Textile Export Pressure Will Continue To Ease In 2017.
For Cotton City, 2016 is the year of spring.
According to monitoring, the domestic cotton market began to rebound strongly in April 2016 after nearly two years of "cliff style" decline.
As of December 31st, the 3128B class price was 15820 yuan / ton, up 22.32% over the same period last year.
In 2016, the State Reserve policy was the core factor affecting the price trend.
In addition, tight supply in the spot market and broad cotton trading in the cotton market are also the reasons for the rise in cotton prices.
In 2016, the chemical fiber sector rose very staggering. According to the monitoring of business associations, the prices of the 14 commodities of the chemical fiber board rose by 13 throughout the year.
There were many bright spots in the textile industry in 2016.
It is reported that in the 21 textile products monitored by the business community, the price of spandex fell, and the rest of the commodities were all red. 16 of them rose by more than 20%.
For the cotton textile market in 2017, under the background of "de Stocking", cotton imports continued to be restricted by quota policy, and cotton city's focus was still on the digestion of national cotton reserves.
According to the latest forecast by the US Department of agriculture, the gap between domestic cotton supply and demand in 2016/2017 will reach 2 million 232 thousand tons, and the new year will continue to be allocated to ensure the supply of cotton.
In terms of demand, cotton yarn enterprises have increased their capital pressure due to the increase of raw materials, and the number of printing and dyeing enterprises has been shut down due to increased pressure on the billet factories.
Terminal demand
Shortage is still a pain spot in the industry.
Sun Kuanghua expects cotton market consolidation before and after the Spring Festival. With the increase in the price of cotton reserves, the overall focus will continue to shift in 2017.
PTA industry prices rose sharply, the annual increase of 21.14%, downstream polyester related products, especially filament products all over the year rose by 35%.
In recent years, the nylon industry has been affected by weak raw materials and weak market demand, and the market has entered a straight line.
The viscose industry is affected by factors such as G20 summit in Hangzhou, strict environmental protection policy and so on. Some factories have been discontinued and their capacity has been further compressed, and supply tensions have intensified.
Overall, the chemical fiber market in 2016 was mainly affected by the cost side shift, its own supply and demand improvement and the reduction in production during the G20 summit in Hangzhou.
In 2017, driven by the acceleration of the balance between supply and demand of crude oil, the cost side of the chemical fiber market is expected to improve.
Its capacity will also focus on eliminating the backward production capacity in accordance with the "13th Five-Year development guidance" of chemical fiber industry and accelerating the resolution.
Excess capacity
。
At present, the scene of the chemical fiber city is improving. In 2017, it is expected to continue the current trend of price rise, and the industry will enter the upstream cycle.
From the perspective of the textile industry, data on textile exports in 2016 are still not optimistic.
In 2016 1~11, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 244 billion 185 million US dollars, down 5% compared to the same period last year.
The total export volume of textiles was 97 billion 162 million US dollars, down 2.60% compared with the same period last year, and the total export volume of garments was 147 billion 23 million US dollars, down 6.51% compared with the same period last year.
However, textile and garment retail sales were slightly warmer. The National Bureau of statistics data showed that in 2016 1~11, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles in China above the limit reached 1 trillion and 277 billion 170 million yuan, an increase of 6.9% over the same period last year.
Xia Ting, an analyst at business and textile industry, believes that
Textile export
The situation has not been improved, but under the influence of the devaluation of the RMB and the construction of "one road area", the textile export pressure will be continuously relieved in 2017.
At the same time, under the strategic background of vigorously implementing the supply side reform in China, the traditional textile manufacturing industry will gradually become capacity oriented and the pace of restructuring of textile industry will be accelerated.
Therefore, the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. There is still room for imagination in the textile market in 2017.
For 2107, the possibility of "mad cow" will become "slow bull", and it is expected that the textile market will show a trend of "first fall, then rise and fall again" in 2017.
For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.
- Related reading
China Cotton Market December Monthly Report: Downstream Demand Is Still Not Optimistic.
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