Cotton Price Sharply Callback, Downstream Rewarming Yarn Price Stable

Last week (September 7-11), cotton price adjustment encountered crude oil, the stock market plummeted, combined with the news that the United States banned Xinjiang cotton, Zheng Mian panic fell nearly 700 points, creating a new low of more than two months. Imported yarn prices continue to rise, forming internal and external inverted, supporting domestic yarn prices, promoting domestic yarn sales, showing a warming sales trend, with prices rising steadily. In August, textile and clothing exports showed positive growth for the first time this year. After the fall of cotton price, the price of yarn was relatively stable, and the profit of spinning production was improved, which was conducive to further recovery of production capacity and increase of cotton consumption. 50t / T, cotton / week increased by 5467 yuan / week. The cotton cncotton B index was 12591 yuan / ton, down 71 yuan / ton weekly. Compared with Zhengzhou cotton CF2009, the rising water was 561 yuan / ton, expanding by 179 yuan / ton.

Futures. After continuous rise, Zheng cotton needs to adjust technically. Cf2101, the main contract, closed at 12590 yuan / ton on Friday (September 11), with a weekly decrease of 280 yuan / ton, with a turnover increase of 46992, an increase of 3.6%, and a decrease of 25355 hands, or a decrease of 6.8%; among the top 20 positions, there were 265155 more orders, an increase of 6699 hands; a short order of 350612, a weekly decrease of 22457; a net clearance of 85457, a weekly decrease of 29156. On the one hand, hedging spot price transaction closed position; on the other hand, speculative short sheet profit closed position, and the clearance decreased significantly. In this round of decline, the decline of Zheng cotton is greater than that of the external market, which has formed a situation of inverted yarn price inside and outside. Although the new cotton will soon be listed, the supply pressure will increase, but during the seed cotton acquisition last year, the trading enterprises made great profits through point price sales. It is expected that this year's acquisition and competition for resources will be more intense, pushing up the cotton price.

External market: affected by the external oil price and stock market decline, ice's main contract in December closed at 64.82 cents / pound, down 29 points in the week.

On the spot. Last Tuesday, Zheng cotton fell sharply, triggering a large number of point price transactions. The trading points of cotton price in Xinjiang of mainland Treasury are mainly in CF2009 contract 12000-11800 yuan / ton, machine picking cotton basis difference is 400-600 yuan / ton, and hand picking cotton is concentrated in 800-1000 yuan / ton. Among the imported cotton, Brazilian cotton was more active because of its better performance price ratio than Xinjiang cotton of the same quality, while Indian cotton increased due to its low price. The price of American cotton was significantly lower than that of Australian cotton, close to Xinjiang cotton, and no three silk was welcomed. Cotton mills still adopt the strategy of "buy as you go" and "buy at low price".

Operation suggestions. This round of decline, China's domestic cotton price fell more than that of foreign countries, and the domestic and foreign yarn prices also showed an upside down situation. Domestic cotton yarn sales recovered, prices stabilized and profits improved. Textile and clothing exports increased by 3.2% in August, reflecting the sustained recovery of exports and cotton consumption. The current cotton price is at a relatively low level, and it is expected that Zheng cotton price may be restored in the short term.