From Savage Growth To New Variable Driven: 2020 Travel "War" Into Midfield

"Internet +" transportation is profoundly changing the way people travel. By the end of 2019, online car Hailing has covered more than 400 cities across the country, and the daily average usage of the platform has reached 20 million person times. Bike sharing has effectively solved the "last mile" problem. More than 70 cities have issued detailed rules for bike sharing management. More than 360 cities have provided bike sharing services, with an average daily usage of about 45.7 million people. " On December 22, the State Council Information Office issued a white paper entitled "sustainable development of China's transportation".

It is worth noting that the demand for taxi travel of the elderly has also been concerned recently. On December 25, the transportation service department of the Ministry of transport pointed out that it would organize various platform companies to focus on optimizing services, including optimizing the functions of online car Hailing software, adding the "one button call" function that is convenient for the elderly to use, relying on 95128 car Hailing service number to maintain patrol taxi call service, and accelerate the opening of telephone calling service of main online car Hailing platforms through technical means Provide priority distribution for the elderly.

In fact, as a major wave of automobile industry, "sharing" is profoundly changing the way Chinese people travel.

At present, China's shared travel segments and product services are very diversified, including bicycles, electric vehicles, automobiles, public transport, etc.; the sharing modes include cruise taxi, carpool, time sharing, private car sharing, online car hailing, etc.

At the same time, the war of shared travel has never been extinguished. From 2012 to now, the barbaric growth of sharing travel burning money from the platform has gradually restored rationality and precipitated into a relatively mature new industry state.

In China's four wheel travel market, sharing has become a wind outlet. From didi and Kuai subsidies war to Geely, SAIC, FAW and other shared travel platforms based on the background of vehicle enterprises, and then to the establishment, reshuffle and market clearing of gofun travel, Tigo, ezzy and panda, the value of science and technology empowerment has become increasingly apparent, and the industry has gradually entered a mature period with clear path.

In the two wheeled vehicle sharing market, starting from 2015, the entire two wheel shared travel industry has experienced the expansion period of capital catalysis, to a large number of players whose business models have been falsified and do not constitute the core competitiveness have been shuffled out. With the announcement of Moby's complete withdrawal from the stage of history on December 14, only three major brands, namely halo, meituan and Didi, were left in the two rounds of shared travel operation across the country.

From traditional main engine plants to new forces of car making, from Internet giants to technology enterprises to energy companies, the industrial path of shared travel is gradually clear in the wrestling and integration of the participants around the reform of travel industry.

"2020 is only a starting point. We believe that in 10 years' time, the proportion of shared travel in China and even in the world will increase from 3% to 30%. Shared travel services are not only the vision of Didi, but also gradually become the consensus of the industry." In the view of didi founder Cheng Wei, sharing is still the best solution for future travel.

Travel "war" into midfield

In 2020, the impact of the outbreak is particularly differentiated in the travel market: on the one hand, the growth rate of the travel industry gradually slows down, and the total output value declines in stages; on the other hand, people's travel needs and habits have changed, personalized travel mode has been developed rapidly, and customized, reserved and shared travel modes are welcomed.

According to the data of the Ministry of communications, up to now, more than 190 platform companies in the field of online car Hailing have obtained business licenses. More than 2.5 million drivers have obtained license services. One million compliant vehicles have been put into the market. The average daily orders have reached 21 million, accounting for about 20% of the total taxi passenger volume. Shared bicycles have been put into operation in 360 cities across the country, with an average daily riding volume of 45.7 million More than 200000 vehicles have been put into operation in the field of time sharing leasing.

It is worth noting that at the key node of the automobile industry turning into the stock game era, the reform in the field of travel is ready to go, and the main engine plants, travel platforms and technology companies rush to share the travel track, and the competition in China's travel service market is becoming more and more fierce.

In the early years, car companies were regarded as "digesting inventory". After all, heavy assets and difficult profitability are obvious challenges. In recent years, it has become a consensus in the industry that car companies are transforming to travel service providers. The logic behind it is that the auto market is nearly saturated, the industry is changing from incremental competition to stock competition, and the travel market is a vast blue ocean.

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the market value of shared travel in the United States, Europe and China will reach 1.5 trillion US dollars (about 10036.8 billion yuan), with an average annual compound growth rate (2017-2030) of about 24%. Among them, the market value of shared travel in China will be 564 billion US dollars (about 3773.8 billion yuan), with an average annual growth rate of 32%.

Dong Yang, vice chairman of China electric vehicle 100 people's Association, also affirmed the development of shared travel. He said, "shared travel will not affect the development of the automobile industry. In the next 10-20 years, the number of cars will not be reduced due to the development of shared travel. China's car ownership still has double growth space."

Therefore, according to incomplete statistics, more than 20 car companies have entered the online car Hailing market through direct and indirect means, from Caocao travel of Geely to Qimiao travel of FAW, Oule travel of great wall, enjoyment road travel of SAIC and T3 travel of heavyweight players.

