A Reversal Of China'S Foreign Trade Situation In July

< p > < strong > July, China's "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > foreign trade < /a > situation reversed.

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< p > August 8th, the foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in July, the total value of foreign trade amounted to US $354 billion 100 million, an increase of 7.8% over the same period last year, and exports of US $185 billion 900 million, an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year, and imports of US $168 billion 100 million, up 10.9% over the same period last year.

The growth rate of imports and exports rebounded sharply compared with that of last month.

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< p > in addition, the customs information network released a detailed foreign trade report yesterday, excluding the trade impact of "one day tour". It predicted that the total import and export volume of China in the first half of this year was 19332 billion US dollars, while the figures released before were 1 trillion and 997 billion 690 million US dollars, with a difference of 64 billion 400 million dollars between them.

In an interview with reporters, experts said that China's new policy had no longer applied to export inspection of some commodities, and that the false trade behavior might be on the way again when it brought convenience to the passage of goods. Moreover, in the second half of the year, the export sector still faced a strong RMB exchange rate and relatively weak demand for foreign orders.

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< p > < strong > July import and export from negative to positive < /strong > < /p >

Economists have predicted that foreign trade data will show a warming trend in July, but imports and exports increased by 10.9% and 5.1% respectively. This is far beyond the 2.9% and 3.5% forecast mean, which is more significant than the double negative growth of -0.7% and -3.1% in June.

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P, chief economist of Communications Bank, told reporters in July that the import and export data showed a certain degree of recovery to bilateral trade between the United States and the European Union, which was stimulated by the recent seasonal warming of consumption and production activities in overseas economies and China's overall rebound in exports to the US, Japan and Europe.

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< p > data show that bilateral trade between China and the European Union, ASEAN and the United States is more active. In July, bilateral trade with the major trading partners declined only to Japan, bilateral trade between China and Europe increased by 5%, bilateral trade between China and the United States increased by 10%, and bilateral trade with ASEAN increased by 13.1%.

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< p > Hu Yifan, chief economist of Haitong international, believes that exports in July were mainly driven by strong exports from ASEAN countries, and exports to ASEAN countries rose the most, reaching an increase of 21.3% over the same period last year, representing a substantial increase compared with the 10.2% increase in June. "The rebound in exports to the EU is related to the recent agreement between China and Europe in the dispute over the export of solar panels.

In all export categories, the export volume of "a target=" _blank "href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/ "> clothing > /a" and high tech products increased by 13.9% and 3.6%, respectively, and their exports in June increased by 2.6% and -3.1% compared to the same period last year.

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< p > at the policy level, the government has announced key policies to support exports.

In July 24th, the eighteenth executive meeting of the State Council adopted the "opinions on promoting steady growth and structural adjustment of imports and exports".

Hu Yifan, chief economist of Haitong international, said that the Ministry of finance has also put forward some measures to improve the comparative advantage of the strategic industry. It is expected that the import and export data will be accompanied by demand recovery and supportive policies in the second half of this year.

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< p > on the other hand, the sharp rise in the RMB exchange rate will affect the export of enterprises. In the first 6 months, the RMB exchange rate rose fiercely, and the intermediate price rose by 1068 basis points, or nearly 2%.

However, since the beginning of July, the expectation of appreciation has cooled markedly, and the first depreciation has occurred in the year. This is also considered as one of the factors to promote exports.

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< p > China's trade has increased significantly in terms of imports.

Total imports amounted to US $168 billion 100 million, rebounding from -0.7% in June.

Lian Ping said that imports grew faster in July. On the one hand, it was related to the relatively large volume of crude oil imports. Meanwhile, the rise in crude oil prices played a stimulating role in the total import volume.

Huang Sheng, a well-known career investor, said in an interview with reporters that the substantial increase in imports is not only related to the substantial increase in the price of crude oil, but also to capital outflows.

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< p > < strong > half a year "one day tour" trade $64 billion 400 million < /strong > /p >

Before P, the relevant departments of the state promulgated a series of measures to curb trade growth.

Under severe pressure, the mainland's exports to Hongkong fell by 7.7% in May, down 29% compared with April, while the decline in June narrowed to 7%, but the mainland's import and export data both showed negative growth in that month.

