Textile And Garment Performance Slowdown, Casual Wear To Inventory Close To The End

< p > textile and garment industry continued to slow down in three quarter earnings and earnings growth in 2013, and its overall performance was slightly lower than expected.

The first three quarters were affected by the downturn in terminal consumption, and the overall growth of the textile and garment industry was weak.

From our three quarterly report, Shen Wan textile and apparel key companies in the first three quarters of 2013 increased revenue 8%, net profit growth 5%, revenue and net profit growth continued to slow down.

< /p >

< p > < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > clothing home textiles < /a > enterprise income increased by 11% compared with the same period last year, net profit decreased by 3% compared with the same period last year, dragging down the overall plate performance.

The income of textile manufacturers increased by 4% compared with the same period last year, and net profit increased by 64% over the same period last year.

(1) casual wear industry: channel and report inventory after 2 years of cleaning up is currently at a benign level, the overall accounts receivable, cash flow is relatively healthy, Semir clothing performance has been positive, the United States is expected to appear next year clothing performance inflection point.

(2) home textile industry: affected by the downturn of terminal consumption, the growth of terminal demand is slowing down. Fuanna improves gross profit through the improvement of production efficiency in the situation of slowing income. The three quarterly earnings growth of Luo Lai home textile is slightly lower than that of the Chinese newspaper. However, the spring and summer ordering will increase by about 10% over the next year.

(3) men's clothing industry: in the low period of the industry to join a relatively high and high rate pricing characteristics and other obstacles to the pformation of enterprises, the three quarter terminal sales continued to slow down, revenue and net profits have further slowed down.

(4) high-end women's clothing: it's obvious that the store has been upgrading meticulous, but the cost is still high.

(5) export manufacturing: three quarterly report performance on the basis of low technology last year, improved by external demand and narrowing of cotton price difference at home and abroad, steady growth in revenue, and net profit was greatly improved by gross margin.

< /p >

< p > three the companies whose quarterly reports exceed expected are: Pathfinder, Lu Tai, YOUNGOR and fuanna.

The companies whose performance is lower than expected are: good news birds, Hinur, card NDI Road, search for special, LAN Zi share, Hua Si stock, Luo Lai home textile, Saturday, AOKANG international, Weixing share, Shanghai Jahwa.

The decline was 49%, Semir's clothing grew by 16%, and the average growth rate in 2014 was 17. (2) the growth rate of the home textile industry was 17 times; (2) the growth rate of the home textile industry maintained a low growth rate; the growth rate of the household textile industry decreased by 6%; the Meng Jie household textile product increased by 9%, and the average PE in 2014 was 13 times. (3) most of the enterprises in the men's wear industry showed a decreasing trend in net profit, and the net profits of the majority of enterprises in the men's clothing showed a decreasing trend. The decline of the seven wolves, the decline of the nine herdmen, the decline of the birds, the growth of the YOUNGOR Road, the increase of YOUNGOR, the decrease of 48%% by PE, and the average PE of 2014 were 1 times. From the perspective of performance growth and Valuation: (1) the quality of casual wear enterprises' earnings continues to improve, and is expected to get out of the low industry first.

(5) in the outdoor sports, the growth rate of the Pathfinder is 74% higher than expected, and the valuation is still higher than in 2014. In 2014, it was 20 times higher than that in 2014; (5) the international performance of footwear in the footwear industry decreased by 30% compared with the same period last year, and it decreased by 37% on Saturday, and the average PE in 2012 was 13 times; (5) in textile manufacturing, the growth rate of Lu Tai was 47%, the growth rate of Hua Fu was 101%, the growth rate of broong East was 110%, the growth of Weixing shares was 110%, and the average 2014 was PE.

< /p >

< p > the quality of the leisure apparel industry will be improved, and the home textile order will be negative.

Casual wear is the industry that began to adjust at the beginning of 2010. After two years' clearance of channel inventory, the overall profit quality has improved to a healthy level. It is expected that next year it will be able to go on the cheap and usher in a turning point on the basis of low base.

The domestic textile industry has cleared inventory after a year of adjustment. The terminal inventory of the channel is basically controllable. Recently, home textile leading orders will be held one after another. Leading enterprises, Luo Lai and fuanna, will have an increase of about 10% on the basis of low base numbers, and will resume growth next year.

Men's clothing industry is relatively late, high pricing rate and a relatively high share of the enterprise pformation has some resistance, profit turning point still needs to wait.

< /p >

< p > investment suggestion: pay attention to < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > casual dress < /a > and the recovery process of home textiles, focusing on O2O innovation and pformation enterprises.

From the perspective of investment logic, we believe that the electricity supplier is a trend that the garment industry can not ignore. The future of O2O integration will not only stay on the concept. Some of the forward-looking enterprises are trying to integrate online and offline. We should give higher valuation premium to these enterprises.

< /p >

< p > the recent adjustment of the clothing sector has been affected by the negative factors which are lower than expected in the three quarter. We do not think it should be overly pessimistic. The expected difference in the clothing industry has narrowed this year. It is expected that in the first half of next year, some sub sectors such as casual wear and home textiles will be able to go back to light and restore growth after cleaning up the channel stores. They recommend the American Apparel and Semir clothing for the casual wear industry, the home textile industry's Luo Lai home textile, fuanna, and the A of the cotton spinning industry.

This year, the company is actively pforming and innovating, launching new products and store images, and actively exploring the electricity supplier and O2O.

< /p >