"Fixed Income +" Fund Will Break Out In 2020: Without Gangyu And P2P, Low Volatility Products Are The Most Popular

This year, the "fixed income plus" fund is booming! The scale has increased significantly.

"Under the background that many non-standard businesses are limited, bank financing breaks through the rigid cash flow, and P2P exits the historical stage," fixed income + "products have become the choice of many stable investors. This year, this kind of products were issued quickly, with a scale of more than 300 billion in the year, setting off a wave of small climax. " Zhang Ting, chief strategist of Ge Shang financial management, said.

Taking the "fixed income plus" strategy as an example, according to the statistics of the 21st century economic report reporter, as of December 10, 310 new partial bond hybrid funds (A / C share statistics, the same below) have been set up since this year, with a share of 304.3 billion, 3 times and 5 times higher than that of last year.

However, the trend of "fixed income plus" fund development will continue.

"This year, there is a large amount of" fixed income plus ". Many joint-stock banks have made efforts. A lot of such products have been sold some time ago. Next year, large state-owned banks may relay the" fixed income + ", and the number of state-owned banks will be even larger. The" fixed income + "products will increase significantly in the future Said a fund manager who manages more than 10 billion "fixed income +" funds.

So, how can investors find an excellent "fixed income +" Strategy Fund in the tide of new funds?

Industry insiders believe that the best way is to choose the products of fund companies and fund managers with excellent long-term performance and proven risk control ability.

"Gushui +" volcanic eruption

"Under the policy of no speculation on housing and housing, residents' savings have been transferred to the capital market this year. Most of them buy funds to enter the market. The" fixed income plus "just meets the needs of some investors who pursue low and medium risk. This year, the scale of such products has increased significantly." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

In fact, there is no clear positioning for "fixed income +". Simply put, "fixed income plus" is an investment strategy, which consists of two parts, including "fixed income" and "+" investment strategies.

The "fixed income" part is the part of fixed income, which generally takes bonds as the bottom position, accounting for about 70%. This kind of investment income is low but stable, and the risk is small.

The "+" part generally refers to equity, convertible bonds, new trading, derivatives, quantitative hedging and other strategies, which are used to increase returns, accounting for about 30%. This part of the investment is high risk and high return, which is mainly used to improve the income. At present, the mainstream strategies of "+" are equity, debt swap and innovation.

"Fixed income +" funds, in a broad sense, are "fixed income +" products that mainly focus on bonds and combine stocks and bonds. There are more and more "fixed income +" products on the market.

According to the types of fund investment, "fixed income plus" includes mixed primary and secondary debt base, partial debt mixed fund, flexible allocation fund and stock long and short. However, not all of the above fund categories are "fixed income +" products, such as partial pure debt allocation of mixed debt base, flexible allocation of some stocks with high position and mixed base of partial debt, are not "fixed income +" products.

Huatai Securities chooses "stock position less than 40% + bond position greater than 60% (including convertible bonds) + pure bond position less than 95%" as the standard, and roughly selects basic "fixed income +" products, totaling 870 (A / C consolidated calculation). In addition, there are currently 22 quantitative hedge funds.

The sales of "fixed income +" are really hot this year.

On December 4, Huaxia Dingqing bond fund was established, with an initial amount of 10.64 billion yuan, which is the sixth "fixed income plus" fund with a scale of more than 10 billion yuan this year.

Among the newly established "fixed income +" 10 billion fund this year, huitianfu has the largest initial raised income of 21.6 billion yuan; e-fund Yuexing holds nearly 20 billion yuan a year; Harvest Fund also has 10 billion hot money products, all of which appear in the shock market in the second half of the year.

On the whole, the most suitable type of investment with "fixed income +" is the partial bond hybrid fund (Note: the allocation of bonds exceeds 60%). Wind data shows that as of December 10, 2020, there are 670 (A / C class statistics, the same below) partial bond hybrid funds in the market, with 452 billion shares and 488.1 billion yuan in scale.

Among them, since this year, 310 partial bond hybrid funds have been established, with 309 billion shares issued. This year, the number and share of newly issued funds account for 46% and 68% of the total.

This year, the number of partial bond hybrid funds and the share of issuance increased by 298% and 501% respectively compared with the whole year of 2019.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, as of December 10, 116 new flexible allocation funds have been established, 44.1 billion shares have been issued; 89 new secondary bond bases have been established, with 54 billion new issues. Quantitative hedge funds issued 13 this year and 9.4 billion new ones.

In addition to new issues, the stock of "fixed income +" products also received a lot of net subscription in 2020, with a significant increase in share and scale over the same period of the same period.

