The Property Market Is Full Of Blood Resurrection: The Volume Of Transactions In April Was Close To That Of Last Year.

In May 15th, the National Bureau of statistics issued the "2020 1 - April national real estate development investment and sales" data. Compared with the first quarter of this year, the indicators in April continued to improve, indicating that the real estate market is in a steady warming channel.

In the first half of April this year, the total area of commercial housing sales in China was 339 million 730 thousand square meters, down 19.3% compared with the same period last year. Sales of commercial housing reached 31863 billion yuan, down 18.6% from the same period last year. That is, sales of real estate have returned to over 80% of the same period last year. Among them, sales figures for single month in April are close to the same period last year.

Compared with the commercial housing market, the warming of land transactions is more obvious. Before April, the expenditure of real estate enterprises was 169 billion 900 million yuan, from 18.1% in the first quarter to 6.9%.

The tide is low and confidence is restored. A number of agencies believe that the market will continue to warm up as the depressed demand continues to be released during the epidemic. From May to June this year, the real estate market is likely to usher in a "late spring".

Promoting sales recovery by multiple factors

If we only look at the single month in April, the real estate transaction has basically achieved "full blood resurrection". In April this year, the total area of commercial housing sales was 119 million 950 thousand square meters, only 2.1% lower than that of the same period last year. Sales of commercial housing reached 11498 billion yuan, down only 5% from the same period last year.

Considering that last year was the second highest point in the scale of real estate transactions (area), even in a vertical comparison, the scale of transactions in April this year is still a high level in the same period.

There are multiple reasons for the recovery of the market. In addition to the gradual release of demand from the epidemic, it also includes policy incentives and profit making measures in sales.

At the beginning of the outbreak, government departments at all levels promulgated relevant rationalization policies. By April, the policy began to work at both ends of supply and demand, stressing both increasing supply and stimulating demand. Central Plains real estate statistics show that in 1-4 months of this year, the total number of real estate regulation policies was 238 times, up 45% over the same period last year. Among them, in April, it issued 67 policies of real estate regulation in January.

The agency pointed out that from the perspective of policy content, rescuing enterprises and rescuing the market have become two major characteristics. Among them, the policy of "saving enterprises" focuses on relaxing the payment of land transfer fees and speeding up the pre-sale. In the "save the market" policy, although the contents of the down payment and loosening restriction were mostly stopped, subsidies for buying houses and talents to settle in the new deal still had a positive impact on the market.

In addition, the abundant liquidity environment is also considered to be an important reason for stimulating buyers to enter the market.

At the sales side, although the discount rate of commercial housing in April has been lightened, the price concession is still widespread. According to the announcement, the average selling price of Housing enterprises in April is lower than that of last year, and it is still a common phenomenon.

The revival of sales has eased the capital chain of housing companies. From 1 to April this year, the real estate development enterprises reached 47004 yuan in terms of funds, down 10.4% from the same period last year. The decline narrowed by 3.4 percentage points in the first quarter, narrowing 7.1 percentage points compared to that in 1-2 months.

58 Zhang Bo, the dean of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that although the current liquidity is relaxed, regulators have stressed the strict control of capital flows, and the financing environment of the real estate industry has not been significantly relaxed. Overall, housing companies face greater financial pressure.

"Little spring" will become "late spring"

Under the promotion of various advantages, the recovery of investment terminals is also obvious. From 1 to April, the investment in real estate development in the whole country was 33103 billion yuan, down 3.3% from the same period last year. The decline narrowed by 4.4 percentage points in the first quarter. Among them, residential investment 24238 billion yuan, down 2.8%, the decline narrowed by 4.4 percentage points.

Real estate is one of the fastest recovering industries from the epidemic. Another set of data released on the same day by the Statistics Bureau showed that in the first half of April this year, the decline in fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 10.3%, although it narrowed significantly, but it still maintained a decline of two digits.

In the performance of the investment side, the recovery is most obvious. Recently, due to the introduction of high quality plots in many hot cities, the land market is very hot. In April, cities such as Chengdu, Fuzhou and Tianjin, as well as some cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the big bay area, appeared to compete for land. The price of individual plots exceeds 100 rounds, and the premium rate exceeds 100%.

This situation was further extended in May. In May 15th, long Guang took a 11 billion 597 million yuan maximum price for a residential land in Qianhai, Shenzhen. This is also the third "ten billion land king" born this year after Shanghai and Xiamen.

Statistics Bureau data show that in April of this year, housing enterprises land acquisition area of 31 million 510 thousand square meters, down 12%. However, the expenditure of enterprises has reached 169 billion 900 million yuan, which has dropped by 18.1% from the first quarter of last year to 6.9%.

A large housing company in Beijing told the economic report in twenty-first Century that the company's busy degree was no less than that of last year's market. On the one hand, in order to ensure cash flow, the company emphasizes speeding up sales. On the other hand, due to the abundant budget at the beginning of the year and the high quality and quantity of land, many regional companies have heavy tasks.

According to the person's judgement, the real estate market will continue to warm up to the first half of the year. "There are great potentials for demand release from our projects in several cities."

According to Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, in accordance with the current trend, except for some regions, the real estate market will be fully restored to normal level by May. The "small spring" of the property market, which has been in the market from March to May, may be postponed to May and June.

Statistics from several agencies show that during the May 1 holiday period, the volume of hot urban commercial housing continues to heat up. According to Zhuge search data research center monitoring data, 2020 May Day holiday (May 1st -5 5), the focus of 12 new town housing sales number of 5671 sets, an increase of 77.1% over the same period. Second hand housing, according to shell Research Institute, during the May 1 period, the average daily volume of second-hand housing in 18 cities increased by 60% over the same period.