After The Double Festival, The Domestic Cotton Market Is Hot

According to the statistics of the business agency, as of October 13, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 13851 yuan / ton, which was 938 yuan / ton higher than that on October 1, or 7.26%, and 9.56% higher than that of last year. In the first ten days of October, cotton rose sharply in ice period. On the one hand, the prices of international agricultural products generally rose, and cotton took advantage of the wind; on the other hand, the hurricane weather in the United States slowed down the picking progress of new cotton; of course, the continued easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve boosted market confidence and other factors.

Hurricane delta landed in the United States Delta, and the rainfall brought by the hurricane posed a great threat to the quality and yield of American cotton. During the double festival period, ice cotton futures rose continuously. As of October 13, the main contract was 68.37 cents / pound, and the last trial was 70 cents / pound. However, in the near future, cotton rapid upward trend after the fall, upward pressure is still in the short term may tend to high consolidation.

American cotton production is expected to be reduced, and the supply and demand side remains basically unchanged. According to the global production and demand forecast released by the US Department of agriculture in October, the US cotton production in 2020 / 21 will be reduced by 1% month on month to 17.9 million bales. There was no change in US domestic consumption, exports and ending inventory. The U.S. inventory at the end of the period was still 7.2 million bales, with an inventory consumption ratio of 42%, up from 41% last month.

Global cotton inventory price adjustment at the end of the period, consumption increased. In 2020 / 21, global cotton production will be reduced, consumption and imports will be increased, and ending inventory will be decreased. Global production was cut by 900000 bales, mainly from Mali, Pakistan and Greece. Global consumption increased by 1.5 million packets on a month on month basis, mainly from China and India. At the end of the period, the global inventory decreased by 2.7 million packages to 111.1 million packages, and the inventory consumption ratio was 89%.

Domestic Zheng cotton main one-day touch limit, spot two-day rise 4.5%. After the double festival, Zheng Mianjing of China caught up with the international cotton price for three consecutive days, with an increase of more than 2%. The biggest increase was on October 12, with an increase of 5.28% on that day. From the perspective of the current chart, in late September, cotton basically fluctuated horizontally, but in October, cotton prices soared. On the one hand, the international price of cotton has been rising, and Zheng cotton in China has been following up; on the other hand, on the first day of listing of staple fiber, the fluctuation in a short period of time has a certain supporting effect on textile fiber raw materials. Cotton and viscose staple fiber increased significantly. As of October 13, 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was reported at 9680 yuan / ton, up 5.68% compared with October 1.

As of October 13, 32S ring spun cotton yarn in Shandong Province was reported at 20025 yuan / ton, up 375 yuan / ton, or 1.91%, or 8.65% month on month. Due to the return of the double festival, the cotton price rose by nearly 1000 yuan / ton, and the raw material price soared. Although the cotton yarn manufacturer had a quotation, it was necessary to make a separate price before placing an order. Many manufacturers agreed to implement the short-term offer, which was valid on the same day and invalid overnight. On the one hand, this is the manufacturer's promotion means, on the other hand, the recent single day fluctuation of cotton price is indeed too large, and the risk of cotton cost swing increases. Textile enterprises take advantage of the rising raw materials to strive for the expansion of profit space.

Business agency analysts believe that the United States delayed sanctions on Xinjiang cotton in late September, the impact of the hurricane on the quality of American cotton, cotton market bullish sentiment, at the same time, downstream orders increased, textile enterprises consumption improved, cotton price upward transmission is more smooth. However, from the data point of view, the global cotton inventory at the end of the period is still at a high level, except for China and India, cotton consumption recovered in general. On October 13, the main force of Zheng cotton broke through 14000 yuan / ton, the trade environment was uncertain, and the market was cautious to catch up. It is expected that the short-term high consolidation will be the main trend, and the spot price will continue to rise and the rise will slow down.