Huatai Securities believes that there are four reasons why "fixed income +" products have been widely recognized in the market this year: first, under the background of net financial management, traditional bank financial management has given up the ecological niche of "high return and low volatility", while "fixed income plus" has filled in the blank of stable products; Second, under the background of China's economic "speed shift", real estate investment and other high yield financing entities are restrained, low interest rate environment has become the new normal, equity and innovation provide new options for increasing income; Third, since May this year, the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds is relatively strong, and the correlation between the strategies such as new strike and fixed increase and traditional assets is relatively low, all of which have increased the stability of the net value of "fixed income +" products and improved the holding experience; fourth, under the money making effect, such products have been vigorously promoted by bank channels.

In this regard, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said: "this year is the year of fund sales in China. The fund sales volume has reached nearly 3 trillion yuan, more than double the sales volume of the bull market in 2015. The main reason is that under the regulation policy of housing and housing speculation, a large number of residents' savings will be transferred to the capital market, and most residents will enter the market by buying funds+ ’Just fit in with a part of the pursuit of low-risk investors demand, so sales are better. Then the future performance of fixed income plus products may still be welcomed by investors. "

Industry insiders believe that "fixed income +" products will continue to grow substantially in the future. With the implementation of the new asset management regulations next year, under the background that the bank's financial products have broken through the rigid exchange, the "fixed income +" product will undoubtedly become a new financial management choice for customers with low risk preference.

Base selection logic of "fixed income +"

So, how can investors find excellent "fixed income +" products?

In the case of "fixed income +" fund risk is relatively small, income is undoubtedly an important indicator.

Overall, under the A-share bull market, "fixed income plus" has achieved good results this year.

According to wind data statistics, as of December 10, 2020, there are 360 partial bond hybrid funds established before 2020, with an average return of 12.05% since this year.

Among them, the top ranked e-fonda anying returns this year reached 46.93%, followed by Hongde Zhiyuan a of 36.69%, Changsheng Shenghui a of 32.60%, and e-fonda gold to increase profit a of 32.25%.

Among the 360 partial bond hybrid funds set up before 2020, 354 have made positive returns this year and only 6 have made losses.

Among them, 9 partial bond hybrid funds have gained more than 30% since this year, 28 funds have gained between 20% and 30% and 182 funds have returned between 10% and 20%.

Huatai Securities believes that this year's "fixed income +" investment focus is to do a good job in "+". The overall return of the bond market is regular, while the structural opportunities of the stock market run through the whole year. The strategic returns such as new sales and fixed increase are better. After the expansion of convertible bonds, the space for selecting bonds has been improved.

However, for many institutions, such as banks, when choosing "fixed income +" products, they do not only look at the earnings of one year, but often look at the earnings of the past three or five years.

However, there are not many fixed income + fund products that have been established for more than three years (as of December 10, 2017). The majority of the mixed funds of partial debt are only 213.

In the last three years (from December 10, 2017 to December 10, 2020), the top 10 annualized returns of partial bond hybrid funds were: Hongde Zhiyuan a (Wu Chuanyan), Hongde Zhiyuan C (Wu Chuanyan), 22.59%, anying return (Zhang Qinghua), Anxin feedback (Zhang Qinghua, Lin Sen), 19.49%, 16.21% and 16.21% respectively 45%, 14.13%, 13.76%, 12.47% and 11.78% respectively.

A fund manager who has been engaged in the "fixed income plus" strategy for four years in a large company said that there are two better criteria for finding "fixed income +" products: first, large fund companies, the core competitiveness of fund companies is stock research; second, the risk preference of fund managers. From a long-term perspective, the return of a portfolio comes from two aspects: one is the stability of the portfolio funds; the other is the risk preference of fund managers, who choose the fund managers who match the risk of "fixed income +" products.

Zhang Ting believes that "fixed income +" products should first ensure that the risk of underlying bonds is controllable, and focus on the ability of fund managers to identify individual bond risks; in addition, such products also need tactical fine-tuning of positions between stocks and bonds, and need a certain amount of asset allocation capacity; finally, as part of increasing additional income, the stock part also needs fund managers to select stocks Ability.

Looking forward to next year, Huatai Securities believes that under the continuous market demand for "high-yield, low volatility" products, "fixed income plus" still has room for development. However, there are several key points in the operation level: first, the equity market and "+" assets need to reduce the expected return; second, be wary of the possibility of stock and bond market rotation, with higher requirements for stock selection ability; third, in the aspect of convertible bonds, the weight of valuation protection is increased, with prominent characteristics from bottom to top; fourth, there are still policy dividends in the innovation, but the difficulty of inquiry and the risk of bottom position increase; Fifthly, in the benchmark situation of bond market volatility next year, tail risks such as credit events and "consensus expectation" reversal need to be warned and prevented.

"In a word, fixed income plus products have long-term vitality, but challenges such as stock selection, rotation and prevention of credit tail risk in the next year put forward higher requirements for managers' comprehensive ability." Huatai Securities pointed out.