Li Zhilin: Preparing For Next Year'S Impact Of 2800-3000 Points

Since 2008, the bear market in China's stock market has been 7 and a half years.

Compared with the historical trend of the US stock market, the European stock market and the Japanese stock market, the financial crisis, the European debt crisis and the economic crisis are quite different.

What is even more incredible is that in the 30 consecutive years of the global economy leading to a global lead, up to the first half of this year, the Chinese stock market even appeared 1974 points, "13 years of negative growth" (at the end of 2000, 2073 points).

One is the theory of "two engines".

In the past 3 years, the government has only emphasized the development of emerging industries as an "engine" when emphasizing "adjusting structure and pferring mode".

Recently, the theory of "dual engine" has been put forward: we should also tap the potential to open up wasteland and upgrade to high-end manufacturing for traditional industries, so as to make "old trees sprout" and ensure economic stability and safety.

This not only enriched the connotation of the "new normal" theory, increased the power of economic development, but also broadened the hot spots of the stock market, and created a double industrial pformation and upgrading of traditional industries such as gem, small and medium board, and the main board.

Related stocks have begun to perform well in the recent stock market.

The two is the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong.

This is the beginning of the internationalization of RMB and the integration of China's stock market into the international market. It is the beginning of the collision of different investment styles and concepts, especially for A shares, which brings 300 billion capital water.

The 300 billion capital is the zero interest rate cost of the global institutions registered in Hong Kong, and its investment is extraordinary.

Three, the trend of directional easing of monetary policy is more obvious.

Previously, people regarded SLF as a signal of easing monetary policy and a major advantage of the stock market.

However, the central bank's three quarter report unexpectedly disclosed that in September and October, it had invested 769 billion 500 million capital into commercial banks through MLF (medium term lending facility).

This is the signal of overall interest rate cut.

Many domestic and foreign investment banks predict that in 2015, China will not only reduce its overall interest rate but also at least cut interest rates 2-3 times, which will certainly attract more foreign capital and domestic capital to enter the Chinese stock market.

This is the most powerful expectation of turning the stock market into a bull market.

The four is the success of the APEC conference.

At least nine achievements will affect China's future and support China's bull market.

That is to say, China's leading power in the world economy, interconnection or pursuit, the start of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area, the differences between China and the United States, the natural gas agreement between China and Russia, the easing of tensions between China and Japan, the successful negotiation of the Sino Korean trade and the declaration of Beijing's anti-corruption.

After many years of "strong and weak Shanghai", no matter whether people admit it, it has been turned into "Shanghai strong and deep weak".

Judging from the daily turnover, since October 30th, the volume of Shanghai stock market has been higher than that of Shenzhen stock market.

At first, more than 200-300 billion dollars a day, more than 500-800 billion this week.

From the perspective of morphology, the Shanghai composite index is at 2478 points, which is higher than 86 points above the 2392 week average of the 5 week average.

And small and medium-sized board 7684 points, lower than five weeks average 7802 points below 118 points, there are signs of "head"; gem 1441 points, below five weeks average 1493 points below 52 points, there is a sign of "double head".

From the point of view of the hot market, there are many hot topics in the stock market, such as military industry, state capital reform, free trade area, Disney, net assets of listed companies, software information security, high-speed rail, nuclear power and high-end manufacturing.

Small and medium sized boards and gem have gained too much profit in the past two years, so they need to recuperate and will undergo the test of performance, so the hot spots are not clear enough.

From the valuation point of view, the Shanghai stock market's stock market profit rate is only 6 times, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 price earnings ratio is only 8.9 times, and the Shanghai Composite Index earnings ratio is 11 times.

The Shenzhen composite index has a price earnings ratio of more than 30 times, a small and medium board price earnings ratio of 42 times, and a gem price earnings ratio of 69 times.

Shanghai and Hong Kong only enter the Shanghai stock market, foreign capital and continue to create public opinion against small and medium cap stocks, resulting in the pfer of market funds.

So I think the Shanghai and Hong Kong through the end of the period, Shanghai strong and deep weak pattern will be difficult to change.

But it can not be denied that there are many stocks with medium and long term investment value in gem and small and medium board.

Recently, some QFII organizations have vigorously publicized the investment styles and ideas of the A share market will turn to big blue chips after the Shanghai and Hong Kong Exchanges. Meanwhile, the bubble of small and medium-sized shares in the gem and small and medium sized boards will soon be shattered, and will continue to be left out in the cold market and enter a long-term bear market.

I don't think it will be possible in a couple of years.

Because after the Shanghai and Hong Kong Exchanges, even with QFII and RQFII, only about 800000000000 of the funds, accounting for only 3% of the market value of A shares, it is impossible and unable to guide the entire A share market institutions and investors to fry blue chips. Unlike QFII, which accounts for over 30% of the market value in other markets, it can change the concept of local investors.

4, try not to guess "head" as little as possible.

In my opinion, it is imperative for investors to change the bear market thinking and strengthen the bull market thinking when deciding the market.

A bear market requires careful study of the head, because a large head usually saves a year or two.

While entering the bull market, we should desalt "head thinking".

Bull markets also need to study economic fundamentals, policies, funds and main actors.

Today, the 1 trillion and 30 billion capital fund is no longer the main force in the market, and the more than 10000 billion yuan super agency big family is the biggest market force.

Their intentions and actions determine the direction of the market.

No one can cut meat in the bull market, so we need to study the average shareholding cost of the market.

The head is fleeting.

I remember that when 2009 turned 3478 to the head, it was above 3400 points and closed for 1 days.

In 2013, when 2444 became head, the top 2400 points only closed for 1 days.

Now, at the top of the 2400 point, it has been closed for 11 days, 2430 days have closed for 7 days, and 2450 points are closing 5 days. How can this area form a head? How can 2508 points keep pace with the bull market?

5, look at the possible concussion at the end of the year.

Every year 10-11 months, I emphasize "autumn robbery" and win the victory.

This year alone, because I asserted that I had entered the bull market, I adjusted the meaning of autumn robbery.

That is to say, the profits of the gem and small and medium board stocks in the past 2 years are mainly taken as security; in the main board, there are hot stocks with endogenous growth and exogenous growth; 70% positions and 30% funds are maintained; in case of a sharp drop, the warehouse will still be reduced to the original warehouse when it is in a rush; the high point in the year is likely to be in the 2500-2600 interval.

Even if there is a sharp concussion in the delivery of the stock market, the purchase of new shares, the closing of the financing market and the year-end closing of some institutions, there will be some strong stocks in the motherboard.

Therefore, we must strengthen the thinking of the slow cow, strengthen the operation of the band, strengthen the selection of individual stocks, take a positive look at the Shanghai and Hong Kong links, and make preparations for the next 2800-3000 shocks.