Pay Attention To The Operation Roadmap Of Chemical Fiber Industry In 2021

The most difficult year 2020 has passed. Looking forward to 2021, the gradual economic recovery will provide guarantee for the continuous recovery and steady development of the chemical fiber industry.

From the demand side, the production of China's and global textile industry will continue to consolidate and restore the growth trend, China's textile and clothing export will continue to maintain the growth momentum, and the domestic consumer market will continue to rebound, which will provide growth momentum for the chemical fiber industry.

From the perspective of raw materials, with the gradual recovery of the world economy, it is expected that the price center of international oil price in 2021 will be significantly higher than that in 2020, and the chemical fiber market price has a certain support at the cost side. However, with the continuous rise of oil prices, the global crude oil production may increase, which will also limit the upward height of international oil prices. In addition, in 2021, China's polyester raw materials Px, PTA and MEG are still in the high expansion cycle, and the shortage of domestic PX and MEG will be alleviated, and PTA supply will remain loose, which will offset the cost support brought by the rising oil price to a certain extent, and the industrial chain profit will be transferred from the raw material side to the back.

In terms of new production capacity of the industry, 2021 is still the concentrated production period of chemical fiber industry, especially polyester and polyester production capacity. The contradiction of production capacity will be highlighted periodically. Whether the growth of demand can effectively absorb the growth of production capacity remains to be seen. Moreover, most of the new production capacity is concentrated in the leading chemical fiber enterprises, which will further consolidate the scale-up cost advantage of leading enterprises, and to a certain extent, aggravate the crowding out effect on other enterprises.

Overall, the chemical fiber industry will continue to be in the recovery cycle in 2021, but the process will not be smooth, and the market volatility may increase. It is expected that the chemical fiber output, economic benefits and other operational indicators will be significantly better than that in 2020. However, due to the low base in the first half of 2020 and the continuous recovery in the second half of 2020, the growth rate of various indicators of the industry in 2021 will show an obvious trend of high before and low after. In terms of export, as the risk of global epidemic is decreasing, the demand of textile and clothing market is picking up, and the international logistics is recovering rapidly. It is expected that the chemical fiber export volume will return to the growth trend.

In the long run, the epidemic will accelerate the structural adjustment of China's chemical fiber industry, further promote the structural reform of the supply side of the industry, and urge enterprises to think about how to layout and develop in the future. In the post epidemic era, "innovation, safety and environmental protection" will become the focus of the industry. We should strengthen independent innovation, integrate new materials, new technologies, and upgrade domestic consumption, Continuously improve product quality and technological added value, explore new demands, and improve the level of intelligent manufacturing. Through the implementation of intelligent manufacturing and integration of industrial chain data resources, realize the "interconnection of all things"; At the same time, industrial safety can not be ignored. Chemical fiber raw materials are highly dependent on oil resources, and regenerated cellulose fiber materials are highly dependent on imports, which have potential industrial safety risks; In the field of environmental protection, China has put forward the goal of "reaching the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060", which will further promote and accelerate the green transformation and upgrading of chemical fiber industry.