Fission Of Global New Energy Vehicles: China And Europe Are Getting Rid Of The United States

The key word of the year 2020 is undoubtedly the new epidemic.

For the global automobile industry, which has been suffering from forced shutdown, the global supply chain is on the verge of fracture, and the demand side continues to be depressed, the epidemic year is a big test for the whole industry. In addition to the financial health status of various automobile enterprises, the more important content of this examination is the electric transformation.

Information map.

Half sea water and half fire

With the formal production of Tesla's Shanghai Super factory and the listing of new automobile manufacturing forces such as Weilai, ideality and Xiaopeng in the United States, the cumulative sales growth rate of China's new energy vehicles in the first 11 months of 2020 has been ahead of the overall auto market. According to the production and sales data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first 11 months reached 1.109 million, up 3.9% year-on-year.

Compared with the adverse growth of China market, the world's second largest automobile market, the development trend of new energy vehicles in the United States is relatively pessimistic. According to the EIA statistics of the US energy information administration, in the first half of 2020, the total sales of new energy passenger vehicles including pure electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States was only 111000, a decrease of 25% compared with the same period of last year. Although Tesla achieved an explosive growth of 387% month on month and 254% year-on-year with the sales of 139300 vehicles in the third quarter, according to the estimates of GCBC and ev volume, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the United States in 2020 will not exceed the highest value of 350000 vehicles in 2018.

In 2020, the biggest bright spot of the new energy vehicle market is the European market where traditional car companies gather. According to the data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), in the first three quarters, the sales of new energy vehicles in the European market, including Britain, Norway and Switzerland, reached 880000, including 511000 pure electric vehicles and 151000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 195%, accounting for about 10% of the new vehicle registration in Europe. According to the 21st century economic report, the reporter learned from German vehicle management that the sales of new energy vehicles in Germany, France and other major EU countries remained strong in the fourth quarter, which also means that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe will probably surpass China this year and become the largest new energy vehicle market in the world.

The trend that China and Europe are breaking away from the United States and becoming the forefront of new energy vehicles in the world is also confirmed in the latest market report of strategy & of PricewaterhouseCoopers. The report predicts that by 2035, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe will account for 67%, and that in China will reach more than 55%. In the United States, traditional fuel vehicles will still occupy 86% of the U.S. auto market.

Europe vs. America: few big subsidies and policies

As an emerging field still highly dependent on policies and subsidies, the direct causes of the different performance of the three global automobile sectors in China, the United States and Europe in 2020 can also be traced back to the different policies issued by relevant institutions in the epidemic year.

On April 23, China, which took the lead in getting out of the shadow of the new crown epidemic, jointly issued the notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles under the leadership of the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the national development and Reform Commission. The notice extended the implementation period of subsidy policy for new energy vehicles to the end of 2022, reversing the decline of China's new energy vehicles by 56.4% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

Two months later, in order to save the automobile industry, which had successfully controlled the epidemic situation, on the one hand, in order to save the automobile industry from the sharp drop in sales, on the other hand, in order to accelerate the completion of the 95 g / km carbon dioxide emission target set by the European Commission, European countries began to follow the pace of China to launch intensive subsidy policies.

On May 26, France took the lead in announcing an allocation of 8 billion euros for the revitalization of the automobile industry, including direct subsidies of 7000 and 5000 euros for individuals and enterprises who purchase pure electric vehicles. If consumers are willing to replace old fuel vehicles with electric vehicles, they will receive an additional scrapping reward of up to 5000 euro.

After that, Germany, Europe's largest automobile manufacturer and seller, announced that it would follow up. As an important part of the 130 billion euro economic recovery plan, German electric vehicle buyers would directly enjoy 9000 Euro cash subsidies, while plug-in hybrid vehicle buyers would receive 3750 Euro subsidies. The policy is effective for five years.

After Germany and France have expressed their views, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Sweden and other European countries have launched similar cash subsidies ranging from 3000 euro to 6000 euro.

Contrary to the vigorous subsidies in the two major markets in China and Europe, it is the trump government's love for traditional fuel vehicles. At the federal level, there are only tax credits for automobile manufacturers, which are applicable to new energy vehicles at the federal level. The policy gives automakers a $7000 tax credit for the first 200000 electric vehicles they produce. However, the 200000 vehicle quota was used up by Tesla and GM in March this year, and the trump administration has not yet agreed to extend the policy. As for the $4500 per car swap subsidy, which was introduced briefly during the Obama administration in 2009, this policy tool has not been favored by the white house again.

