Yarn: You See, I Look Like Before

Just before Jin jiulai came, there was a lot of hype in the yarn market. Did the epidemic situation turn around or the demand improved? Think about the situation of a large enterprise selling goods is still fresh in my mind, how to raise the price? Do you really want to go up? Can it go up? What am I going to raise? I'm afraid those immortal customers will not buy it. It's hard to do it.

According to Longzhong, since the middle and late August, CVC series and C / JC 32S / 40s inquiry orders have gradually improved. Southern and eastern coastal areas have taken the lead in response, and the rise has gradually spread to other regions. With the leading enterprises in the industry to raise the quotation of 200-500 yuan / ton for the best-selling and low stock varieties; by the beginning of September, more and more yarn enterprises felt the atmosphere of speculation, among which the high count yarn enterprises quoted 500-700 yuan / ton for yarns above 60s.

On the whole, after the middle of August, there was a wave of centralized orders of external orders in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The market suddenly became lively, and the industry paid close attention to it. Looking forward to it, they sincerely hoped that the market would improve. Seeing a bunch of good signals, and at the time of the transition between the weak and the peak seasons, some yarn enterprises, taking into account the dilemma of spinning profit and even loss, intend to stop the decline by rising and sell with the rise, accelerate the de stocking to meet the real peak season, so as to realize the return of yarn price and profit.

The core elements of price increase of pure cotton yarn and cotton blended yarn are as follows:

1. Raw materials stretch up and yarn drops;

After the historic decline of raw cotton, it has been on the road to restore its own valuation since April, but the yarn price is still extending to the low level, and the operating pressure of textile enterprises continues to rise. During this period, the continuous fermentation and storage of the epidemic aggravated the supply pattern, and the trade relations continued to tighten. The cotton price of 3128b increased by 1500 yuan / ton, and the yarn price decreased by 1000-1200 yuan / ton. Its completely back to the trend, completely changed the previous trend of the same rise and fall.

2. The demand of the terminal has returned, and the weaving start-up has been rising for four consecutive times;

According to Longzhong's statistical data, as of September 3, the national cotton textile comprehensive start-up rate was around 52.13%, up 0.74% month on month, and has been rebounding for four consecutive weeks. For air-jet looms, the average starting rate is 57.61%. On the whole, there is a gap in demand compared with the same period, but it has improved compared with the previous period. The spooky market situation under the epidemic situation makes the industry more cautious. The arrival of some foreign orders ahead of time gives the expectation of market recovery. At present, we need to pay attention to the further and continuous single placement of foreign orders. Domestic trade market has seasonal demand orders, double orders, give the market continued to warm up expectations. For circular machines, the average operating rate was 46.65%. In the early stage, the start-up rate of most of the parking factories has been maintained at around 50%, which is higher at 9-10%. A small number of circular machine factories have relatively sufficient orders, and have been operating at full capacity since August. It is estimated that there is still room for increase in the start-up rate of large circular machines next week.

3. The long-term loss of yarn, the risk of deflation is increasing, and the industry is looking forward to the return of profits;

Yarn prices down, raw materials up, its completely contrary trend, further squeezing spinning profits. At present, the breakeven processing cost of textile enterprises is about 4500, which is lower than that of 5000 in previous years. On the current disk processing costs, 32S labor costs are around 4000, relative to many enterprises, there is no profit space. Although enterprises are reducing the cost of raw materials, reducing the noil rate, and reducing the financial costs, the actual difficulties are still much greater, and it is still impossible to avoid losses. Many enterprises keep the circulation of goods under cost and slight loss, but they are not willing to make deep losses. Some enterprises in some regions have reduced their employees' welfare to the minimum, even to reduce their salaries, so as to avoid operating risks and enter the state of deep loss. At the same time, the disc processing cost of blended yarn is actually the same. CVC 60 / 40 32S breakeven processing fee has been reduced to 4800-5000. At present, the market price is on the break even line, and there is still a long way to go for the return of yarn profit.

On the whole, the overseas epidemic situation continues, the global economic recovery is slow, many countries see their own shortcomings, and the serious dependence on foreign countries makes it difficult for them to realize self-sufficiency, but they have certain resistance to China, which supplies the world. At present, the trade friction continues, and has the tendency to continue to escalate, and the border crisis and competition with India are becoming more and more intense. Although the market rigid demand still exists, there is bound to be a long-term domestic and external damage to China, which is not expected to recover rapidly; the domestic demand environment will improve in the peak season, but it also lacks the significant benefits of pulling the return. In addition, the international crude oil fell, dragging down the polyester plate, and the fall of ice triggered more market concerns. In the short term, the yarn market should be treated rationally, and the enterprises should actively de stock under the rising mood, so as to obtain more cost support and demand side recovery, and realize the price rise under the resonance effect, so as to consolidate the transaction.