National Bureau Of Statistics: Purchasing Manager Index Fell In October

On October 31, 2022, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In October, affected by the frequent outbreaks of domestic epidemics, China's purchasing manager index fell down. The manufacturing purchasing manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.2%, 48.7% and 49.0% respectively. The foundation for China's economic recovery and development needs to be further consolidated.

1、 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell

In October, the PMI of the manufacturing industry dropped to 49.2%. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 11 were in the expansion range, and the overall prosperity of the manufacturing industry was stable.

（1） Both sides of production and demand have slowed down. In October, the production index and new order index were 49.6% and 48.1% respectively, 1.9% and 1.7% lower than that of the previous month, and the manufacturing industry production and market demand boom both fell. From the industry situation, the production index and new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing, petroleum coal and other fuel processing, medicine, automobile manufacturing and other industries were in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the production and demand kept increasing; The two indexes of textile, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products decreased by more than 5.0 percentage points.

（2） The price index continued to rise. The purchasing price index of main raw materials and the ex factory price index were 53.3% and 48.7%, respectively, which were 2.0% and 1.6% higher than that of the previous month. The purchasing price index of main raw materials was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the overall purchasing price level of raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to rise compared with the previous month. From the industry situation, the purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in agricultural and sideline food processing, petroleum coal and other fuel processing industries were higher than 60.0% and 53.0% respectively, and the purchase price of raw materials and the sales price of products rose simultaneously; The two price indexes of textile, wood processing and furniture manufacturing industries were lower than the critical point, and the market prices fell.

（3） Large enterprises keep expanding. PMI of large enterprises was 50.1%, 1.0 percentage points lower than that of last month, and continued to expand. Among them, the production index was 51.3%, higher than the critical point for six consecutive months, and the production of large enterprises continued to grow. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises were 48.9% and 48.2% respectively, down 0.8% and 0.1% compared with the previous month, and continued to be below the critical point. The production and operation pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises increased.

（4） Most industries are expected to be stable. The expected index of production and operation activities is 52.6%, which is in the boom zone. The recovery and development of the manufacturing industry is expected to be stable as a whole. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 13 production and operation activity expectation indexes are higher than the critical point. Among them, agricultural and sideline food processing, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment and other industries' production and operation activity expectation index continues to be above 58.0%, and enterprises have relatively strong confidence in recent market development.

The survey results also show that 56.7% of the enterprises in the high energy consumption industry reflected insufficient market demand this month, which was 3.9% higher than the overall situation; PMI of high energy consumption industry was 48.8%, lower than 1.8% of the previous month, falling to the contraction range, which is one of the main reasons for the decline of manufacturing industry.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index falls

In October, the non manufacturing business activity index was 48.7%, 1.9 percentage points lower than the previous month, which was lower than the critical point, and the recovery trend of non manufacturing industry slowed down.

（1） The market activity of service industry has been weakened. In October, the domestic epidemic situation was widespread and frequent. The business activity index of the service industry dropped to 47.0%, which was 1.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and the prosperity level of the service industry declined. From the perspective of the industry, retail, road transport, air transport, accommodation, catering, leasing and business services are in contact with each other, and the business activity index of service industry has dropped to a low level, and the total business volume has declined; The business activity index of telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services and other industries continued to be higher than 55.0%, and the total business volume maintained a rapid growth. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities was 56.7%, 0.6% higher than that of the previous month. The postal, Internet software and information technology service industries were driven by factors such as the approaching of the "double 11" promotion activities, and the expected business activity indexes were all in the high range of above 60.0%, and the enterprises expected to be better.

（2） The construction industry is at a high level of prosperity. The business activity index of the construction industry was 58.2%, lower than 2.0 percentage points of the previous month, and it was still in a high boom range. Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering construction industry is 60.8%, which is in the high prosperity range for two consecutive months, indicating that the construction progress of the project is steadily advancing and the expansion of industrial production activities is accelerating. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 64.2%, which is the high point in the near future, and the optimism of construction enterprises for the development of the industry has been improved.

3、 Composite PMI output index below critical point

In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.0%, 1.9 percentage points lower than the previous month, falling below the critical point, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have slowed down in general. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, are 49.6% and 48.7% respectively.