Textile Foreign Trade Enterprises Are Entangled: The Devaluation Of The Renminbi Is Breathtaking, And The Overseas Customers Are Hesitant.

The depressing RMB devaluation is rushing to 7.

According to the China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar in May 17th was 6.8859, down 171 basis points from the previous trading day.

This is the recent small drift.

In May 13th, the offshore RMB devaluation dropped to the 6.90 pass, with a drop of over 550 basis points in the day, a new low since last December. The offshore renminbi has closed at 6.8721 and depreciated by 603 points.

"Unexpectedly, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the 6.9 integer pass."

The head of a textile foreign trade enterprise was astonished.

According to the general understanding, the depreciation of RMB will enhance the international competitiveness of export products. On the basis of the same order price, enterprises can get higher profits through exchange rate difference.

But in fact, the impact of depreciation on foreign trade enterprises is more subtle, not a positive pull effect.

For the above foreign trade enterprises, since the highest execution price set by the enterprise at the beginning of the year is 6.85, if the enterprise settled the foreign exchange at this price, it will suffer the exchange loss of more than 300 base points.

For small and micro enterprises, when the exchange rate fluctuations, do not dare to receive a long list can only receive a short list.

"Compared with the substantial depreciation of the RMB, we would prefer a smooth exchange rate."

The head of the textile and foreign trade enterprise told the Chinese times.

Entangled foreign trade enterprises

In recent years, the plunging exchange rate has wiped out all the gains this year.

Prior to January 3, 2019, offshore RMB closed at 6.8776, reaching a maximum of 6.8944; in May 6th, offshore RMB devaluation dropped to 6.82 mark, and depreciated more than 600 points in the day.

In May 7th, data from the China foreign exchange trading center showed that the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.7614, down 270 basis points from the previous trading day, hitting a new low since February 19th.

In May 13th, the offshore RMB devaluation dropped to the 6.90 pass, with a drop of over 550 basis points in the day, a new low since last December. The offshore renminbi has closed at 6.8721 and depreciated by 603 points.

For some large textile foreign trade enterprises, the depreciation of the RMB has brought more profits for us dollar settlement orders.

For example, the value of a box of export clothing is 50 thousand dollars, before converted into RMB about 310 thousand yuan, after the exchange rate changed, it became 321 thousand yuan, and earned nothing more than 11 thousand yuan.

If the order of hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, exchange earnings will be as high as several hundred thousand yuan.

In response to investors' questions, a listed company secretaries said frankly that the US dollar settlement of the export products and the devaluation of domestic raw materials would benefit the company.

At the same time,

For many companies, however, this devaluation may not be so good.

"

"Another textile foreign trade enterprise official told reporters.

For example, when the exchange rate trend is clear, we can follow the previous contract; however, after the depreciation of the RMB, many customers will have to renegotiate the price, and the negotiation time will be greatly extended. It will be normal to drag for ten days and a half.

This is more common for small and medium-sized textile enterprises with low bargaining power.

For large enterprises, in order to share the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the method of forward settlement is usually adopted, which makes it difficult for large enterprises to enjoy all the advantages in devaluation of the RMB.

If future exchange rate fluctuations are uncertain, enterprises may suffer losses.

The above foreign trade enterprises will set the highest execution price for forward settlement of foreign exchange at 6.85. Under the background of the devaluation of RMB devaluation, enterprises will have to exchange foreign exchange losses at more than 300 basis points at the same price.

This will not only enjoy the benefits of devaluation, but also bring losses.

"

"The above textile foreign trade enterprise official said.

In fact, the depreciation of the RMB will also have a significant impact on imports, resulting in imported inflation.

At present, China relies on imports in terms of oil, agricultural products and other commodities. If it really depreciates, it will lead to a rise in the prices of all kinds of commodities such as grain and oil prices. The era of high inflation will come soon.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, raw materials are all dependent on imports. The rising prices of raw materials will lead to a rise in production costs, which will make SMEs more difficult to survive.

RMB will break seven in the future?

In the eyes of market participants, the devaluation of the renminbi is a reflection of sentiment.

"Fundamentally speaking, the escalation of trade conflicts between China and the United States is a direct trigger for exchange rate depreciation, and the same happened last year.

However, the gap between the US and China's economic fundamentals has narrowed, and the Federal Reserve has also suspended interest rates. The pressure of RMB depreciation has not risen sharply.

Everbright macro research report shows.

Under the background of the rise of Global trade protectionism, trade uncertainty and exchange rate volatility have become the most important concerns of enterprises.

Today, there is still uncertainty in the Sino US trade negotiations. The RMB dollar exchange rate fluctuates again, which is also an important challenge facing foreign trade enterprises.

However, in the macro view of China Everbright, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate at the current level in the short term, but it is unlikely to break through the 7. Once the economic and trade relations between the two countries have eased up, the renminbi may appreciate slightly.

"There is no room for a significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and a significant depreciation.

On the one hand, the renminbi and the US dollar are two sides of a coin. In recent times, the US economy has been weaker than expected in Europe.

The US dollar has a strong volatility but lacks a sustained upward momentum. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate has a phased and limited devaluation pressure.

On the other hand, under the external impact, the RMB exchange rate is more flexible, and mechanical commitment to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate is not very desirable.

Looking back on history, export deceleration is a powerful factor in pushing China to accelerate its reform and adjustment, and export slowdown requires more flexibility in the RMB exchange rate.

Zhong Zhengsheng, a researcher at the University of Monte.

At present, analysts disagree about the future exchange rate trend.

Many people in the industry generally expect that the risk of depreciation in the RMB is still controllable. As long as the domestic economy does not fluctuate significantly, the RMB against the US dollar may not be strong at the beginning of the year, but there will be no significant depreciation.

There is also a view that, at present, the RMB exchange rate should be depreciated in the trade war.

In some foreign media, the sharp depreciation of the renminbi is a counterattack to Sino US trade frictions.

However, as early as at the previous Boao forum for Asia, Yi Gang, President of the Central Bank of China, said that China would not depreciate the renminbi to deal with trade disputes.

"The focus of China's monetary policy is to focus on the domestic macroeconomic situation and serve the real economy.

China's exchange rate mechanism is determined by supply and demand. It is a market determined mechanism. It works well and will continue to run well in the future.

China will not depreciate its currency to deal with trade disputes. "

Yi Gang expresses.