New Year'S "Good Start" Of A-Share Market

2021 A-share "good start"!

January 4, the first trading day of the new year, continued the fierce offensive of the last trading day in 2020, and the trading volume of the two cities exceeded trillion.

On that day, there were 3500 points on the Shanghai stock index, the highest since January 2018. By the end of the day, the Shanghai index was up 0.86% to 3502.96. On the same day, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index reached a five-year high since July 2015. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.47% to 14827.47, while the gem index rose 3.77% to 3078.11.

In terms of the industry, electrical equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry and non-ferrous metal plate led the rise. The Shenyi class industry index showed an increase of 7.37%, 6.86%, 6.01% and 5.43% respectively.

Especially outstanding performance included new energy vehicles, liquor, food and beverage, pork, military industry, nonferrous metals and other sectors. Among them, the performance of new energy (automobile) + consumption is the most dazzling, which is jokingly called "drunk driving" on the first day of the new year.

The main driving force of the A-share index is a number of leading stocks in the industry, which deduces the "strong always strong" market: Ningde Times rose by 15.09%, with a market value of over 900 billion; Longji shares rose by more than 8.57%, with a market value of nearly 380 billion; Jinlongyu rose by more than 14.06%, with a market value of more than 670 billion.

Guizhou Maotai once set a new high, standing at 2000 yuan / share, and the highest reached 2004.99 yuan / share. Wuliangye stock price once hit 300 yuan, a record high. At the end of the day, Laobaigan liquor, Jiugui Liquor and Shuijingfang were trading, Luzhou Laojiao, Jinhui liquor and Yili te rose by more than 6%, Yingjia tribute wine, highland barley wine and St shede rose by more than 5%.

Restless market in spring

Institutions generally believe that the spring restless market has opened.

"On the first trading day of 2021, A-share is on a good start, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are up, new energy leading stocks and consumer Baima stocks continue to lead the two markets, continuing the upward trend before the festival, and the market earning effect is relatively obvious." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

Wei Fengchun, chief macro strategy analyst of Boshi fund, also believes that "with the rapid rise of Baotuan plate represented by new energy vehicles and liquor in recent two weeks, the" spring agitation "market may have started in 2021

"This round of" spring market "has already started in December, and we are still relatively optimistic in the outlook for January." Fu Rong fund equity investment director Deng Yuxiang said.

"On the first day of the new year, the market got off to a good start, with the new energy sector performing strongly. In the case of extremely loose funds, a number of previously strong plates have risen sharply. In the current market liquidity is highly abundant, it is expected that the whole first quarter market will have a better performance than expected. We are highly optimistic about the new energy industry. This year, China's new energy vehicles are expected to double, and the new energy industry will start a performance rise cycle of up to 5-10 years. We judge that new energy will become the core line of the market this year. " Banyan investment research director Li Shixian said.

Many institutions are also optimistic about the future market.

"Now the A-share market continues to rise, opening the spring offensive, structural opportunities are still more." Yang Delong said.

Yang Delong believes that in the new year, the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to expand space upward. The increase may not be large, about 10-20%, but there are still many structural opportunities. 2021 is still a big year for value investors.

Yang Delong believes that the reason behind the market optimism is that, on the one hand, from the macro-economic point of view, China's economy will see a sharp rebound in growth in 2021. Especially in the first quarter of this year, due to the low base number, the GDP growth rate may rise to more than 14%, which will bring spring offensive, and the annual GDP growth rate will rise to more than 9%. On the other hand, from the perspective of monetary policy, the central economic work conference proposed that monetary policy in 2021 will not turn sharply. That means there is no need to worry too much about tightening monetary policy in 2021. In addition, the process of household savings moving to the capital market will continue.

Hu Po, the future star fund manager of private placement paipaipai.com, believes that in the case of liquidity, the market is expected to be in the first quarter of the market, do more enthusiastic gathering.

"At present, it is difficult to falsify the market logic in the short term, and the relevant industries are in a period of high momentum with obvious improvement in profits. As long as the follow-up performance can meet the market expectations, the current valuation will be digested healthily, and the stock price trend will remain stable and upward in the long run. " Long Win Fu Ze asset senior researcher song Haiyue said.

