Variations Of Real Estate Growth: From Scale Oriented To Security Logic

Matthew effect, long-term mechanism, silver age, ironing cycle When the property market is gradually labeled with these labels, can the real estate train, which has been flying for 20 years, continue to run all the way?

"The real estate industry has entered a period of steady growth since 2018. In this period of steady growth, if you want to achieve unconventional and leapfrog development, the challenges and risks are much greater than those in the period of rapid growth." This is the answer given by Lin Zhong, chairman of the board of directors of Xuhui holdings, at the Boao 21st century real estate forum held on August 8.

This year, the 20th annual meeting of Boao 21st century real estate forum was held in Shanghai. The theme of the forum is "starting again through the cycle: the safety logic of high quality growth".

In the past 20 years, the real estate industry has grown together with China's economy after China's accession to the WTO. It has not only shared the dividend of the rapid development of the market, but also experienced the pain after the severe regulation. In recent years, we abandon the concept of "high-quality" and "high-quality", and turn to the "high-quality" and "high-quality" concept of enterprises in recent years, and start to pursue the "high-quality" and "high-quality" development mode.

This is also the requirement of industry development. The introduction of long-term mechanism not only irons out the market cycle, but also makes enterprises learn to dance with regulation. In this context, although the market space is still considerable, the "variation" of growth has begun: the scale oriented growth model is declining, and the growth concept of focusing on safety and quality is becoming popular.

The difficulty of scale

The end of the era of high growth, first of all, stems from the change of the general situation. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July this year, the national commercial housing sales area was 836.31 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%; the sales volume of commercial housing was 8142.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1%.

Sales decline, there are epidemic factors. However, in the view of many practitioners, even without the impact of the epidemic, the real estate market will enter a downward cycle under the pressure of the normalization of regulatory policies, and the sales scale of the whole year of this year's real estate market is very difficult to surpass that of last year.

Recently, the central government has repeatedly reiterated the principle of "no speculation in real estate", and also revealed the news that the long-term mechanism of real estate has begun to pilot. This also means that the regulation of the property market has entered the stage of normalization.

Fang Mingfu, CO president of Jinke Co., Ltd., described the future market trend as "fluctuating in a narrow box." in the past, the market had strong periodicity, and the curve fluctuated violently, with obvious peaks and troughs. Now, the market curve will be more relaxed

This relatively gentle market trend is just the phased achievement achieved by the regulation and control. But for real estate enterprises, it seems that the opportunity to catch up with the general trend is difficult to reappear.

Zhang Jinyuan, assistant president of Jindi group and senior vice president of Jindi shopping group, said, "the chances of overtaking on curves will be less and less", because the market has gradually matured. In his opinion, only in the market with drastic changes and fluctuations can the so-called "black horse" appear, and this "black horse" must have some special abilities.

It will take you two hours to catch up with Gobi on foot, but it will take you two hours to catch up with Gobi. Because everyone's speed is similar If the speed is the same, the distance is eternal. " Lin believes that real estate enterprises enter the maturity period in the next 20 years, and the industry pattern they are facing is the same as the current household appliance industry, which is a relatively stable pattern.

So, does this mean that scale no longer matters?

Not really. According to Fang Mingfu's point of view, it is still very important to maintain a moderate scale. "If an enterprise does not have this moderate scale, then in the state of strong Matthew effect, the future living space will become narrower and narrower."

In fact, for many medium-sized real estate enterprises, the dilemma of scale has emerged. Compared with the previous years, the more stable the position of enterprises in sales. A large number of medium-sized real estate enterprises are unable to catch up with the "leaders" and dare not relax in the competition of the same echelon, so they are faced with the situation of "no advance or retreat".

The connotation of high quality

While the scale effect is decreasing, the industry pays more and more attention to high-quality development. Among them, the balance of scale, profit and debt has become the primary issue under the normalization of regulation.

So, what is "high quality"?

At the forum, Wu Jianbin, executive vice president of sunshine city group, gave a speech on the theme of "the basic logic of current high-quality real estate growth". He set three indicators for high-quality growth: performance indicators (sales, settlement income, new land reserves, sales collection, etc.), security indicators (debt ratio, short-term loan proportion, cash proportion, total debt, credit rating, etc.) ）Results indicators (return on net assets, return on investment, etc.).

Wu Jianbin believes that in the current economic uncertainty, and the market is in the horizontal situation, sales is the first priority, even if the loss of profits may be faced.

High quality growth puts forward high requirements for enterprises. Tian Qiang, executive director and CEO of rongchuang China and President of Shanghai regional group, believes that real estate enterprises need to constantly improve their comprehensive ability, not only investment ability, but also operation ability, product service ability and operation ability, so as to transform their advantages into good business results.

In the connotation of high quality development, products and services are equally important.

During the forum, Rand consulting and the 21st century industry research institute jointly released the report on China's real estate product strength. The report points out that "the real estate market has rapidly shifted from oversupply and unbalanced supply and demand to a buyer's market with structural supply exceeding demand".

Song Yanqing, President of Rand consulting, pointed out that "the market will never return to the era when every enterprise and every project can make money; products are the ballast stone for enterprises to avoid overturning in the turbulent market sea, the engine to seize the market and the booster for rapid growth of performance."

It is worth noting that the development of the epidemic has objectively accelerated this process. Zhang Yanhua, deputy general manager of poly Development Holding Group, found that people's attention to health has reached an unprecedented height. According to poly's research, the epidemic situation makes customers pay special attention to the health of the public community environment, such as contactless access, the last 100 meters of express delivery, and the door to door cleanliness. In addition, there is a demand for new facilities in the community.

Zhang Yanhua believes that this not only forces enterprises to further improve service quality, but also creates many new growth points.

In fact, even in the context of the transformation of economic growth momentum, the value of products and services can not be ignored. As an important traditional economic category, real estate is no exception. As Li Jun, executive director and vice president of Greentown China, said, only by constantly improving product and service capabilities and focusing on the future can we effectively help promote domestic demand and promote economic development.