it is necessary to be vigilant against overseas market risks.

The balance of the two financial institutions reached a new high in nearly six years

Over the past few days, with the market sentiment picking up, the 21st century economic reporter noted that as of June 1, the balance of the two financial services had increased for eight consecutive trading days (from May 21 to June 1), and the total balance of the two financing increased by 40 billion yuan.

As of June 1, the balance of margin trading and securities lending (hereinafter referred to as "the balance") of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 8.342 billion yuan to 1.73 trillion yuan compared with the previous trading day, accounting for 2.51% of the market value of a shares, reaching a new high since July 6, 2015. The trading volume of the two financial institutions reached 9.944 billion, accounting for 9.55% of the transaction value of a shares.

In terms of industries, within 8 trading days, there were 24 industries with an increase in net financing purchases. The pharmaceutical and biological industry had the largest increase in the financing balance, and the financing balance increased by 4.663 billion yuan during the period. Non bank finance, food and beverage, electronics and other industries ranked first in the increase in financing balance; The industries with reduced financing balance include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communication and other industries.

As for individual stocks, during the period when the balance of the two financial institutions rose, the financing balance of 1174 underlying stocks increased, accounting for 58.97%. Among them, the top ten stocks in net financing purchase amount were Changchun hi tech, Sany Heavy Industry, COSCO Haikong, Zhongda, Zhifei biology, Gree electronics, Longji, Zhongjin, goer and Watson biology, The net financing purchase amount of these enterprises is as high as 530 million yuan.

Among them, Yonghui supermarket accounted for 33.76% of the total turnover during the period when the balance of the two financing increased, and the net purchase of 413 million financial assets accounted for 33.56% of the total turnover.

With the continuous growth of the scale of the two financing, the proportion of the financing balance of some individual stocks also grows rapidly. According to the trading rules, when the financing monitoring index of a single stock reaches 25%, the exchange can suspend its financing purchase on the next trading day and announce it to the market.

The 21st century economic report reporter has noticed that most enterprises' financing balances are in a relatively safe state. Wind data shows that as of June 1, only 67 stocks with financing balance accounting for more than 10% of the circulating market value, 668 stocks with financing balance accounting for 5% - 10%, 1083 enterprises accounting for 1% - 5% and 169 stocks accounting for less than 1%, Only Rendong holding company's financing balance accounted for more than 20% of the current market value, reaching 21.34%.

Can the rebound last?

It is worth mentioning that, as the safer leverage funds in the market, it can promote the decline of A-share market, and the fluctuation of the balance of financing and financing also shows a more obvious positive correlation with the A-share market.

In fact, during the rapid rise of the two financial institutions, the A-share market is also fluctuating upward trend. Wind data shows that since May, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index have risen by 4.38%, 3.50% and 6.00% respectively. Among them, the trend has been the strongest since the last ten days of May. The Shanghai Composite Index has also surged to 3600 points, and the gem index has once stood at 3300 points.

Tan Changgui, founder and chief investment officer of Shenzhen Longhong investment, pointed out to the 21st century economic reporter that the rebound since the end of May is mainly due to the influence of market adjustment time and range, market sentiment, growth and policy expectations, etc. the market has gradually got rid of the shadow of "medium-term adjustment", and its style gradually returns to value growth stocks and may continue to develop in depth.

"First, the economic data in May showed that China's growth may not be strong, and the prices of some commodities have fallen sharply and the yield of treasury bonds has declined significantly in recent years. Some local epidemics have also been repeated. The space for policy tightening is limited. The superposition of RMB appreciation trend is favorable for foreign capital inflow, and the market liquidity is abundant in the short term; Second, as China's recovery continues for a long time, the market's attention has gradually shifted from the recovery after the epidemic to the growth under the normal economic conditions. The value growth plate with supporting fundamentals and sufficient space for subsequent growth may return to the view of investors; Third, although it is difficult for the prices of raw materials and bulk commodities to fall back in an overall trend, the market of the cyclical plate may have come to an end under the influence of multiple factors. " Tan Changgui said.

Yang Xia, director of Xuanyuan investment, also pointed out to reporters that the rise was caused by multiple factors. One is that the northward Fund found that the performance of China's asset prices was far lower than that of the United States on the strong macro cycle varieties. The superposition of the central bank's early position triggered the expectation of continuous appreciation of the exchange rate, showing a wave of obvious capital inflow; Second, domestic mainstream funds, with the help of the time window of the domestic bond market and the continuous decline of the real interest rate in the United States, have made a wave of eliminating the weak and retaining the strong in the long-term core assets according to the industry prosperity and stability, and continued to add to the secondary high-end liquor, new energy vehicles and other fields.

Looking forward to the future, whether the rebound of A-share can be sustained or not will be affected by many factors. We need to be alert to the influence of overseas related policies.

Yang Xia believes: "from the current point of view, the marginal variable factors that determine the trend of A-share in the future for a period of time are not at home, but overseas, it is the policy choice of the Federal Reserve."

In Yang Xia's view, the domestic economy recovered better in the first half of the year, and there were a large number of special financial bonds to be issued in the second half of the year, which can be used as hedging. The overall economy will remain stable and good this year. The market is expecting that the Federal Reserve will begin to discuss scale reduction in the second half of the year. With the gradual control of the epidemic situation in the United States due to vaccination, and the non farm employment data in April are significantly lower than the market expectations, the market is very concerned about the data to be released in May on Friday, and whether it is possible to make an early statement of "downsizing", Whether the US dollar index and the short-end U.S. bond yield will fluctuate more than expected will have an adverse impact on the A-share market.