Hidden Cold Winter: Natural Gas Rises 1000 Yuan / Ton In Two Months, Stable Supply And Price
In less than 15 days, northern China will officially enter the freezing and heating season.
According to the data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, "La Nina" is expected to last for the whole winter with a probability of 75%, which is likely to cause the winter climate in China to be colder. Therefore, the market generally expects that the heating energy demand this winter will have a greater growth.
Compared with the crude oil price of 36t / LNG at the beginning of September, the price of natural gas rose by more than RMB 88 / ton in Shanghai as of the beginning of September. However, compared with the price close to 4200 yuan / ton at the end of October last year, the price decreased by nearly 12% year on year.
"This year's natural gas market, especially the LNG market, has been greatly affected by the epidemic situation." Zhuo Chuang information analyst Guojian told reporters, "at present, the rise in this period of time is more driven by market sentiment, and there has been some decline in the spot market. The real situation will not be known until winter."
Xu wenman, assistant general manager of Kunlun energy company, told reporters that with the advent of the fourth quarter, the demand for heating gas will rise and the epidemic situation will ease. It is estimated that the national demand for natural gas will be 155.5 billion cubic meters this winter and next spring, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5 billion cubic meters and a growth rate of 9.5%. China's natural gas supply and demand is still in a tight balance.
"Can't go up again"
In just two months, it has increased by 1000 yuan / ton, but many market participants have told reporters that the current increase and price are not unreasonable and belong to normal phenomenon.
"Compared with previous years, especially in the last cold winter of 2017, this year's price increase is not exaggerated, and the rising opportunity is relatively normal." Liu guangbin, director of less better natural gas division, told reporters, "as an important energy reserve, LNG in previous years will also rise in this period of time."
However, affected by this year's epidemic, the annual apparent consumption of natural gas increased by about 3% to 4%, lower than the level of the past few years. Therefore, since March this year, domestic LNG prices have remained at a low level of about 3000 yuan / ton.
"As the overall reserve and supply work is relatively sufficient this year, it is almost impossible for the LNG price to soar to 10000 yuan / T at the end of 2017." Liu guangbin said, "at present, this round of price rise has shown a certain decline trend. After the large-scale heating work starts in mid November, LNG prices may be difficult to continue to have this kind of upward trend, and will maintain at the normal winter price level."
On September 30, the state pipeline network Group Corporation held a signing ceremony for the delivery and operation handover of oil and gas pipeline network assets. So far, the national pipeline network company announced the formal operation, and China's main oil and gas pipelines have finally realized the grid connected operation.
Starting from October 1, the state pipeline network group will take over the relevant oil and gas pipeline infrastructure assets (business) and personnel originally belonging to the three major oil companies, and formally connect to the grid for operation. This also marks a key point of China's oil and gas market reform -- the market-oriented reform of oil and gas pipeline network operation mechanism has achieved phased results.
The winter of 2020 is also the first "big test" after the establishment of national pipeline network company. Whether the stable and orderly supply of natural gas in winter is the key to this round of test.
In October this year, the state pipeline network company issued a document in the pipeline network, and introduced the "shipper" system. Any enterprise that meets the requirements can become the shipper of the national pipeline network company and use the company's oil and gas infrastructure. Up to now, large companies have announced that Sinopec and new Austrian gas have been shortlisted as shippers.
It is worth mentioning that at present, there are some leading LNG traders in China, whose business volume has reached or even exceeded 1 million tons / year. For these traders, the fair use of the infrastructure under the national pipeline network can make them more convenient and flexible to choose cheap overseas gas sources, reduce costs and improve operational efficiency.
"In this sense, the decline in domestic natural gas prices has become a trend." Liu guangbin told reporters, "in the future, the upstream sources of the domestic market will be more abundant, and large-scale city gas enterprises may become suppliers and transport them to the sales areas through leasing relevant infrastructure. However, it may be some time before the real price falls. "
At the same time, compared with the past, the national pipeline network company can realize the interconnection of natural gas pipeline network more smoothly, make the natural gas supply guarantee work more smooth, make the vast majority of areas realize the stable supply of natural gas in winter, and ensure that the natural gas increased in the upstream can appear in the most needed areas this year.
The market supply is relatively sufficient
According to Xinhua news agency, on October 23 Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, attended a teleconference on the work of keeping warm and supplying heat in northern China this winter and next spring. Han Zheng stressed that all relevant units should compact their responsibilities and strive to achieve "five guarantees" such as smooth operation of the supply and maintenance mechanism, no problems with people's livelihood gas consumption, continuous and stable resource supply, effective peak shaving of gas storage, and safety of energy and energy supply.
At the teleconference, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, China's three major natural gas suppliers, made clear their respective natural gas supply situation.
As a producer and supplier with a domestic natural gas market share of more than 60%, PetroChina briefed reporters on the natural gas resource preparation for this winter.
In terms of exploration, as of 2019, more than 400 billion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves have been added for 13 consecutive years. In 2020, it is planned to add 600 billion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves in Ordos, Sichuan, Tarim and other basins.
In terms of production, from January to September this year, PetroChina produced 95.01 billion cubic meters of gas, an increase of 8.4 percent, and its daily natural gas production reached a record high. It is estimated that it will produce more than 128 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the whole year, with an increase of 10 billion cubic meters. During the winter supply period, the domestic and foreign resources will be 98.67 billion cubic meters, an increase of 10.01 billion cubic meters.
In terms of production of different oil and gas fields, PetroChina's three major natural gas production areas Changqing Oilfield, Tarim Oilfield and southwest oil and gas field have increased their power to expand production. Changqing Oilfield, Tarim Oilfield and southwest oil and gas field produced 139.08 million m3 / D, 93.21 million m3 / D and 104.78 million m3 / D respectively, with a total increase of 21.31 million m3 / d.
In terms of reserves, due to the impact of this year's epidemic, the growth rate of natural gas apparent consumption has declined compared with previous years, and the overall reserve work started earlier. At present, all the gas storages under CNPC have reached full capacity. "For many gas storages, the workload is almost completely completed this year, and some of them have even overfulfilled," a person familiar with the gas storage business told reporters.
In terms of imported natural gas, as of mid September, international oil companies have purchased 46.4 billion cubic meters of overseas natural gas, including 62% from Central Asia, 25% from offshore liquefied natural gas (LNG), 7% from Myanmar, and 6% from Russia's east line.
It is worth mentioning that due to the impact of the epidemic, PetroChina's natural gas import has declined significantly this year. However, the above-mentioned companies still told reporters that they have ensured diversified imported gas supply in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year from various channels and aspects. (Editor: Lin Hong)
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