Ambition And Helplessness Of The King: The Power Battery Battle Behind Tesla'S Price Reduction
On the first day of 2021, when the domestic Tesla Model y stands on the air of public opinion due to its rapid price reduction, the test will follow. Under the rumor that "the order of 10 hours exceeds 100000 vehicles", whether Tesla's production capacity can resist pressure will directly affect the timely delivery of new cars.
On January 2, 21st century business reporter consulted a Tesla salesman and learned, "if you place an order now, the delivery of model y will have to wait until the end of March at the earliest." According to Tesla's official website in China, the delivery of model y will begin this month.
In recent years, Tesla has been regarded as a "price killer" in the industry. The market repercussions caused by the falling price of new cars are more vividly reflected in the domestic model Y: the price of 100000 yuan lower than the expected price has become a "great gift" in the mouth of many consumers.
The reason why Tesla dare to fight "price war" is precisely because of the rapid decline of battery cost in recent years. However, Tesla can dare to reduce the cost of batteries and seize the orders of vehicles, but it may also restrict the further expansion of its vehicle capacity due to the untimely supply of batteries.
At last year's Tesla battery day, CEO Elon Musk admitted that Tesla often missed production targets because the design and manufacturing process of new cars and batteries were not fully developed.
Chasing King
In the early morning of September 23, 2020, musk appeared in front of 270000 netizens. At that time, he introduced Tesla's plans for the future, especially the substantial reduction of battery design and manufacturing costs. Therefore, the press conference was called Tesla's "battery day". However, the launch did not meet the expectations of the company. Even, the direct evaluation of some institutions after the meeting was that "some expectations have failed." On the same day, Tesla's share price fell, and its market value shrank by more than 150 billion yuan.
The reason why Tesla's "battery day" has attracted the attention of the outside world is that as the king of new energy vehicles, it is still a catch-up in the field of power batteries. This is Musk's heartache, and it is also the biggest ambition that the outside world thinks Tesla is condensing at present: realize the self production of new battery.
According to the plan, Tesla will produce 100GWh power batteries in 2022, and the number will rise to 3twh by 2030. "If this is achieved, Tesla will not only be able to supply batteries for its own vehicles, but also supply batteries to other car manufacturers, killing two birds with one stone." A new energy vehicle industry analyst told the 21st century economic reporter.
In fact, Tesla is speeding up its own pace of catching up.
On the evening of December 29, 2020, Yahua group, a domestic A-share listed company, announced that Ya'an lithium industry, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed a battery grade lithium hydroxide supply contract with Tesla, which agreed to supply battery grade lithium hydroxide products with a value of US $630 million to US $880 million from 2021 to 2025. This large single, directly led to the realization of two board Yahua group stock price.
It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time Tesla has purchased battery grade lithium hydroxide from Chinese enterprises. As early as 2018, Ganfeng lithium, the largest lithium compound manufacturer in China, announced that it had signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tesla, which agreed to supply battery grade lithium hydroxide products to Tesla's designated battery suppliers from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020 (with a three-year extension), and the annual purchase quantity was about 20% of the company's total production capacity in that year.
The difference is that the supply object of Ganfeng lithium industry is Tesla designated battery supplier, while the supply object of Yahua group is directly Tesla. This change shows Musk's "Sima Zhao's heart".
The demand of high endurance mileage is a problem that new energy vehicles need to face in the future. On Tesla's battery day, "lower cost" and "higher energy density and range" became the keynote. The particle size of ternary materials prepared by using lithium hydroxide as lithium source tends to be more uniform, which is one of the reasons why lithium hydroxide is gradually used as lithium source in high performance power battery.
In recent years, Tesla has put one of its cost reduction focuses on batteries. In terms of battery technology, Tesla adopts the strategy of developing lithium iron phosphate battery and lithium ternary battery simultaneously. Some models are equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery, and the cost is lower, which is the direct reason for the sharp price reduction of models including model 3.
But in the self-made battery technology route, Tesla still insists on the high nickel ternary line. And last year, it released a new generation of cylindrical 4680 batteries. However, in the view of industry insiders, Tesla can not achieve large-scale mass production of power batteries in the short term even if it is indicated that it will build its own battery production line. "Although Tesla has a lot of battery technology, the overall battery production line technology may not be mature." The new energy vehicle industry analysts said that in the short term, Tesla's dependence on external battery suppliers is difficult to change.
A feast for power batteries
"Tomorrow will be very busy, model y new car to the store, many people said to come to see the car." On January 2, the aforementioned Tesla sales personnel told the 21st century economic report that the domestic model y used ternary lithium batteries, which was consistent with the vehicle information in the 12th batch of recommended models for promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2020 published by the Ministry of industry and information technology.
Model y is beyond the expected heat, which may affect the delivery target of domestic model y, making Tesla's capacity increase more bold.
According to earlier media reports, a source said that Tesla (Shanghai) factory plans to produce about 550000 vehicles in 2021, including 300000 model 3 and 250000 model y.
The 21st century economic reporter learned that the battery capacity of the domestic model 3 standard version is 55 kwh, while that of the long endurance version is 77 kwh. The battery capacity of the new domestic model 3 does not change. In addition, the model y battery capacity announced by the Ministry of industry and information technology is 77kwh. According to this calculation, the maximum installed capacity of power battery for 550000 domestic Tesla vehicles is 42.35gwh.
The main suppliers of Tesla battery are Panasonic, LG Chemical and Ningde times. Among them, the battery suppliers of Tesla (Shanghai) factory are LG Chemical and Ningde times.
To be sure, Tesla set off the power battery gluttonous meal, is currently any power battery manufacturer can not swallow alone. According to the statistical data in 2019, Ningde times, Panasonic and LG Chemical power batteries are among the top three in the world, with 32.9gwh, 28.5gwh and 15.4gwh, respectively. These figures are still lower than the maximum demand for power batteries required by 550000 domestic Tesla vehicles.
While eating this big cake, the production capacity supply has become an important support for each company to compete for share. Take Ningde times as an example, the expansion of production by 10 billion yuan has become the most concerned event of the company recently.
On February 3, 2020, Ningde Times announced that it had signed an agreement with Tesla to supply lithium-ion power battery products to Tesla from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2022. From the perspective of supply, Ningde times is inferior to LG Chemical. However, under the expectation of high-volume production target, Ningde era is expected to increase its battery supply to Tesla.
On the evening of December 29, 2020, Ningde times issued three announcements in succession, planning to build or expand three lithium-ion battery production base projects with a total investment of no more than 39 billion yuan, so as to further consolidate its position in the top of the power battery installed capacity.
The competition among the three major battery suppliers will continue. It is reported that LG Chemical announced last month that it plans to supply Tesla with ultra-high nickel lithium ternary batteries in the next year. The battery is planned to be mass produced in the second quarter of this year and used in the domestic version of model y and the next generation of electric vehicles.
In addition, external battery suppliers are also speeding up the trial production rhythm of Tesla's new battery for the new generation battery announced by Tesla. Recently, according to media reports, Panasonic, one of Tesla's three major battery suppliers, plans to start trial production of 4680 new batteries for Tesla electric vehicles as early as 2021. Once the trial production is successful in advance, Panasonic will be able to increase the opportunity to obtain Tesla orders as soon as possible, which is tantamount to "snatching food from tiger's mouth". LG Chemical said earlier that the new battery specifications it developed was completely consistent with the Tesla 4680 battery. And Ningde era is also actively layout the cylindrical battery production line, which adds variables for the future competition.
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