National Bureau Of Statistics: The Purchasing Managers' Index Continued To Expand In March

On March 31, 2023, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 51.9%, 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 58.2% and 57.0% respectively, 1.9 and 0.6 percentage points higher than that of last month. The three indexes have been in the expansion range for three consecutive months, and China's economic development is still stabilizing and recovering.

1、 Manufacturing purchasing managers' index continues to be in boom range

In March, affected by the high base of the previous month and other factors, the PMI of the manufacturing industry fell back, and the prosperity level was still the second highest in nearly two years. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMI of 13 industries was higher than that of the previous month.

（1） Both ends of production and demand continue to expand. With the accelerated recovery of the domestic economic cycle, manufacturing production and market demand recovered steadily. The production index and new order index were 54.6% and 53.6% respectively, 2.1 and 0.5 percentage points lower than that of last month, still at a relatively high level of prosperity in the near future. From the perspective of industry, the two indexes of non-metallic mineral products, general equipment, special equipment, automobile and other industries rose to 57.0% and above, and the industry production and demand accelerated.

（2） The willingness of enterprises to purchase has increased. Driven by the recovery of production and market demand, the purchasing activities of enterprises have been relatively active recently, with the purchasing volume index of 53.5%, the highest point since December 2020; The import index was 50.9%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months. The import of raw materials for production continued to increase. From the perspective of industry, the purchase volume index and import index of upstream industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing have all risen significantly over the previous month.

（3） PMI of enterprises of all sizes has kept expanding. The PMI of large enterprises was 53.6%, and the prosperity level was basically the same as that of last month. The production index and new order index were both in a relatively high prosperity range of more than 55.0%, with strong momentum for recovery and development. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 50.3% and 50.4% respectively, falling back to varying degrees from the previous month, but both were in the boom zone for two consecutive months.

（4） PMI in key industries has been running stably. The PMI of equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry, high energy consuming industry and consumer goods industry was 53.0%, 51.2%, 51.1% and 51.9% respectively, and they continued to expand. Among them, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry is 1.1 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry as a whole, which has a significant driving effect; The PMI of the consumer goods industry has rebounded for three consecutive months, and the pace of expansion has generally accelerated.

（5） The market expectation is stable and good. Recently, China's economy has maintained a momentum of recovery, and the confidence of enterprises is stable. The expected index of production and operation activities is 55.5%, which continues to be in a high boom zone. From the perspective of industry, the expected index of production and operation activities of all industries surveyed are in the boom zone for two consecutive months, among which the industries of refined tea, special equipment, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, etc. are in the high boom zone of more than 60.0%, and relevant enterprises are optimistic about the market development prospects.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index continued to rise rapidly

In March, the non manufacturing business activity index was 58.2%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the previous month, the highest point in recent years, and the pace of recovery and development of the non manufacturing industry accelerated.

（1） The recovery of the service industry was accelerated. With the remarkable effectiveness of policies and measures to promote consumption in various regions, the recovery and development momentum of the service industry has been strengthened. The business activity index was 56.9%, 1.3 and 10.2 percentage points higher than that of last month and the same period last year. From the perspective of industry, the business activity index of retail, railway transport, road transport, air transport, leasing and business services is higher than 60.0%, which indicates that the willingness of residents to consume and travel has increased recently, and the market activity of related industries has recovered rapidly; The business activity index of telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services and other industries rose to a high boom range, and the industry was operating steadily and well. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the index of new orders was 58.5%, 3.8 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the release of market demand in the service industry continued to accelerate; The expected index of business activities was 63.2%, higher than 63.0% for three consecutive months. The market expectations of enterprises continued to improve.

（2） The construction industry accelerated its expansion. With the warming climate, the construction progress in various regions has accelerated, and the expansion of production activities in the construction industry has accelerated. The business activity index is 65.6%, 5.4 percentage points higher than last month. From the perspective of enterprise employment, the employment demand of construction enterprises continued to increase, and the employee index was 51.3%, maintaining an expansion range for three consecutive months. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities is 63.7%, which has been in a high boom zone for four consecutive months. Construction enterprises are optimistic about the prospects of recent market development.

3、 Comprehensive PMI output index keeps rising

In March, the comprehensive PMI output index was 57.0%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and continued to rise in the high boom zone, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to improve. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index are 54.6% and 58.2% respectively.

In March, with the rapid and steady transition of epidemic prevention and control, China's economy continued to recover, and manufacturing PMI, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index all remained in the expansion range. However, it should also be noted that in the process of enterprise development, enterprises still face prominent problems such as insufficient market demand, tight capital and high operating costs. The foundation for China's economic recovery needs to be further consolidated.