Tight Supply Of Caprolactam And Weakened Demand

After the middle of April, domestic caprolactam faced serious downside pressure. The factory took the lead in reacting, greatly reducing the operating load of the equipment, and the overall supply was tightened, but in this round of confrontation, the demand of the downstream polymerization plant was weakened more directly, and the price of caprolactam was still unable to withstand the light market demand.

按照往年情况来看，国内己内酰胺3月逐步进入需求淡季，价格进入下行通道，今年市场反应确实晚一些，但进入4月中旬后，终端需求持续偏淡，下游聚合工厂库存压力增加，频频通过降负来缓解库存压力，原料接盘意愿开始逐步减弱，而此时己内酰胺价格仍维持14500元/吨左右运行，相较于实际来看，这个价格确实有些偏高，为在行情偏淡下稳定价格，中石化挂牌继续与上月持平，部分工厂开始降负检修，最低甚至仅维持5.5成附近水平，其中：南京东方一条20万吨/年装置虽于4月底重启，但在节后由于装置问题再次停车检修，短期内难以恢复，整体负荷维持4-5成水平运行；浙江巨化由于蒸汽和液氨供应等问题，开工负荷回落至5成左右后逐步回升；阳煤太化装置由于环保等原因，4月22日左右装置短停检修，目前已恢复满负荷生产；锦江科技20万吨/年装置4月20日

From the beginning of the 25 day's operation, the vehicle was restarted and resumed for 7-8 days. Now, the operation of the 350 thousand tons / year device of Yuli Tianchen Yulong is still running at a low load. The 200 thousand ton / year new line of Shandong West Shandong has been shut down since April 29th, and is scheduled to be restarted in May 14th. Jiangsu, Haili 200 thousand tons / year plant is going to stop maintenance in March 26th. It is difficult to resume the 400 thousand ton / year installation of Fujian Shen Yuan in April 16th.

Although the overall supply has basically dropped to a new low in recent years, the demand for the downstream industry chain has continued to drop, and the atmosphere of raw material receiving is depressed. The caprolactam factory has a unstable mentality and a continuous decline. It is expected that the current market will continue until early June, and the price will drop to about 12500 yuan per ton.