"Variation" Of Property Market Policy: Pressure On "Big Cities" In Shanghai, Shenzhen And Hangzhou At The Beginning Of The New Year Has Gradually Become The Focus Of Regulation And Control

At the beginning of 2021, the three hot cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou have successively issued property market regulation policies, which put pressure on the purchase restriction, sales restriction and tax and fees, and filled the loopholes in "false divorce", credit loan, legal auction house and gift house. After this round of regulation and control upgrading, the suppression of investment speculation demand in these cities is unprecedented.

Meanwhile, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of housing and urban rural development, led a team to Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places in late January to investigate and supervise the real estate market. Ni Hong once again stressed the basic principles of "no speculation in real estate", not using real estate as a means of short-term economic stimulation, and earnestly implementing the main responsibility of the city, and pointed out that "timely measures should be taken when problems are found".

The upgrading of regulation and control in hot cities reflects the important direction of the current property market policy. The central economic work conference held at the end of last year stressed that "solving the outstanding housing problems in big cities" will be one of the key tasks in 2021. Now, these big cities are becoming fast and powerful.

The tightening of financial policy is another important change in property market regulation. According to the exclusive information before the 21st century economic report, since January 27, the housing loan interest rates of the four major industrial and agricultural construction banks in Guangzhou have all increased, while some banks have suspended their housing loan business.

Since January, real estate sales have remained at a high scale under the inertia, but the impact of policy changes has imperceptibly occurred.

Information map.

"Big city" faces high pressure of regulation and control

In addition to Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, there are also some hot cities that have tightened regulation recently. Hefei requested at the beginning of this year that the number of housing units under the name of the original family should still be used to purchase houses within two years of divorce. The intention of this move to "fake divorce" is very obvious.

At the end of last year, Hefei has implemented a "leak stoppage" program for various problems in the local property market, including strict investigation and compensation of social security and housing purchase, exploration of the "multi school division" policy and the "six-year degree system" policy.

On January 19, Wuxi Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued a document saying that it would implement classified management of basic decoration and upgrading decoration, and apply for price filing according to regulations. The policy is intended to avoid the price increase of commercial housing projects by means of tie-in and fine decoration.

Wang Fei, Secretary of the Party committee and director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, said on January 25 that the illegal entry of funds into the real estate market and intermediary speculation and speculation were strictly investigated. At the same time, we should strengthen strict supervision on long-term rental enterprises and prohibit enterprises from forming capital pools and rent loans.

In recent years, real estate regulation has maintained a high pace. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, from 2018 to 2020, the frequency of issuing national real estate regulation policies is 450 times, 620 times and 489 times respectively. The contents of the policies include keeping pressure, covering purchase restrictions, taxes and fees, capital supervision, talent introduction and other aspects. Among them, in the second half of 2020, the frequency of regulation and control in the eastern hot cities has increased significantly, and the main measures are to suppress.

According to Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, this is related to the change of hot spots in the market. He believes that since 2016, the third and fourth tier cities have benefited from the dividend of the shed reform and have been warming up rapidly for a time. However, as the boom of shed reform subsides and the introduction of talent introduction policy in hot first and second tier cities, the market hot spots gradually shift to the first and second tier cities. By the second half of 2020, with the return of monetary policy from moderate easing to neutral, the value of these cities will be further highlighted.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the area of commercial housing sales in the eastern region increased by 7.1% year-on-year last year, and the sales volume increased by 14.1%. In the fourth quarter of last year, the price growth of first tier cities has been ahead of that of 70 large and medium-sized cities.

The central economic work conference held at the end of last year stressed that "solving the outstanding housing problems in big cities" will be one of the key tasks in 2021. This is the first time that regulators have focused on "big cities".

The market changes of big cities have strong radiation and guidance to the surrounding areas. Therefore, the management and control of housing prices in "big cities" has always been the focus of regulatory attention. This is also considered to be an important reason why the Ministry of housing and urban rural development went to Shanghai and Shenzhen for investigation and supervision.

Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute believes that at this stage, house prices are still untouchable red line. Once the market shows signs of overheating, urban house prices will rise too fast in the short term, and the big stick of regulatory policies will follow.

As far as the specific policy content is concerned, this year's core first and second tier cities are more likely to upgrade the purchase restriction, involving the expansion of the purchase restriction area, bringing the second-hand housing into the scope of purchase restriction, strengthening the control of purchasing qualification, etc., and at the same time, it will also restrict the fraudulent purchase qualification through false divorce and false settlement. In contrast, the regulation of the third and fourth tier cities will be relatively weak, and they are more inclined to "stabilize" the market by strengthening the sales restriction.

"Deleveraging" enters landing stage

The financial level of control has also been launched. According to the exclusive information before the 21st century economic report, since January 27, the mortgage interest rates of the four major industrial and agricultural construction banks in Guangzhou have all increased. Since then, the first set of LPR + 40bp, the second set of LPR + 60BP, the first set of LPR + 55bp, the second set of LPR + 75bp, after the change, the interest rate of the first set of loans is 5.2%, the second set of 5.4%.

At the same time, Guangzhou has suspended the housing loan business.

Statistics from the shell Research Institute also showed that in January this year, the average interest rate of the first house loan in 36 cities was 5.23%, and the interest rate of the second set was 5.52%, which rose slightly at the bottom. The average lending cycle of housing loans extended by 5 days to 53 days.

This is considered part of the "Prudential Management System of real estate finance". Since the concept was first proposed in July last year, the tightening of real estate financial management is on the way. Since then, the "three red lines" for the financing of real estate enterprises and the "five file management" for bank housing loans have been issued successively, which means that the policy has entered the stage of refinement and implementation.

Yan Yuejin pointed out that the adjustment of mortgage interest rate will affect the bank's real estate loan amount, reflecting that the "five file management" policy has been launched. Among them, although this year is the transitional period of the policy, its actual impact is gradually emerging. From the point of view of other cities, we can not rule out the possibility that the future housing loan interest rate will continue to rise.

At the same time, the bank's restrictions on the financing of real estate enterprises may gradually increase, which is reflected in the extension of the approval process and the increase of compliance requirements.

Shanghai E-House Research Institute pointed out in a report that the overall financing environment of real estate enterprises is still tight this year, and it is the general trend for real estate enterprises to deleverage and reduce debt. The residential sector still needs to stabilize leverage to ensure that the leverage ratio and debt ratio of residents will not continue to rise. Hot cities will not rule out the possibility of upgrading the loan restriction. Cities with pressure to reduce loans may moderately relax the loan restriction, but it will not exceed the scope of the existing limited loan policy framework.

The change of property market policy will gradually affect all levels of the market.

A person in charge of a listed real estate enterprise in Beijing told the 21st century economic reporter that although the company is in the "green file", it still takes the "basic market" as the key point in formulating the strategy for 2021, and is "unprecedentedly cautious" in regional expansion and diversified business promotion.

The source said that although many real estate enterprises have carried out debt replacement by borrowing new and old ones, overall, the financial pressure of the whole industry will gradually increase. In the past two years, the real estate enterprises have exposed the problem of capital chain, which shows that under the strong financial control, the financial structure of many real estate enterprises is very fragile.

At the market level, most institutions believe that after the sales peak in 2020, the scale of real estate sales this year will decline. Among them, the Yangtze River Delta, the bay area and other regions, although under great pressure of regulation and control, will still be the hot spot of trade.