Data Analysis: Does Zheng Cotton Touch Up Again, Or Is It Quiet? Terminal Demand Is Still Biased. Weak?

Market brief

In September 6th, 11920.0624 tons of resources were sold out of the cotton reserves, with a turnover of 11920.0624 tons, with a turnover rate of 100%. The average transaction price was 11973 yuan / ton, up 203 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the price of 3128 yuan was 13306 yuan / ton, up 261 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. Xinjiang cotton trade average price of 12166 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton discount 3128 price 13604 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton price increase 1269 yuan / ton. The average price of real estate cotton is 11728 yuan / ton, the price of real estate cotton is 3128 yuan, 12929 yuan / ton, and the increase rate of real estate cotton is 594 yuan / ton. From May 5th to September 6th, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves totaled 826 thousand and 100 tons, with a turnover rate of 84.67%. In the nineteenth week (September 9th -9 12 week), the selling price was 12457 yuan / ton (standard price), up 122 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.

The positive macroeconomic boost, Zheng cotton's opening up on Friday, hit the trading limit, the main contract intraday short cut sharply, the transaction increased by nearly 200 thousand hands, coupled with the implementation of the domestic drop in the near future, the financial enthusiasm to boost. Zheng cotton rose sharply, cotton seed prices rose sharply, cotton seed prices fell sharply, cotton mill prices increased, lint prices continued to be stable, demand for cotton linen remained weak, demand for cotton linings was still not improving, cotton mill spot prices rose less power, profit margins were squeezed, the difficulty of running cotton plants increased, Xinjiang cotton was about to go on sale, and the risk of operation of ginning plants increased.

The price of acrylonitrile continues to oscillate sideways, and there is no clear guidelines on the news. The market is trading on a regular basis, and the downstream businesses just need to receive the supporting plates. The mentality of the business is very high, and the price is kept on high. The price is kept high. The situation of low price goods and factory information has not been noticeable. The market is still concerned about the supply side of the new equipment, and the short term acrylonitrile price is still sideways. Acrylic fiber prices continue to be stable, entering the traditional peak season, but the market demand has not improved significantly, the overall trading atmosphere is still mild, manufacturers offer to maintain, wait and see cost side change mainly, the operating rate of 7 into the vicinity, supply and demand to maintain a balance, the lower reaches to maintain just needed replenishment, confidence in the market after the general performance, if there is no new information guidelines, it is expected that the short-term acrylic fiber prices will remain stable.

In September 6th, the people's Bank of China announced that in order to support the development of the real economy and reduce the actual cost of social financing, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points in September 16, 2019 (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies). In addition, in order to promote the support for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, the City Reserve commercial banks, which operate only in provincial administrative regions, have reduced the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage points. They were put into operation two times in October 15th and November 15th, with a reduction of 0.5 percentage points each time. The RRR will release about 900 billion yuan of long-term funds, of which about 800 billion yuan will be released in full, and about 100 billion yuan will be released.

Last week, the Cotlook A index fell to a new low. In September 4th, it was 69.20 cents / pound, the lowest price since May 2016, and the domestic market demand was weak. The price of the cotton dollar outside the port was under pressure, which was affected by the exchange rate. The enthusiasm of spot clearance in the port free trade zone decreased and the US dollar spot was hard to sell. The new cotton production forecast increased in the new year, resulting in persistent pressure on the external market. The impact of Sino US trade war on the global cotton market is also gradually expanding, and the market pays close attention to the progress of the consultations between the two sides.

Recently, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of statistics in August was 49.5%, down from 0.2 percentage points last month. The main characteristics of this month are: first, the continued expansion of production and the overall pressure of market demand. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 17 sectors were located in the expansion area, and 11 sectors rose. Recently, the economic environment at home and abroad is complicated and uncertain, and the new order index is 49.7%, slightly lower than that of last month's 0.1 percentage points. However, the new export orders index is 47.2%, and the annulus ratio has picked up 0.3 percentage points. Two, the development of key industries is stable and the industrial structure continues to upgrade. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries was 51.2% and 50.9%, respectively, which were higher than the total 1.7 and 1.4 percentage points of manufacturing industry respectively. Among them, textile, clothing, apparel and other manufacturing industries maintained a relatively rapid expansion. The three is the expansion of large enterprises and the recovery of small businesses. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.4%, which is higher than the critical point for two consecutive months. It is an important support for the stable development of manufacturing industry. Four, the price of industrial production has dropped. The main raw material purchase price index and ex factory price index were 48.6% and 46.7%, respectively, with a decrease of 2.1 and 0.2 percentage points. Among them, chemical fiber, textile and other manufacturing related price index dropped more obvious.

