Suzhou Futures: Tightening Concerns Continue, PTA Short Term Highly Limited

　　 This week Zhengzhou TA1105 The closing price rose 54 points to 9560 yuan / ton, and the position decreased by 3792 to 171 thousand. Spot market The atmosphere is weak, and the price index of PTA is temporarily stable at 9250 yuan / ton.

　　 PTA On the upstream side, today's NYMEX-1 crude oil electronic disk runs above 88 US dollars / barrel. It is expected that short-term oil prices will remain strong, with limited space below. The price of MX and PX will be stable this week. The spot price of CFR LC30-45 / PX in Taiwan on Thursday will rise by 54 US dollars to 1318 US dollars / ton compared with last week, and the cost of PTA production will be around 8050 yuan / ton. At present, the PTA production profit is higher, and the downstream terminal demand has entered the off-season. PTA spot price or futures price will feel the suppressing brought by the production power.

Downstream, this week's Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester market trend is weak, downstream customers tend to buy low-priced products, polyester staple index fell 350 to 12850 yuan / ton. Investors need to remain sober about the future. In the face of the appreciation of the renminbi, the rising cost of labor and the competition among countries such as Southeast Asia, the export pressure of the domestic textile and garment industry has not declined. Moreover, in December -1, PTA seasonal demand weakened. At present, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped from 78% in early October to about 65% now.

Overall, the US economy continues to recover at a low speed, and the US quantitative easing is continuing. But in the face of domestic austerity expectations, the market's fear of high mood continues, and the low cotton futures also make the market panic. In the short term, PTA will continue to bear pressure.

　　 On the operation, we will focus on the main national economic data released on Saturday, focusing on the dynamics of central bank, cotton prices and production device dynamics. For TA1105, there will be more than one single exit in the early stage, and the stop will be set at 9600 points. The new capital will be traded around 9200-9600 days. The price difference between 2TA and 3FU has dropped from 6101 in November 16th to 4473 in December 10th. In the early stage, the "4 hand TA, 3 hand fuel oil" investment portfolio can still be held; attention should be paid to risk prevention and fund management.