What Impact Will The Central Bank Increase By Two Degrees In The Year?

The people's Bank of China announced on the evening of 5 evening that the benchmark interest rate for Renminbi deposits and loans of financial institutions should be raised since April 6, 2011.

The benchmark interest rates for one-year loans and loans of financial institutions increased by 0.25 percentage points respectively.

After adjustment, the one-year deposit rate reached 3.25%, and the one-year lending rate reached 6.31%.

This is the fourth time the central bank has announced interest rate hikes since last year.

Analysts believe that the central bank's decision to raise interest rates at such a time point is intended to deal with the current price pressures that may hit new heights again.

"The central bank announced that the rate hike is in line with market expectations.

Since last year, China has increased interest rates for four consecutive times. Analysts believe that the continued interest rate increase will help alleviate the negative interest rate of our residents, and on the other hand, it will also raise the cost of corporate financing and the repayment pressure of the borrowers to a certain extent.

Taking the interest rate of the bank one year deposit and the current price index 4.9% as the figure before the interest rate increase, the real interest rate of the depositors is at about 2%, which is a more direct calculation. This means that the time deposits of the ten thousand yuan of the depositors will be lost for a year, which will be 200 yuan in 3% yuan.

After raising interest rates, it will undoubtedly alleviate the negative interest rate, and to a certain extent alleviate the pressure of residents' wealth.

"But we must see that increasing interest rates will increase the repayment pressure of enterprises, and if the price of producer goods rises, if the cost of financing is also uplifted, it will not be conducive to the operation and development of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises."

Zhang Qizuo, vice president of the Chengdu University, said.

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Experts believe that as the US dollar remains weak, the international commodity prices of crude oil and agricultural products (000061) will remain high and volatile. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the operating rate after the Spring Festival and the gradual strengthening of investment and consumption, PPI will remain at a high level in the first half of this year, which will bring great pressure to the operation of enterprises.

Some analysts believe that the continued increase in interest rates will increase the inflow pressure of overseas hot money.

In response to this concern, Liu Yuhui believes that the purpose of hot money inflows to China is mainly based on the consideration of asset price rise, which does not mean that there is no direct logical relationship between interest rate income in China and the United States, interest rate increase and inflow of hot money.

In addition, the continued interest rate increase will lead to the increase in mortgage interest rates, which will increase the pressure of homebuyers to repay loans to a certain extent.

Take the 20 year period of 1 million yuan, equivalent to the principal and interest repayment of commercial loans, for example, after the interest rate increase, the monthly repayment amount will increase by 119 yuan.