The Market Structure Of Cotton Has Evolved Due To The Evolution Of Policy And Grasped Market Structural Opportunities.

In the new

In the year, the cotton market is still facing the problems of oversupply and demand, the double track operation of purchasing and storing, throwing and storing, the huge difference between inside and outside cotton prices and the unusually difficult operation environment of spinning enterprises.

The macro environment is stable and weak. The cotton trend depends on the industry itself.

The international macro level mainly focuses on the US dollar trend and consumer demand.

Considering the modest recovery of the US real economy, the long run of the European debt crisis and the inflation pressure of the United States, the QE3 is expected to continue to strengthen.

Because of the negative correlation between us dollar and commodity, this is an external negative factor for cotton price.

In terms of consumption, the European and American markets are the main market, and the US market is expected to remain stable. European market demand is expected to continue to shrink as the EU economy enters a technological recession and the euro continues to appreciate against the renminbi.

The domestic macro environment is expected to be stable.

In the next two years, the new and old government will be changing. During this period, China's policies will remain stable.

Such factors should be taken into account in the policy of purchasing, storing, throwing, storing and exporting cotton.

For textile industry, textile enterprises are generally under great pressure, but management seems not pessimistic.

Moreover, the impact of textile enterprises on the overall economy is not as serious as it used to be. At the same time, the textile industry has some pollution.

Therefore, some supportive policies which are widely appealed in the industry are hard to come true.

From this perspective, the recovery of the textile industry is more a market process, and only if the market demand really starts, and the cotton price difference between the inside and outside is reasonable, the textile industry's recovery will have a solid foundation.

Storage and storage or simultaneous operation, and market logistics and price forecasting are two track operation.

Cotton will be on sale in September in the new year. When the purchase and storage price is as high as 20400 yuan / ton and the open purchase will take place, the new cotton will flow to the storage instead of selling to the market. Meanwhile, the market demand for cotton will be mainly supplied by throwing and storing, and the spinning enterprises will also prefer the cheaper throwing cotton.

In this way, market logistics will operate in two tracks.

After considering the profit of 3% to 5% cotton traders, the price of new cotton is less than 19400 - 19800 yuan / ton, and there will be enough purchasing power, which will become the policy bottom of the spot price of new cotton.

Once the storage is phased or stopped, new cotton will flow into the market, which will create enormous pressure on the market price.

If most of the new quilts are acquired and the import quotas are running out, the market will rely more on dumping.

The price of cotton depends on the intensity of throwing and storing.

In view of the current macro environment and market situation, it is estimated that the storage and purchase will be smooth before December, and the spot price will depend on the dumping and storage. After December, the storage will be tight and the spot price will be under pressure.

During the period, there will be 1 million to 2 million tons of dumping and storage. The rhythm and intensity of dumping will also affect the spot price.

It is possible to increase the direct subsidy policy after the policy of collection or storage is difficult to continue.

In the current environment, the existing policy of collection and storage is unsustainable.

After this year's acquisition and storage, it is estimated that there will be huge stocks in the State Reserve next year.

Listing, storage and purchase may be restricted by storage capacity. At the same time, the current policy of purchasing and storage also makes the country face huge financial burden and market risks.

In addition, the huge internal and external cotton price difference makes China's textile export enterprises lack competitiveness, and the purchase and storage policy is the root cause of the difference in cotton prices between inside and outside.

Direct subsidy policy can also effectively protect farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton, and safeguard the safety of national cotton planting.

If the direct subsidy policy can be implemented, it will enable the cotton industry to achieve Marketization from the acquisition of seed cotton links, thus giving full play to the advantages of market allocation of resources.

After the marketization of cotton prices, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices will be narrowed, even with the international market, and the competitiveness of domestic textile will also be greatly restored.

Market structure evolves due to policy evolution and grasps market structural opportunities.

The smooth operation of the market will be

The basis of regulation and the pace and intensity of policy adjustment will in turn affect the structural changes of the market.

Due to the structural contradiction between supply and demand, the rhythm change of storing and throwing, the double track operation of new and old cotton and the huge price difference between inside and outside cotton, the market will continue to deduce various structural opportunities in the second half of the year.