Market Dynamics: Brazil Has Obvious Advantages In Continuous High-Yield Cotton Export

In 2024, Brazil will become the world's largest cotton exporter, surpassing the United States, which has been leading since 1993/94. According to the data of the Center for Advanced Research in Applied Economics (CEPEA) in Brazil, cotton production in Brazil has increased for the third consecutive year, while that in the United States has declined.

In recent years, Brazil's cotton planting area has expanded year by year, mainly due to good crop planting profits, continuous improvement of technology and good cotton quality. In 2023/24, the cotton planting area in Brazil increased by 16.9% year on year, reaching 1.944 million hectares, the highest level since 1991/92, and the unit yield slightly decreased by 0.18%. Nevertheless, this year's output is expected to reach a record 3.7 million tons, up 16.64% year on year.

The substantial increase in Brazil's cotton supply and the substantial depreciation of the domestic currency have led to a decline in Brazil's cotton prices. Compared with five years ago, the Brazilian real has fallen by 40% against the dollar, making Brazil the cheapest export. CEPEA said in its latest market report that although domestic demand has only seen modest growth, the increasing supply surplus has been absorbed by the increase in international market demand. In December 2024, Brazil's cotton export volume will reach 352800 tons, up 0.58% year on year.

In 2024, Brazil's cotton spot index will fluctuate in a narrow range. The lowest price is R $3.8063 (62 cents) per pound, and the highest price is R $4.3645 (71 cents) per pound. The average price for most of the year is lower than that in 2023.