Oil Market Determines Textile Interests Is The Key

Today is March 12, Arbor Day. First of all, I wish you a happy holiday! Speaking of trees, Xiaobian thinks that our textile industry is also like a big tree. The top raw materials of petroleum, cotton and hemp are the roots of textile trees, which support the vigorous development of the whole industry; polyester industry chain and yarn are the stems of textile trees, conveying "nutrition" to the whole body of trees. With these materials, textile trees begin to sprout, blossom and bear fruit. Our leaves are factories that turn textile materials into fabrics, and other related dyeing and finishing processes let the fabrics blossom. Finally, they are combined to process into textile products. This is the fruit tree of this textile tree.

The recent market, sometimes like a helicopter, sometimes like a roller coaster, sometimes like a cliff jump, sometimes like a free fall movement, ups and downs, so no defense.
Since the beginning of 2021, the price of Brent crude oil has almost doubled. After the recovery of the epidemic situation and the reduction of production in OPEC + countries, the international oil price continued to rise, breaking through the $70 mark for a time.
However, the good times did not last long. On March 8, international oil prices dropped significantly, and then began to fluctuate. Although Goldman Sachs and other institutions predict that crude oil will reach $75 this year, the short-term "ceiling" effect appears. Crude oil, as the leading variety of futures chemical industry, is an important standard for leading the market! And in recent days, the market deadlock, polyester production and marketing appears very frustrated, but ultimately depends on the crude oil "face.".
　　 The crude oil sneezes, the textile raw material encounters the collective cold! In recent days, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol futures contracts have been on a roller coaster. In the second week of March, prices fell sharply.
　　 As we all know, polyester market presents a hot scene recently. Since February, mainstream manufacturers have raised their product prices one after another. Many factories have increased their product prices twice or three times a day, and even are reluctant to sell and wait for price increases. As of March 10, PTA price increased by 495 yuan / ton, ethylene glycol price increased by 950 yuan / ton, polyester FDY 150D price increased by 1150 yuan / ton, polyester POY 150D price increased by 1950 yuan / ton, polyester DTY 150D price increased by 1600 yuan / ton.
　　 In fact, the main reason is that the raw material side has benefited from the supply side reform, resulting in more concentrated production capacity. Moreover, due to the continuous shrinking demand, the low price competition of end commodities leads to the hot money being unprofitable. With the support of hot money and the promotion of the media, bulk commodities are speculation as investment products. Driven by excess liquidity and profiteering, a collusion between capital and material enterprises has been staged again and again against the mob.
　　 As we all know, one of the most important factors in the price increase of products is the relationship between supply and demand. At present, the global epidemic situation has reached an inflection point, and the global economy, which has been stagnant for a year, has shown hope for improvement. After reshuffle of the epidemic situation last year, a number of small and medium-sized enterprises with broken capital chain have been eliminated. The high-quality enterprises that survived this year have also started to work at full speed. However, China's economy is recovering A wave of price rise has poured cold water on them. All kinds of commodities are soaring wildly. Raw materials are priced at one price a day, which makes the enterprise unable to control the cost. Downstream enterprises dare not accept orders or start work. Some downstream enterprises start production, which means that they will lose money. They simply stop receiving orders and wait and see. Rising prices will inevitably lead to a decrease in demand. As a result, the supply of raw materials exceeds demand In the face of such a crazy rise in the price of raw materials, I would like to advise you to hoard raw materials and rationally analyze the future market demand. In the past two days, led by the fall of international crude oil prices, the prices of domestic and foreign bulk raw materials have fallen collectively. It can be said that crude oil sneezes and textile raw materials have a collective cold!  
　　 In the short term, there will be a downward adjustment for some rapidly rising raw materials. However, we think that with the improvement of the global epidemic situation, the industry's prosperity in the first half of the year is very certain, because the inventory is generally at a historical low level, and it is expected that the business climate in the second half of the year will remain at a higher position.
　　 In the long run, we believe that not only chemical fiber, but also many industries also show the characteristics of optimizing the industry pattern and strengthening the competitive advantages of leading enterprises. The next 5-10 years will be a window period for the formation of leading enterprises and brands in all walks of life. If you look at the polyester industry, you will know that all the subdivided industries will go in this direction in the next few years, so we should take advantage of this period to make good adjustments Strategic direction, positioning their own products and brands. When prices soar, it is also a big test for suppliers. I have seen many short-sighted peers lose their loyal fans in the price hike, offend a large number of old customers, and cause the business to plummet after the price rise. Therefore, this time is to test the strategic vision of businesses, whether for immediate interests or long-term interests Benefit!