However, some institutions are cautious about the future market.

"The further back to the NPC and CPPCC sessions, the market is worried about the risk of real credit contraction. Concussion or repeated, maintain a positive position to deal with, the current position to the two sessions are long window period. " Wei Fengchun said.

"Today's Shanghai index breakthrough 3500, after all, is an important pass, there should still be repeated, can be appropriate band operation." Quan Hong private fund general manager Li Kejie said.

"We should be more cautious this year, because after all, the epidemic is not completely over, and there is still uncertainty. We suggest that we should pay more attention to some industries with a rising prosperity, such as consumer, photovoltaic, wind energy, and the upstream of semiconductors. " Said Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment.

Xuanjia financial CEO Lin Jiayi believes that the start of the cross year market in the context of loose credit is highly certain. But in this context, he is worried that funds will be speculation like in 2015. "Investors need to be very cautious, once these speculative funds disperse, there will be a permanent loss of principal."

Unite and search for depression

In 2021, fund managers have different investment directions.

Some fund managers continue to be optimistic about institutional group stocks.

"In 2021, the profit-making effect will still be concentrated on Baima stocks, including the consumption of Baima shares, new energy and technology leading stocks. The consumption of" liquor, medicine, food and beverage "of the Three Musketeers is still the focus of market attention. Some emerging consumption, such as duty-free shops, new retail and consumer electronics, are also the focus of investment in 2021. " Yang Delong said.

China Europe Fund is optimistic about electronics, real estate industry chain, new energy vehicles, high-end consumption (liquor, medical beauty, fitness, insurance); it is expected that after 2021, the performance growth expectation of high certainty growth sectors such as new energy and military industry will partially absorb its high valuation, so it is necessary to pay more attention to the growth stocks with high cost performance.

Hu Bo believes that the performance of new energy vehicles, consumption, military and non-ferrous metal plate rose first, and the structural market of the organization group continued. It is expected that January will still be a structural market, the market will continue to focus on the industry sectors with certain performance, and the scarce core assets still have good performance.

Some fund managers are looking for valuation depressions.

"We are now in a heavy position and we have invested in Hong Kong stocks," Mr Li said. At present, Hong Kong stock market is a global value depression, which is worthy of attention and investment. "

But Lin Jiayi said: "we will not pay attention to the small enterprises whose themes are hyped or overestimated, or we will focus on enterprises with undervalued and high growth, especially in Hong Kong stock market. At present, there are many excellent enterprises whose valuation is at the bottom of history and the growth rate is more than 20%

"At present, our core configuration lies in defense, mainly focusing on securities lending and fully hedging, and playing new online. The bottom positions of value investment are superimposed, and a new strategic bottom position portfolio is created, and a package of undervalued portfolios is constructed. " Lin Jiayi said.

Lin Jiayi suggested that investors should pay special attention to the comprehensive cost performance brought by valuation and growth, and should maintain a cautious attitude and control their positions in the process of the market going up.

"Today is the spring's" good start "market. There should be some performance in January this year." Zhao Lisong said.

Zhao Lisong said: "we have added some warehouses before, and the current position is about 50%. Because we are more worried about the impact from the United States, as well as macro policy changes such as domestic currency. It's better to be cautious this year. The characteristics of this year's market are likely to continue the market of institutional groups. It's just that some funds are now separated from individual stocks of institutional groups, which will give some impetus to other sectors and individual stocks. "

He Jinlong, general manager of Meili investment, said, "we have continued to absorb some oversold targets last week, and the position is waiting to rise. In the future, plate differentiation and individual stock differentiation will also intensify with the rise of the index. Investors can pay attention to some low valuation plates and enterprises. "

There are also institutions that suggest a two pronged approach. Wei Fengchun suggested: "structurally, while maintaining the core position allocation of the pro cyclical nonferrous metals / chemical industry / financial sector, increase the allocation of the military industry and new energy vehicle sector. In particular, the military industry sector not only has a relatively reasonable valuation, but also has the calendar effect of January rise. It is suggested to focus on this issue."