Current Situation Of Cotton Market

< p > < strong > 1, < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as > futures market < /a > Review < /strong > /p >

< p > because of the lack of liquidity in the domestic spot market under the influence of the policy, Zheng cotton in July was relatively stable. But during the two straight period, the cotton price has dropped sharply in the short term, but it has been technically revised and then returned to the concussion zone near 19800.

The trend of US cotton is narrowly fluctuated by the main production area weather and the expected change in China's demand. On the whole, the trend of internal and external cotton is relatively stable in July.

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< p > Chart 8: Zheng Shang CF1401 contract daily chart (unit: yuan / ton) yuan / ton) < /p >

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< p > Chart 9: the US cotton December contract day chart (unit: cents / pound) < /p >

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< p > < strong > two, market analysis and outlook < /strong > < /p >

< p > < strong > (1) spot prices continue to slump < /strong > < /p >

< p > July, spot cotton prices were stable, the market was still weak, the amount of cotton reserves increased, and the proportion of imported cotton was high. In late days, the number of commercial auction was reduced due to the tight credit of banks.

The traditional off-season has not yet ended, the downstream enterprises to maintain production, high quality yarn sales are slightly better, the sale of medium and low yarn varieties are not good.

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< p > Chart 10: comparison of China's Cotton (19765, -20.00, -0.10%) price index and CotlookA index (unit: yuan / ton) < /p >

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< p > < strong > (two) storage situation < /strong > < /p >

< p > July 31st, in the end of the year, the total amount of the total listing was 15055184.81 tons, and the total turnover was 3715956.874 tons, with a total turnover ratio of 24.68%.

Cotton imports totaled 955564.9048 tons.

From the view of the whole enterprise's receiving and inventory, the new cotton market can be basically used.

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< p > < strong > (two) the growth of new cotton in China. The output of new cotton is expected to decline, picking or postpone < /strong > /p >

The recent survey of the national cotton market monitoring system on the cotton growth trend of the national cotton market showed that by the end of June, the overall cotton growth trend was slightly worse than the same period in the previous year. The picking time of Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Xinjiang was delayed 5-9 days, and the average cotton output in 2013 was estimated to be 102.9 kg / mu, 1.1% lower than that of the previous year, and the total cotton output in 2013 was expected to be reduced by 4.4%.

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< p > < strong > (three) < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile > /a > product a target= "_blank", "_blank" > "clothing" > export and retail improvement is not obvious.

< p > June, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 5.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was relatively low.

Among them, exports of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and articles) increased by 9.7% compared to the same period last year, and exports of clothing (including garments and accessories) increased by 2.7% over the same period last year.

Over the same period, the total retail sales of our clothing < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > shoes < /a > hat and knitwear increased by 15% over the same period last year, down 5.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

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< p > strong > (four) cotton yarn import volume is high, domestic cotton yarn production is weak, < /strong > < /p >

< p > June 2013, China's cotton yarn imports 145 thousand and 300 tons, a decrease of 15.39%, an increase of 34.09% over the same period last year.

Pakistan cotton yarn imports 42 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 8.19% over the same period, 35 thousand and 800 tons of imported cotton yarn in India, an increase of 9.32% over the same period last year, 20 thousand and 300 tons of imported cotton yarn, an increase of 37.67% over the same period last year, 10 thousand and 900 tons of cotton yarn imported from Taiwan, China, an increase of 8.47% over the same period, and 4 thousand and 900 tons of imported cotton yarn in Indonesia, an increase of 168.03% over the same period last year.

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< p > according to statistics, China imported 964 thousand and 700 tons of cotton yarn in 2013, an increase of 45.88% over the same period last year.

Pakistan cotton yarn imports 301 thousand and 100 tons, an increase of 17.77% over the same period, 268 thousand and 100 tons of imported cotton yarn in India, an increase of 120.9% over the same period last year, 101 thousand and 300 tons of imported cotton yarn, an increase of 36.99% over the same period last year, 62 thousand and 400 tons of cotton yarn imported from Taiwan, China, an increase of 6.25% over the same period, and 27 thousand and 200 tons of imported cotton yarn in Indonesia, an increase of 162.39% over the same period last year.

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At the same time, domestic yarn production slowed down. In June, cotton yarn output increased by 5.4% over the same period last year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year and a 5.4% decline in cotton production. This is the first decline in cotton production in the past 8 years in at least 8 years in June.

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< p > strong > (five) the growth of American cotton was slower than that of the same period last year < /strong > /p >

< p > as of July 21, 2013, the cotton bud rate in the United States was 77%, down from 88% in the same period last year and 83% in the same period in the past five years.

The boll rate of cotton in the United States was 27%, down from 45% in the same period last year and 42% in the same period in the past five years.

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< p > < strong > (six) global cotton supply and demand situation < /strong > < /p >

< p > according to the July global cotton supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture (USDA), the total output of cotton in the next year is 25 million 695 thousand tons, an increase of 186 thousand tons compared with June, a consumption of 23 million 905 thousand tons, a reduction of 83 thousand tons, and a stock of 20 million 539 thousand tons at the end of the year, with an increase of 402 thousand tons.

It is estimated that 26 million 399 thousand tons of global cotton output this year will be increased by 60 thousand tons compared with the previous forecast, consumption of 23 million 379 thousand tons, reduction of 157 thousand tons, and ending inventory of 18 million 632 thousand tons, with an increase of 140 thousand tons.

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Last month, China and the United States adjusted the data as follows: China's annual output is expected to be 7 million 620 thousand tons, 7 million 838 thousand tons of consumption, 4 million 355 thousand tons of imports, 10 million 888 thousand tons of final inventory, and 138.74% of inventory consumption, unchanged from last month.

The output of the United States was 3 million 770 thousand tons, unchanged; consumption of 751 thousand tons, unchanged from last month; export volume of 2 million 896 thousand tons, reduction of 65 thousand tons; ending inventory of 849 thousand tons, an increase of 65 thousand tons; and inventory consumption of 23.28%.

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Since P 2010/11, global cotton production has been higher than consumption, but global production in 2013/14 will decline from 26 million tons to 25 million tons, the lowest level in nearly three years.

Although the end of the year inventory (China and other regions) will still be divided, the proportion of China's final inventory in the next year will still be close to 60%.

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< p > < strong > three, medium term trend analysis and operation suggestion < /strong > < /p >

< p > 2012 cotton year draws to a close. At the end of July, before the end of the cotton storage policy, the textile enterprises actively bid, raw materials inventory was replenished, which reduced the worry of cotton shortage in later stage.

In contrast, the cotton market is relatively balanced, and it is expected that domestic cotton prices will continue to be stable in the short term.

8, September entered the critical period of cotton growth and picking. The influence of late weather on cotton quality is more critical, especially the disastrous weather may lead to a decline in the color level of cotton, thus affecting the storage and sale of cotton, which needs close attention.

In addition, the early rumors that cotton will be directly supplementation in 2014/15 will bring about a sharp fall in the price. Although the policy is still early, it is also necessary to guard against the hype of the policy.

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