"The advantages of the host plant's network car Hailing lie in the aspects of vehicle customization and vehicle transformation. But again, there are disadvantages. The main engine factory enters the market, is only a single big shareholder. In the capital market, the ability of a single host plant to obtain external capital is relatively weak. Because its own degree of correlation is too strong, which leads to the capital market for investment in them will have a very cautious attitude. In addition, it is difficult for a single host plant to be flexible in mechanism. " Cui Dayong, CEO of T3 travel, has publicly said that in the next 2-3 years, the online car Hailing industry will form a "3 + X" competition pattern, and the industry will continue to shuffle. In the middle and lower reaches of the player survival will become more difficult, pressure will be great.

Analysys analysis believes that in the next 1-2 years, the online car Hailing market will present a competitive pattern that "top enterprises such as didi will dominate the country by platform mode, and B2C self run enterprises will focus on regional development".

It is worth noting that with the rise of rising stars such as T3 travel and Cao Cao with strong backstage and congenital resources, Didi's market share is being eroded.

"Didi is actually facing some challenges this year, because in terms of total volume, many car companies are speeding up the layout of online car Hailing market, and Didi's share will inevitably decrease. To achieve the original market share, it means to spend a greater price." In the view of Zhang Junyi, deputy general manager and chief operating officer of Ping An smart enterprise, Didi will face challenges in the regional market in the face of the entry of auto enterprises, the state's requirements for online car Hailing compliance and the monopoly problems brought about by the merger of didi and Uber.

However, from the current overall number of users, the mainstream market pattern of online car Hailing has basically formed. Sinking market is becoming a new business growth point.

According to the data released by China Internet Information Center, by March 2020, the number of online car Hailing users in China has reached 362 million, accounting for 40.1% of the total Internet users. In terms of user scale and penetration rate, it has been in a relatively stable level. In addition, compared with the first and second tier cities, the online car Hailing market in the third and fourth tier cities remains to be explored due to the constraints of Internet development level and consumption capacity.

New variables driving industry transformation

Starting from 2020, the shared travel market is ushering in changes driven by new variables.

In the field of policy, on July 15, 2020, the national development and Reform Commission and other 13 ministries and commissions issued the opinions on supporting the healthy development of new business forms and new models, activating the consumer market and driving employment expansion, encouraging the intelligent upgrading of products such as shared travel and business model innovation, and promoting the "Internet +" and big data, platform economy to a new stage. Under the stimulation of many aspects, the transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry, represented by the change of travel mode, will accelerate in an all-round way.

On the enterprise side, Dida travel went to Hong Kong for IPO in October this year, which is expected to become the first share of shared travel; in November, didi and BYD jointly launched the world's first customized online car hailing, and the new payment mode may rewrite the commercialization path of shared travel. At the same time, traditional automobile enterprises are also speeding up the layout of "Travel + service", and take it as the starting point of transformation to travel service providers.

At the same time, with the in-depth development of the automobile revolution towards intelligence and networking, the automobile has gradually developed into a mobile intelligent terminal with "data determines experience and software defined products". The traditional automobile industry chain has been reconstructed in a large scale, and the construction of future travel industry chain has begun to take shape. The deep integration of shared travel and automatic driving is building a new travel service ecology and reshaping the future travel service Experience.

"The traditional C2C platform is the 1.0 stage of the online car Hailing market; the operation mode based on the Internet of vehicles platform is the 2.0 stage of the online car Hailing market; and the unmanned driving is the 3.0 stage. In the era of driverless driving, there is no logic for private cars, so the ultimate format must be B2C mode. " Cui Dayong believes that any online car Hailing platform may develop into a "C2C + B2C" hybrid mode in the future.

According to the prediction of UBS group, the size of the global self driving taxi market may exceed $2 trillion by 2030. Among them, the Chinese market is an important force. McKinsey research report points out that China will be the world's largest autonomous driving market. By 2030, the total sales of self driving vehicles will reach 230 billion US dollars, and the amount of travel service orders based on automatic driving will reach 260 billion US dollars.

Although the general direction of future travel has been determined, in the view of the industry, in the future, in the field of shared travel, especially in the field of driverless shared travel, there will be no manufacturing capacity or vehicle will be difficult. The customized vehicle is undoubtedly an unavoidable problem for travel service providers.

The future oriented travel reform is not only a hardware change, but also a change of hardware + software + service integration. A contest about "customized travel" has already started quietly. Including Geely, Dongfeng and other main engine manufacturers have already announced that they will soon launch customized online car Hailing.

Among them, the travel enterprises represented by Cao Cao's travel and T3 travel behavior rely on vehicle manufacturing, which has inherent manufacturing advantages; while Didi, which started from the Internet, actively cooperates with automobile enterprises to create online car Hailing models, and cooperates with BYD to launch customized online car Hailing D1.

Facing the future, the car in the sharing business will not only be a vehicle to meet the travel needs of consumers, but also be data-oriented. The experience of each passenger and the feedback of each driver will be transmitted to the R & D department at the first time, thus making the vehicle an intelligent terminal with rapid iteration.

More importantly, with the superposition of electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing, the industry believes that there is still a lot of room for development in the shared travel market, and there is still a lot to be done by each platform. Next, players from all walks of life need to focus on people and travel needs, study travel scenarios, travel modes and travel ecology, coordinate refined operation with travel ecology, open new space and explore more dimensions for shared travel pain points.