Global Perspective: Market Forecast Global Cotton In Oversupply

 

USDA forecast data in July showed that the global cotton 22 / 23 will continue to oversupply, and the supply and demand are expected to be more abundant than last year.

Most farmers in Xinjiang are confident that the yield will exceed 2021 and is expected to increase by 30-50 kg / mu. The cost of cotton planting ranges from 2800 to 3500 yuan. Under the risk of cotton price going down, farmers' expectation value may change from increasing income to break even or a little profit.

On August 4, the turnover rate of cotton reserve cotton was 32%, and the average transaction price was 15703 yuan / ton, with a large decline in transaction rate.

At present, the downstream textile enterprises are more optimistic about the orders in the peak season. The purchase has recovered, the startup has increased slightly, and the inventory digestion pressure is not reduced. In the future, we still need to pay attention to whether the orders in September and October in the peak season will recover from the middle and late August.

US cotton trading light, slightly higher. The 12 contract rose 0.19 cents / pound, or 0.2%. Basically, export data is expected to be sluggish, curbing the rise in cotton prices. However, the excellent rate of American cotton is low, and the supply is expected to decrease. Limit the space below. Night trading Zheng cotton small shocks, short-term fundamental lack of new guidance. The volatility is significantly reduced, and the price may be limited to 13500-14500 yuan / ton. Short term trading is recommended in operation.

Domestic and foreign cotton prices fluctuated downward. The US cotton export sales report released last night showed that, as of July 28, US cotton export sales decreased by 112400 bales, a record low.

Fundamentally speaking, the global market is still suffering from economic downward pressure and commodity prices are under pressure. The textile industry is in a high position, and the textile enterprises are willing to start production and demand.

In terms of the U.S. market, the drought in Texas continues, and the abandonment rate may maintain a high level, which provides the bottom support for ice cotton prices. However, the US cotton export data continuously refreshes the low level, which limits the space for cotton price rebound. From the perspective of China's market, a high yield of cotton in the new year is imminent. With the fall of cotton price, ginning plants will increase their willingness to stand up for price. However, cotton ginning plants have accumulated cotton stocks and concentrated risks. Moreover, the downstream mills continue to lose money, and the purchasing enthusiasm is low, so the cotton price is hard to maintain. Overall, cotton prices lack of action, focus on USDA supply and demand report, short-term or maintain the bottom of the shock trend.