Cotton Planting Area In China Dropped To A Low Level In Recent Five Years

In 2023, due to the decrease of cotton planting income in the previous year, the cotton fields in Xinjiang, the main cotton producing areas, will be replaced by crops such as grain and soybeans, which will lead to the decrease of cotton planting area to the lowest level in nearly five years. At the same time, affected by the adverse weather this year, the per unit yield of cotton has also declined, and the cotton farmers' income from planting has declined, which may affect their enthusiasm for planting next year. It is estimated that the cotton planting area will still decrease in 2024.

　　 In 2023, the cotton planting area in China will fall to the lowest level in nearly five years

In the past five years, China's cotton planting area as a whole showed a trend of shock and decline. On the one hand, the cotton planting area is significantly affected by the planting income. The poor cotton planting income of the mainland provinces and the labor cost of cotton planting affect farmers to switch to other crops, which led to a significant decline in the cotton planting area of the mainland provinces. On the other hand, policy guidance also has a certain impact. Since 2014, with the support of the target price subsidy policy, Xinjiang's cotton planting area has been generally stable. However, in the past two years, due to the adjustment of grain and cotton planting structure, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has declined slightly due to the withdrawal of secondary cotton suitable areas from cotton planting. However, in 2021, the price of seed cotton will rise to a 10-year high, and the income from cotton planting in the mainland and Xinjiang will increase significantly, boosting farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting. In 2022, the decline of cotton planting area in the mainland will be significantly narrowed, while the cotton planting area in Xinjiang will increase. Therefore, in 2022, the cotton planting area in China will reverse the trend of continuous decline in the previous period and show a small increase.

In 2023, due to the decrease of cotton planting income in the previous year and the implementation of a certain proportion of grain planting tasks in Xinjiang, the cotton planting area in China will return to a downward trend, and will drop to the lowest level in nearly five years. According to the monitoring, the national cotton planting area will be 38.026 million mu in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 12.35% and 16.09% compared with 2019.

　　 The unit yield of cotton is lower than expected, and the planting income will be poor in 2023

In 2023, during the seedling stage and boll and flower stage of cotton, the long-term low temperature, hail, strong wind, and extreme high temperature weather will lead to a decline in cotton yield and a decrease in cotton farmers' income. According to the survey, according to the actual picking situation in October, the proportion of seed cotton in Xinjiang reaching 400 kg/mu is less than 20%, while the proportion of seed cotton above 500 kg last year is more than 15%. This year, the yield of seed cotton per mu of 300-340kg will account for about 18%, and the yield below 300kg will account for more than 8%. According to the preliminary assessment, the average yield of seed cotton per mu in Xinjiang will be 385kg in 2023, down 38.5kg year on year. If the recent price of Xinjiang seed cotton is 7.4 yuan/kg, the gross income per mu of land will decrease by 285 yuan. Compared with the planting cost this year, the current income barely covers the planting cost, but for cotton growers less than 385kg, they are already in a loss state.

　　 Cotton suitable areas continue to withdraw, or further promote the decline of cotton area

In addition to the decline of cotton production, which led to the decline of cotton farmers' income, the price of seed cotton has declined since the beginning of October, which also made the income space of growers continuously compressed. In addition, according to the Implementation Plan of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's 2023-2025 Cotton Target Price Policy, it is clear that cotton planted in fruit cotton intercropping mode will not be included in the subsidy scope after 2024, and actively and orderly promote the withdrawal of sub suitable cotton regions, promote cotton planting to the production protection zone, and stabilize the cotton output in Xinjiang at about 5.1 million tons. In a word, the decrease of cotton planting income combined with policy guidance will reduce cotton farmers' expectations of planting.

Generally speaking, the planting scale of cotton crops in the next year is closely related to the planting income of the previous year. The planting income in 2023 will be poor, which is expected to affect the enthusiasm of cotton farmers in 2024 to some extent. Although cotton planting is subsidized, most of the planting subsidies are distributed in May June of the next year. Before spring sowing, most cotton growers comprehensively assess the planting scale based on the income before subsidies. In addition, in the first half of 2023, some Xinjiang cotton growing farms have decided to withdraw from cotton planting in 2024. Therefore, it is expected that the cotton planting area will decline in 2024, and the planting scale may decline by about 5.7% year on year.