After several months' work, 2 billion 755 million yuan Cotton Subsidy Fund has been paid to 249 thousand and 500 cotton growers in Akesu. In 2018, the cotton planting area in Akesu was over 720 mu. Since the full payment of cotton subsidy funds in the second half of last year, up to now, the Regional Finance Bureau has issued a total subsidy price of 2018 cotton target price reform of 2 billion 830 million yuan, subsidizing 6 million 369 thousand and 700 acres of cotton planting area and 2 billion 396 million kg of seed cotton sale, has paid 2 billion 755 million yuan of subsidy funds, and completed the payment rate of 97.32%.

On the afternoon of September 5th, at the twenty-first Jiangsu international garment Festival "textile green development" forum, the Jiangsu Textile Industry Association awarded the Yancheng City textile dyeing and finishing Industrial Park "Jiangsu textile green development demonstration zone". Yancheng City textile dyeing and finishing Industrial Park has 68 Textile Enterprises above designated size. In 2018, the textile industry in the region realized the sales revenue of 3 billion yuan, which reached 6 billion yuan this year, and the total output value in 2020 will reach 10 billion yuan. At present, more than 40 products of Sheyang county have been appraised as popular fabrics by the national textile industry development center. The mainstream products are exported to Europe and the United States, the Middle East, Russia, Japan and South Korea, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions, and are widely used in high-end clothing, light luxury home textiles and other industries. It is one of the important industries of Sheyang's export earning foreign exchange, and has successfully opened up the value chain of international high-end textile trade.

China's largest investment project in Brunei, the operator of the comprehensive refinery and petrochemical project of hengyishua petrochemical, 7, announced that the project has officially produced qualified products, and the project has taken a solid step towards full commercial operation. The first phase of the project is about $3 billion 450 million, and the crude oil processing capacity is 8 million tons per year. The crude oil required for the production of the project is Brunei's own oil, while others are imported from the surrounding oil producing countries. After the project is put into operation, the Brunei GDP will increase by US $1 billion 330 million in the first year and create more than 1600 jobs. Heng Yi Industrial (Brunei) Co., Ltd. is a joint venture jointly established by Zhejiang Hengyi group and Brunei government. Hengyi Petrochemical's grand Mora island comprehensive refining and chemical project is one of the flagship cooperation projects between China and the two countries. It will help Brunei industry upgrade, reduce its dependence on oil and gas exports, and further promote economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

Last week, the procurement of enterprises in the lower reaches of the Pakistan market began to increase. The market participants began to adapt to the new sales tax system, and the spot trading volume increased significantly. Pakistan's cotton prices remained stable and were not affected by the further fall in international cotton prices. In the coming period, with the gradual increase of new cotton and the increase of processing capacity of cotton ginning plants, the purchasing demand of Pakistan cotton mill will begin to be released. Under the restriction of India cotton imports, cotton prices in Pakistan are expected to rise. Although the RMB exchange rate has dropped sharply, the number of Chinese buyers has been slightly reduced, but the export price of Pakistan's cotton yarn has not changed. Pakistan polyester staple fiber prices continued to decline, 1.4D polyester staple fiber fell 1.1% to 180 rupees / kg, a year low. The price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline in the future because the price of imported polyester staple fiber is decreasing and the value of RMB is depreciating.

Last week, the price of cotton yarn in India declined because of insufficient demand, especially in the export market. Blended yarn prices fell 1.7%, nearly four weeks, a total decline of 4.5%, nearly three months, a total decline of 15.5%. The price of pure cotton yarn fell by 2% per week, and 30 combed yarn decreased by 12% in the past three months. At present, India's export demand for cotton yarn is sluggish, and China's purchases are few. In July, India's exports of cotton yarn to China decreased by 80% compared with the same period last year, and Pakistan yarn obviously took the upper hand. Pakistan's duty-free exports to China and the Pakistan rupee exchange rate plummeted to stimulate the export of Pakistan yarn to China. India's cotton mill is trapped in the domestic high price circle. On the one hand, the high price will swallow up profits. On the other hand, if the cotton price falls in the first few weeks, the export of India yarn will drop even more. At present, the rupee in India has begun to drop sharply, but the RMB exchange rate is also falling. India yarn exports are almost helpless.