In May this year, China's exports showed negative growth for the first time, and the trend of growth rate decline will continue. From the beginning of the year to April, the monthly export of textile and clothing increased, but the growth rate fell month by month since March, and it showed a negative growth of 16.8% in May for the first time. After eliminating the epidemic prevention materials, the export of that month increased by 72.8%, which was smaller than that in the earlier period. Due to the export peak in the second and third quarters of last year, it is preliminarily predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of monthly exports will slow down or even decline until the end of the third quarter. In May this year, China's exports showed negative growth for the first time, and the trend of growth rate decline will continue. From the beginning of the year to April, the monthly export of textile and clothing increased, but the growth rate fell month by month since March, and it showed a negative growth of 16.8% in May for the first time. After eliminating the epidemic prevention materials, the export of that month increased by 72.8%, which was smaller than that in the earlier period. Due to the export peak in the second and third quarters of last year, it is preliminarily predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of monthly exports will slow down or even decline until the end of the third quarter.
The global vaccination rate increased by 12% month on month, and foreign demand is expected to further warm up in the second half of the year. As of June 24, according to Oxford University statistics, more than 2.8 billion doses of new coronavirus vaccine have been reported worldwide, with the coverage rate of 22.59%, 12 percentage points higher than that on May 24. Among them, the vaccination rate in developed economies has generally reached more than 40%. Some experts predict that according to the current vaccination rate, the European Union will achieve mass immunization in the second half of the year, and the demand for textiles and clothing in major economies will return to normal.
The short-term fluctuation direction of RMB exchange rate is repeated, and the long-term appreciation trend is still irreversible. In mid June, the Federal Reserve released the signal of interest rate increase, and the dollar index rose rapidly. At the same time, driven by the Central Bank of China's monetary policy adjustment and the decline of current account surplus's support for RMB, the unilateral appreciation of RMB against the US dollar has come to an end. On June 24, the central exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.4824 yuan, devaluing 203 points, which was the eighth consecutive day of devaluation, with an accumulated depreciation of 968 points. Compared with the high in early June, the accumulated depreciation was 1252 points. In the medium and short term, the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will become normal. In the long run, the improvement of China's economic growth rate and labor productivity has laid a good foundation for the improvement of RMB's purchasing power parity, which determines the long-term trend of RMB appreciation. When conducting foreign trade activities, enterprises must pay attention to the long-term and short-term trend of RMB, timely adjust their business strategies, and formulate long-term plans for the trend of exchange rate.
From January to may, China's textile and clothing trade volume reached 126.53 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year. Among them, export was US $115.11 billion, an increase of 17.7%, 15.7% compared with the same period in 2019; Imports were $11.42 billion, up 24.6%, 13.2% over the same period in 2019. The cumulative trade surplus was $103.69 billion, up 17% and 15.9% over the same period in 2019.
In May, China's textile and clothing trade volume reached US $27.01 billion, down 13.5% year-on-year, 4% higher than the same period in 2019, and 3.2% month on month growth. Among them, exports were 24.84 billion US dollars, down 16.8%, 4.3% and 4.5% respectively compared with the same period in 2019; Imports were $2.17 billion, up 59.1%, 1% over the same period in 2019, and down 9.4% month on month. The trade surplus of the month was US $22.67 billion, down 20.4%, 4.6% higher than that of the same period in 2019 and 6% month on month. Textile became the main reason for the decline of export in the current month
As the external market demand slightly improved, the export of epidemic prevention materials continued to fall, and the year-on-year base was relatively large. In May, the export volume of textile and clothing continued to rise, and the month on month export maintained growth. However, the export showed negative growth for the first time in the same year over the same period in 2019, which was 4.3% higher than that in the same period in 2019. The decline in the month was mainly driven by textiles, with a decline rate of 40.8% and an increase of 5.3% compared with that in 2019. Clothing increased by 37.6%, 3.5% compared with 2019. The growth of Japan's export to the EU has been sluggish
The US and ASEAN markets have maintained relatively stable and sustainable growth, while the export growth to the EU and Japan has been sluggish. In the second month of the second quarter, the growth momentum of textile and clothing exports to major markets was weakened. It can be seen from the figure below that in April, China's exports to all four key markets and bulk commodities showed a trend of slowing down or declining, which is expected to remain until the end of the third quarter. U.S.A As the largest export market of textile and clothing, its market "stabilizer" role is still prominent. From January to may, China's exports to the United States reached US $20.12 billion, up 23.3% year on year and 23.4% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodities of knitwear increased by 62%, decreased by 1.8% compared with that in 2019, and basically recovered to the level before the epidemic. european union Market demand rebounded, but the momentum was insufficient. From January to may, China's textile and garment exports to the EU reached US $16.57 billion, down 15% year on year and 18.5% higher than that in the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodities of knitwear increased by 30.9%, an increase of 6.7% compared with that in 2019. Among them, the export growth momentum was insufficient in May, with a drop of 16.4%.
