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Supply And Demand Deadlock, Polyester Bottle Piece Continued To Move On The Lack Of Action

2021/6/4 11:07:00 0

The recent strong performance of crude oil has boosted the sentiment of the commodity market. The rising price of dual raw materials promotes the stable and warm operation of polyester bottle chip market. After the impact of the mentality, triggered a replenishment cycle in the industry, the market trading relatively improved. Let's take a look at the performance of supply and demand

Supply side:

Change table of domestic polyester bottle flake device

region	factory	Production capacity (10000 tons)	Unit load	Production capacity involved in production reduction (10000 tons)
East China	Sanfangxiang	two hundred	Normal operation	zero
	Changzhou China Resources	one hundred	Normal operation	zero
	Jiangyin Chenggao	one hundred and twenty	parking	one hundred and twenty
	Valka	one hundred and twenty	Nearly 50% of the projects have been started	sixty-five
	Yizheng	forty-five	80% of construction starts	nine
	Shanghai Yuanfang	fifty-five	Nearly 90% of construction starts	five point five
	Xiamen Tenglong	twenty-five	Normal operation	zero
	Jiangsu Baosheng	fifteen	70% of construction started	four point five
south China	Hainan Yisheng	two hundred	Normal operation	zero
	Guangzhou Pan Asia	twenty-five	50% of construction started	twelve point five
	Zhuhai China Resources	one hundred and ten	Normal operation	zero
	Guangdong Taibao	forty	90% of construction started	four
North China	Anyang Chemical	thirty	Normal operation	zero
northwest	Lan Shan Tun River	six	80% of construction starts	one point two
southwest	Wuliangye	fifteen	80% of construction starts	three
southwest	Chongqing wankai	sixty	Normal operation	zero
northeast	Dalian Yisheng	seventy	Normal operation	zero
northeast	Liaoyang Petrochemical	ten	70% of construction started	three
total		one thousand two hundred and forty-six	81.42%	two hundred and twenty-seven point seven

Source: Longzhong information

With the successful commissioning of Zhuhai China Resources phase III 500000 ton plant, the total domestic production capacity of polyester bottle chips has increased to 12.46 million tons. The gradual increase of the cost side led to the aggravation of cash flow loss of polyester bottle chips. In May and June of each year is the peak season for polyester bottle chip factory, and the factory inventory is in the lower middle position, so the probability of price rising and production reduction is low. Local factory delivery tension, to foreign trade orders, domestic trade just need to deliver. The 400000 ton plant of Zhejiang wankai phase II was shut down in early November 2020 for boiler transformation, and it is planned to restart in mid June. But the current profit loss, restart time or delay. According to the start-up of polyester bottle chip factory, the industry load of polyester bottle chip was 82.46% in June, and the output in June is expected to increase slightly to around 935000 tons.

In terms of demand: from the perspective of soft drink enterprises, only one large factory needs to supplement the supply of goods from July to August; Another big factory may supplement the supply of goods in the fourth quarter. Most of the other factories have already locked in the supply in advance this year. In southern China, local power supply is limited, and the peak production of bottle blank and sheet processing enterprises is staggered, so the demand for bottle pieces is relatively reduced. On the whole, domestic trade demand is slightly weak. Foreign trade orders, due to the appreciation of the RMB, the participation of sea freight, tight container space and other adverse factors, the volume of orders received is narrower than that in April, and the export volume of bottle pieces is expected to continue to decline in May.

Future forecast:

Cost side: the market focus of crude oil is still in the US Iran negotiations. If Iran resumes crude oil production, it will drag down the international oil price substantially. Due to the unexpected failure of Ningbo Yisheng 2.2 million ton unit, the monthly supply of pta6 was reduced beyond the expectation, and the spot supply was tight, with some support in the short term. However, the production of some staple fiber and filament factories decreased, resulting in the decline of polyester demand, PTA aftermarket or pressure downward. Ethylene glycol, (Zhejiang Petrochemical, sanning, Inner Mongolia Jianyuan) If the output of the new unit can be released smoothly, there will be a certain expectation of callback under the accumulated reservoir pressure.

In a word, the cash flow loss of polyester bottle chips is increasing, and the probability of low-cost shipment is low. The overall performance of the demand side is weak, most traders have orders in June, and the willingness to make up positions is not high. However, the cost of support, short-term market is not suitable, it is recommended to operate the light warehouse carefully. It is expected that the polyester bottle chip market will be stable and weak in June, and the water bottle material negotiation in East China will be 6250-6450 yuan / ton.