Analysis Of The Recent Negative And Advantageous Factors In The Domestic And Foreign Markets Of Cotton City

The international of many factors:

1, market rumors to the United States cotton continued to rise, the domestic electronic disk small rise response.

Recently, there is a rumour that China will import 1 million tons of cotton and cotton, which is boosted by the news. Recently, the external market has been rising continuously, and the domestic electronic disk has gained a slight rebound, but the overall rebound is less than the external market.

2.

Sales data are good, triggering long entry into the market.

According to the weekly cotton export weekly report, the US signed a net export of 180 thousand tons of land cotton this year, of which China signed 170 thousand tons.

The data is good, triggering a long march.

3, the market speculation at the end of the month USDA reported the actual planting area of the United States cotton.

As the month drew near, the market began to hype the actual planting area of the new year announced at the end of the month.

The market is expected to be lower than the previous survey in March.

4, the Greek crisis is temporarily relieved.

With the victory of the Greek democratic party in the election, the possibility of Greece's retreat to Europe is sharply reduced, and the market tension has been alleviated.

The future of the Greek economy depends on the fiscal policy of the new party and the guidelines for the G20 summit.

Domestic factors:

1, spot real estate inventory of cotton lint is not much, it is expected that later supply and demand is tight.

If the enterprise started to stock lint from the end of last year, the interest and storage cost would be about 200 yuan per ton per month. Up to now, at least 1000 yuan per ton of lint enterprises will cost more.

Some enterprises believe that they are better off than losing money now.

At present, there are not many cotton stocks in the enterprise, and the cotton grade of the enterprises with inventory is also slightly higher. The enterprises expect that the demand will increase during the late new and old year alternation period, so they do not plan to sell at a low price for the time being.

2, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton is still large, but there is no quota.

In June, 20 China cotton price index 328 grade lint 18325 yuan / ton, the imported cotton price index M grade price 87.40 cents / pound, the next port pick up price 14606 yuan / ton, the difference between inside and outside price 3719 yuan / ton.

The difference between the inside and outside cotton prices is large, which is obvious to all in the industry. It is also salivating for this cake. But it is too anxious to eat hot tofu. The quota of textile enterprises is scarce. At present, the cotton stocks in the port are large. Simply speaking, it is difficult to inflow into the mainland market because there are too few imports and more. Therefore, to a certain extent, this may boost the post market cotton market.

International:

1, global consumption has not improved.

According to the next year's inventory consumption ratio released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in June, it is estimated that the total output of the world's cotton will be 25 million 102 thousand tons in the next year, the consumption volume will be 23 million 734 thousand tons, the import and export volume will be about 8 million 50 thousand tons, the final inventory will be 16 million 222 thousand tons, and the global inventory consumption ratio will be 68.35%, which is 4.91 percentage points higher than that of the current year.

The global cotton consumption ratio reached a 30 year high.

2. Decline of textile cotton

Now some textile mills reduce production capacity. At present, spring wheat is drying up, and factories are giving workers vacation to go home for farming.

Europe and the United States economy is weak, consumer demand has slowed down significantly, the total volume of textile orders in Europe and the United States has decreased.

According to statistics, in 2011 9-2012, May, the output of cotton cloth in China totaled 28 billion 340 million meters, a decrease of 420 million meters compared with that of the previous year, with a reduction of 1.46%.

In recent years, the EU has substantially reduced the number and treatment of trade preferences and adopted trade restrictions to restrict trade exports from developing countries, which further exacerbated the trade predicament of Chinese export enterprises.

3, uncertain economic environment at home and abroad

The result of the Greek congressional election was announced. The crisis of Greece's withdrawal from the euro area was temporarily lifted, but the optimistic market was unsustainable. On the 18 day of the local time, the Spanish ten year treasury bond yield broke through the dangerous level of 7%, causing the market to worry.

Analysts say that the EU has enough funds to keep Greece in the euro zone, but if neither Spain nor Italy can finance itself in the market, then the EU may not be able to raise enough funds to provide financial assistance to them. Under such circumstances, the break-up of the euro area will become possible.

At present, Spain is a big uncertainty factor in the global economy, and the risk of financial market will keep rising until the bank capital restructuring plan and the cost of sovereign debt financing are clear.

Domestic factors:

1. China's import or innovation is high this year

In September 2011 -2012 May, China imported 4 million 252 thousand and 900 tons of cotton, an increase of 2 million 162 thousand and 200 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 103.43%.

In 1-5 months of 2012, China imported 2 million 579 thousand and 300 tons of cotton, an increase of 1 million 373 thousand and 400 tons compared with the same period, an increase of 113.9%.

If late imports remain high, total imports will exceed 5 million tons this year.

2, enterprises to import yarn

Some enterprises are unable to bear the high priced real estate cotton, and the quota can not get more. Instead, they turn their attention to the low import price.

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According to statistics, as of April, 2011/12 cotton year (2011.09-2012.04) China's total imports of 792 thousand tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 15.86% over the same period.

3, warehouse receipts pressure is still larger.

The number of warehouse receipts on Zheng cotton futures has not been reduced, the amount of warehouse receipts is still more, and the pressure of the real market is bigger.

Uncertainties:

1. Late new cotton growth and speculation weather

7. In August, the key month for cotton growth is closely related to the weather. The weather will become the focus of market speculation in the next two months.

2, the Chinese government will usher in the eighteen largest in the second half of the year, and the government's regulatory policy is worth looking forward to.

Although China's economic semi annual report has not yet been released, but the two quarter economic data is weak, economic growth slowed down, with the central bank's unexpected interest rate cut, the market began to pay more attention to market regulation.

All previous economic regulation is not completed at once, but successive adjustments.

In the second half of the year, the eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be convened.