Competition: the key for China and Europe to get rid of the United States

In addition to the policy support from the two major markets in China and Europe, the new forces of Chinese car making and the major European traditional car companies have successively launched a number of competitive new energy vehicles to the market in 2020, which is also an important reason for its departure from the United States.

According to the November sales data released by the China Travel Association, in addition to the "catfish" Tesla Model 3, which entered the competition, has firmly occupied the cumulative sales champion, and China's independent brands and new forces of car making have all delivered excellent answers. Among them, Hongguang Mini EV, which has surpassed Tesla in sales for four consecutive months, Euler black cat and BYD Han EV, whose monthly sales are gradually approaching the 10000 mark, while the cumulative sales volume of several new car making forces such as ideal one, Xiaopeng P7 and Weilai ES6 have all reached the 10000 mark this year.

Similar to the Chinese market, Volkswagen, Renault, Peugeot Citroen and other European car companies also have new energy models that can compete with Tesla Model 3. According to statista, as of the end of October, Renault's Zoe was still the champion in the sales of electric vehicles in the European market, while electric vehicle models including Volkswagen e-Golf, Audi e-tron and Peugeot e-208 followed model 3.

A bigger variable comes from the ID family built by Volkswagen Group relying on MEB electric platform. Among them, id.3, known as electric golf, has been delivered at the end of September. Id.3 pushed Renault Zoe and Tesla Model 3 to the top of the list with 10590 sales in October, according to JATO, an auto industry consultancy. Volkswagen will also launch an electric SUV id.4 next year to counter Tesla's model y. In addition, VW plans to produce a more affordable id.2 in Volkswagen (Anhui) from 2023 and export it back to the local market.

In contrast to China and Europe, Tesla is the largest in the US market. Although Tesla's sales of 228900 vehicles in the U.S. market in the first three quarters are much higher than the company's total sales in China and Europe, Tesla, which accounts for 81% of the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States, is still unable to lead the U.S. new energy vehicle market to catch up with China and Europe. The Chevrolet bolt, second only to Tesla in the sales list of new energy vehicles in the United States, has a driving range of only 330 km, and its sales volume is only less than one tenth of model 3. As for the Toyota Prius, which was once the "cover up" of the new energy vehicle market in the United States, it has already fallen outside the top five of the new energy vehicle list.

Europe catching up with East Asia

With the European new energy vehicle market gradually catching up with China, another change is that Europe is increasingly determined to get rid of the dependence of power battery manufacturing on East Asian countries.

The manufacturing of power batteries has been firmly controlled by Panasonic, Ningde era and LG Chemical for many years. This is unacceptable for the European Union, which regards the automobile industry as the economic pillar. Since the end of last year, the European battery Union led by France and Germany announced to invest 3.2 billion euro to strengthen the R & D and production of power batteries.

Although the alliance was not favored by the outside world at the beginning, the power battery factories successively invested and built in the EU this year have proved that the implementation of its power battery strategy is unexpectedly smooth.

The biggest highlight is that musk announced that it would build the world's largest power battery factory with an annual capacity of 100 GWH within the framework of Berlin super factory. In the plan, the annual capacity will be further expanded to 250 GWH after 2024. Musk's ambitious plan for power battery factory is not fanciful. According to the prediction of Volkswagen Group, the group will need 150 GWH of annual power battery capacity in Europe by 2025 alone. The French government also predicts that the demand of French local automobile enterprises for power battery will reach 170 GWH in 2030.

In addition to relying on foreign brand Tesla, European car companies are also trying to find a way independent of East Asia by cooperating with start-ups. Some of the projects of great concern include the 24 GWH power battery factory with 1.3 billion euro joint venture between Volkswagen and Swedish start-up northvolt, a battery factory jointly owned by Peugeot Citroen and local enterprise saft, a 16 GWH power battery factory jointly invested by French enterprise Vektor and Schneider Electric, and a 50 GWH capacity Swedish super factory built by northvol alone.

In addition, the rise of new energy vehicles in the European market has also attracted Chinese capital. In addition to the Ningde era of investment and construction in Turing, Germany, honeycomb energy has also announced that it will invest 2 billion euro to build a 24 GWH battery factory in Saarland, Germany, and Funeng technology will also invest 600 million euro to build a factory in Germany to further support the electric strategy of Daimler group.