By July, the total value of bilateral trade between the mainland and Hongkong was 29 billion 280 million US dollars, an increase of 2.8%.

Faced with the overall warming of the data, experts said that the possibility of false trade could not be ruled out after the relaxation of the crackdown.

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"P" is unique. The customs information network sponsored by the customs information center of the General Administration of Customs directly released the first half of 2013's economic situation and China's import and export trade situation analysis report (hereinafter referred to as the "report"). In the first half of 2013, the total value of China's imports and exports was 12 trillion and 500 billion yuan, equivalent to 1 trillion and 997 billion 690 million US dollars, an increase of 8.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

The report focuses on the "one-day tour" trade in China. The conclusion is that the growth rate of China's import and export trade fluctuated greatly during the first half of the year, and the monthly fluctuation was relatively large.

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In January, the import and export volume reached 345 billion 840 million US dollars, an increase of 26.8%. By February, the growth rate of import and export has dropped sharply, the total volume of imports and exports has increased by 1%, and the ratio has decreased by 23.8%. In March, the import and export trade rebounded and increased by 12.1%; in April, the growth rate of import and export volume continued to climb; in May, the import and export trade had an inflection point, and the growth rate dropped sharply, up only 0.4% from the same period last year; the import and export trade in June continued to decline, and both imports and exports showed negative growth, of which the export growth rate dropped by a large margin, a decrease of 3.1% compared to the same period last year.

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< p > the report said that the sharp fluctuations in the first half of the year's a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > export data < /a > were mainly affected by the "one day tour" trade. The first 4 months' one-day visit to Hong Kong pushed up the overall trade performance. If the effect of "one-day Tour" was eliminated, the total import and export volume in the first half of this year was US $1 trillion and 933 billion 200 million, an increase of 5.1% over the previous year, and 3.5 percentage points lower than that of 8.6%.

That is to say, "one day tour" has affected 3.5 percentage points of import and export trade, a total of $64 billion 400 million trade.

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< p > < strong > bonded area into "one day tour" disaster area < /strong > < /p >

< p > previously, the media reported that cross-border capital was used to arbitrage in the mainland through the use of "false trade" to quote the unit price of high export products, which is also a common practice.

The report also confirms that the frequent entry and exit of the same commodities between the mainland and Hongkong, in addition to the promotion of local governments, is a deeper reason for the pursuit of profits by capital.

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< p > since the beginning of this year, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has risen by 1.52%. The strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the significant spread between domestic and overseas have attracted tremendous interest in overseas hot money. "One day tour" has been magnified as the carrier of hot money influx.

Song Hong, director of the International Trade Research Institute of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview that arbitrage demand is the most important reason for the frequent entry and exit of the same commodities between the mainland and Hongkong.

He said that local government promotion may also be one of the reasons, some parts of the foreign trade growth data can not be completed, will do some virtual trade activities.

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< < p > > the report analyzes the customs area of "one day tour" in Hongkong, and finds that about 70% of the customs special supervision regional trade occurs in Futian Bonded Area. Because of geographical location, it can be judged that the commodities of "one day tour" are basically in and out of Shenzhen Hongkong.

According to the report, in the month end of 1~6 month, Taiwan was the only place in the final distribution of imports imported from Hong Kong in the customs special supervision area. It ranks second in the mainland, accounting for 27% of the total, and has become the main commodity source of the "one day tour" trade. While the mainland and RTHK trade surge in 1~6 month is the same as "one day tour", Hongkong, as the pit point, mainly assumes the function of distributing goods, while Taiwan, where the electronic production is concentrated, mainly plays the role of "one day tour".

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< p > at present, the State Council has promulgated 12 measures to promote exports, from August 1st to the end of 5 months, exempting export inspection fees, requiring customs to speed up customs clearance, and requiring financial institutions to cooperate with foreign trade enterprises in financing.

At the same time, AQSIQ no longer implements export inspection for 1507 commodities.

These measures will facilitate the export of trading companies and increase the number of orders.

However, some people in the industry believe that this means that the passage of goods is more convenient, and that the false trade behavior may rise again.

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Huang P, a famous career investor, said in an interview with reporters that there was a big rebound in trade data in July. Whether he had a question mark about whether the water had to be relaxed because of the crackdown.

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