Japan Market volatility is obvious, and growth space is limited. From January to may, China's textile and clothing exports to Japan decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, and increased by 9.2% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodities of knitted and woven clothing increased by 8.4% year-on-year, 2.7% lower than that in 2019. ASEAN The market is relatively stable, and exports maintain double growth. From January to may, China's textile and clothing exports to ASEAN increased by 42.2% year-on-year, and 23.4% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, yarn fabrics of key commodities increased by 41.4% year-on-year, 5.9% higher than that in 2019. The share of Chinese products in the three key markets is still at a high level. The share of Chinese products in the European and American markets is still higher than that in the same period in 2020 and 2019. The Japanese market is slightly down. From January to March, the 27 EU countries imported US $33.01 billion from the world, an increase of 10.7%, and an increase of 34.2% from China. China accounted for 35.1%, 6% and 5.2% higher than the same period in 2020 and 2019, respectively. From January to April, US imports from the world increased by 25.1% to US $42.79 billion, while imports from China increased by 43.4%. China accounted for 30.9%, higher than that in the same period in 2020 and 2019. Among them, textiles accounted for 36.8%, lower than the same period in 2019 and 2020, and clothing accounted for 28.8%, both higher than that in the same period of 2019 and 2020. From January to April, Japan's import from China decreased by 4%, with China accounting for 55.1%, lower than the same period in 2020 and 2019. Textile accounted for 57.8%, lower than the same period in 2020, higher than the same period in 2019; Clothing accounted for 55.2%, higher than the same period in 2020, lower than the same period in 2019. The decline in the export of epidemic prevention materials was further expanded
The decline rate of epidemic prevention materials export was further expanded, and the export of clothing commodities maintained a good growth trend. In May, the export of textile anti epidemic materials continued to decline, and the decline rate was further expanded. The decline rates of medical masks and medical protective clothing reached 93.4% and 86.4%, respectively, driving down the cumulative export of 75.1% and 44.7% from January to may, respectively. Affected by the decline of mask export, the export of textiles decreased by 40.8% in May. After removing masks, the actual increase was 71.5% and 1.6% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, yarn fabric increased by 82.3% in total, and decreased by 5.6% compared with the same period in 2019. From January to may, the cumulative export of textiles decreased by 2.9%. After removing masks, the actual growth rate was 48.3%, which was 9.4% higher than that in the same period of 2019, of which the yarn fabric increased by 45% and 2% compared with the same period in 2019. Although clothing is also affected by protective clothing, export growth momentum is strong driven by the recovery of external demand. In May, the export increased by 37.6%, and the actual growth after removing protective clothing was 74.2%, which was 2.7% higher than that of the same period in 2019. Among them, the total growth rate of knitwear clothing is 38.2%, which is 4% higher than that of the same period in 2019. From January to may, the cumulative export of clothing increased by 48.2%, after removing protective clothing, the actual growth was 56.9%, and 12.1% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the total growth of needle woven clothing was 41.4%, and that of the same period of 2019 was 7.2%. Note *: the statistics of masks and protective clothing are based on the HS8 code of China Customs, and the statistical caliber is slightly larger. Export growth of major provinces and cities slowed down year on year
From January to may, the export of key export provinces and cities (districts) in China continued to grow, among which the top five export provinces of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian all achieved rapid growth year-on-year and compared with the same period in 2019. However, from the perspective of single month, the growth trend of export has significantly decreased. Among the top five provinces and cities, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Henan and other places in the central and western regions showed negative growth year-on-year and compared with that in 2019, and the growth rate of most other regions also decreased significantly. There is a big gap between the import of textiles and that of the previous year
The growth trend of clothing import is not decreasing, and the gap between textile import and the same period in 2019 is further widened. Clothing import shows a good development trend, achieving sustained and stable growth. In May, clothing imports increased by 80.7% and 34.2% year-on-year and compared with the same period in 2019, of which needle woven clothing increased by 85.9% and 27.8% respectively. From January to may, clothing imports increased by 58.9% year-on-year and 46.2% compared with that in 2019. The monthly import of textiles rose slightly on the same period, with an increase of 48.1% in the same month, an increase of 18 percentage points compared with the previous month, but a decrease of 12.3% compared with that in 2019, and the decline continued to expand compared with the previous month. Among them, bulk commodity yarn fabrics decreased by 15.3%. From January to may, textile imports increased by 7.4% year-on-year, and decreased by 3.1% compared with the same period in 2019. Textile increased by 7.4% year-on-year, down from the cumulative increase of last month, and decreased by 3.1% compared with that in 2019. Cotton imports fall and prices rise
In May, cotton imports continued to fall, with 173 000 tons of cotton imports, up 147% year-on-year. The price of imported cotton rose month by month. In May, the average import price rose to 1980 US dollars / ton, a new high since last year. From January to may, cotton imports grew rapidly as a whole, with a cumulative import of 1.374 million tons from the world, an increase of 70% year-on-year. All imports from the United States, Brazil, India and the country increased, while imports from Australia fell by 70%.
