Prospect Of Recent Cotton Market At Home And Abroad

（1） International market

Financial market volatility intensified, and it still takes time for cotton prices to stabilize. On December 27, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen wrote a letter to members of Congress, saying that the United States is expected to hit the debt ceiling as early as January 14, and may need to take "unconventional measures" to prevent the federal government from falling into debt default, and warned that Trump's plan to widely impose high tariffs on imported goods would increase the cost of American families and businesses and undermine the progress of curbing inflation, It is unfavorable to economic growth.

Influenced by this news, the US stock market corrected sharply on that day. The NASDAQ index fell by more than 2% during the day, and the Standard&Poor's Volatility Index rose by more than 8%, indicating that the volatility of the global financial market may rise again in the short term. In terms of the cotton market, the export sales of American cotton recovered slightly, but still lagged behind the same period last year. In the week ended December 19, the contracted export volume of American cotton was 63900 tons, an increase of 19600 tons compared with the previous week, achieving two consecutive weeks of growth. The annual cumulative net contracted volume was 824900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 571500 tons, and the contracted progress was 24.96%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.06 percentage points.

The seeding progress of Brazilian cotton was slightly slower than that of the previous year. According to the data released by the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company, as of December 22, the seeding rate of Brazilian cotton was 19.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.88 percentage points. Rainfall in New South Wales and Queensland in Australia in late November is good for cotton planting in dryland, and the planting area will be expanded. On the whole, the external market impact and cotton fundamentals are relatively empty, and it is expected that the international cotton price will continue to suffer from weak shocks.

（2） Domestic market

The fluctuation before the festival was reduced, and the cotton price entered the wait-and-see period. On the macro level, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 27 showed that the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell 7.3% year on year in November, and the year-on-year decline was 2.7 percentage points lower than that in October on the basis of the high base in 2023. With the effective implementation of the stock policy, the introduction of a package of incremental policies accelerated, the effect of the policy mix continued to play, and the decline in corporate profits was expected to slow down.

In December, the central bank's medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to expand at parity, reflecting the abundant market liquidity and the loose capital situation. In terms of policy, the Tariff Commission of the State Council issued the 2025 Tariff Adjustment Plan to orderly expand independent and unilateral opening up. The document shows that the sliding rate of cotton import in 2025 will remain the same as this year, and the cotton import policy will maintain good continuity.

In terms of supply and demand, with the cotton processing coming to an end this year, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. In addition, the planned planting area of Xinjiang cotton will increase year on year in 2025, which will put some pressure on the domestic cotton price. With the approaching of Trump's inauguration as President of the United States, the textile industry is increasingly worried about the export situation next year. The business strategy is biased towards prudence, and yarn inventory is generally digested by controlling the start-up rate, waiting for downstream replenishment. In general, domestic spot and futures prices have entered a weak repair state since the low point in August was reached in mid to late December, and the volatility has decreased. Considering the negative factors such as the risk of US debt default and the trend of the new US government's trade policy, market participants are mainly wait-and-see, and the cotton price bottoming process will continue.