The Empty Voice Suddenly Rose.

To tell you the truth, I am generally skeptical about the simple summary of historical laws.

There was no reason for him. When he was a child, he studied the story of cutting the boat and pursuing the sword. He always held a distant view on this kind of thing like what he did not.

Lu Xun said that when things were different, things were different.

Every stage, capital market has its own main contradiction.

Firmly grasp the main contradiction is the king's way.

Although investments are made up of various kinds of mistakes, they will not at least make a big mistake.

Take this year as an example, we need to understand one thing: what is the main contradiction in the capital market? Or, what is the main factor that determines the market quotation?

We use nearly five thousand words in the two span, Rhapsody of the bull market, starting from the fundamental driving factors of the stock market, explaining the basis of the current market in detail, and boldly speculate that the driving force of the current market is neither the corporate profits nor the economic cycle, nor the downside of the risk of no wind, but the access of the household sector funds to the market.

"From August 2014 to the present, household sector funds have entered the market on a large scale through leveraged tools such as the matching market, such as the two financial market.

(Note: careful investors will find that the two stages coincide. August and September are the months of pformation and nurture. This is normal. Any new thing will happen in the late stage of the old.

The total amount of data in the allocation market has not been found for the time being, but the scale of the two financial businesses is very clear: after August, it entered the two digit growth period.

By the end of 2014, the balance of financing was close to one trillion, of which about 400 billion came from banks.

People should have principles, and analysts are no exception.

Now that we speculate that this market is a leveraged bull market, which is rooted in the access of banks to funds, then we need to continue to find and study problems along two levers of leverage.

Step one: explain what happened in the past two months.

In the past two months, we can sum up everything in the capital market in two sentences: the index is weak, and the small ones are much larger than the big ones.

Honestly, starting from leverage, it soon came to light.

In January 2015 and February, the CBRC, the SFC and the CIRC took the lead in regulating the leverage bull market, and the amount of funds interconnected with the financing balance decreased significantly. The growth rate of the CBRC decreased significantly and returned to the low speed range before the market started last year.

There is no continuous large scale incremental capital coming in. How can the big ticket move? How can the index rise? There is no opportunity for big ticket. The stock fund will not rest in an honest way. It will only drill holes in the mountain to find opportunities. It is just that the wind of innovation and innovation is rapidly blowing up, and the Internet plus strategy has swept through, so the growth of stocks and small ticket fires has helped to make the wind surge.

You see, this is what happened in the past two months.

Following this logic, we can at least explain the ups and downs and styles.

The most interesting part of the capital market is that everyone likes to shorten the long-term problem.

At the end of December last year, big ticket went up and small ticket fell.

Looking for explanations from the perspective of liquidity promotion, registration system reinventing the valuation system and so on, we are anxious to spend the whole bull market with blue chips.

Today, after two and a half months of two or three fold increase, the story of growth and pformation is once again popular among the people.

Far away from the sky.

Before and after the Spring Festival, the author made a grass-roots survey found that, basically, the hands of the securities companies have been shot.

What are the stock positions of brokerages in general less than five percent? What does it mean? It means that in just two months, investors who have taken the bull market to pledge to marry a brokerage firm have already quietly changed their minds and moved on to the small ticket.

You see, this is ours.

The plan never seems to catch up with the change.

There is no eternal love, only the "covenant" of quick success and instant benefit?

In the long term practical struggle, we have developed the habit of contrasting and forecasting important habits.

They are the most experienced fishermen. They do not need to know where the wind blows tomorrow. They only need to know what to do when the wind comes out.

In order to make our fickle more secure, we must look for various long-term reasons for psychological massage, so when rising, long-term logical short-term is natural choice.

So when falling, putting aside long-term logic is also a natural choice.

However, those of us who are forced to make a living can not do this because the prediction is our main task. If we do not want to lay off, we will have to take the lead.

Before launching the prediction, it is necessary to take the abnormal situation in March for discussion.

At the beginning of March, the rate of growth of financing balance began to increase sharply.

By March 13th, the balance of financing has increased by 13.9% in just ten trading days. If this rate is maintained, the growth of the March balance will exceed 30%, the highest peak since last year. Why did this happen? After four commercial banks' research, we can basically confirm that the reasons are as follows:

First, under the trend of a sharp reduction in the supply of non-standard assets, the downward pressure on the yield of commercial banks' assets yields shows that they have sufficient motivation to deploy assets to all kinds of assets such as the two beneficiary rights, structured assets and other high-yield and stable returns.

Simply put, as long as you continue to control non-standard assets, resulting in reduced supply, all funds will have sufficient power to indirectly enter the capital market to obtain a stable return.

No matter whether the CBRC, the CIRC or the SFC norm can interfere with this trend, it can not change this trend.

You see, the norms have just come to an end, and all kinds of new financial innovations have sprung up like mushrooms.

Second, in 1 and February last year, commercial banks issued a large number of one-year non-standard assets, and then happily put them into their asset pools.

Starting from March this year, these lovely high-yield assets have expired, and the downward pressure on asset pool yields has increased sharply.

In desperation, banks were forced to intensify their efforts to find new high-yield assets.

So far, the least controversial direction is indirect market entry. A large commercial bank has even structured the task of financing to every financial manager.

Lang has feelings and concubines are interested. If there is no accident, the bull market will start a new journey in March.

3478 the gateway will soon be trampled underfoot, and the 4000 point is the gateway that really needs to be conquered in 2015.

The question is, will there be an accident? Of course, since it is a leveraged bull market, any regulation, clean-up and consolidation of the leveraged bull market will trigger a sharp fluctuation in the market before the direct opening of the household sector directly into the market.

At the beginning of this year, the standard "three axes" came from the 4 quarter capital market skyrocketing, which led to an increase in the cost of financing of the real economy.

The SFC is happy that the stock market is rising. The cost of financing in the real economy is rising. The central bank is very depressed. The result of the game is naturally required to regulate.

Will this round of market encounter the same trouble?

At least in the short term, the probability is not large.

Because during the two sessions, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, told the media that capital entering the stock market also supported the real economy.

After entering 2015, economic security 7 has become the number one task of government work.

Financial support for the real economy is no more than two ways, either you can complete by debt financing, or you can complete through equity financing.

Through debt financing to complete, it means that the central bank to take a super loose policy to encourage and even pressure commercial banks to lend money, the last four trillion round of the bad debts of the iceberg is just beginning to take a risk. The risk is obvious. Who dare to do another round? Equity financing does not exist this problem, anyway, you do not have to return it.

Next, let's relax the listing standards. If there are no profitable enterprises, we will have more than 20 IPO per month, and then invest in acquisitions to make investment.

The situation has undergone favorable changes.

Looking at the Chinese stock market from the height of steady growth, you will find that the conditions for the new round of rising are all there.

In the face of the possible rise, what should we take? Completely placing the position in the small ticket system, the risk return is no longer appropriate, at least first of all to achieve balanced allocation.

Specifically, if we reduce it to two industries, we recommend left-hand Finance (mainly Banking) and right-hand military work (Beidou industrial chain).

Without finance, the index will not be able to go through the customs.

Without the Beidou industrial chain, ALPHA income is impossible.

Are you willing to miss the three superimposed things of policy drive + basic industry turnover + imagination?

Finally, it is recommended to focus on two traditional themes: Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

Planning is just around the corner. There may be surprises.