Sales Of Top 100 Real Estate Companies Went Up In The Off-Season Of July, But Did The Property Market Stabilize In The Second Half Of The Year?

The upsurge in the second quarter continued to July, and the top 100 real estate companies handed out their brilliant report cards. In July, the year-on-year growth rate of sales reached a new high in the year, and many real estate enterprises' sales growth rate exceeded 20%.

With good performance in the front, real estate enterprises began to lay out the future, and the land market in July still showed a trend of rising both in quantity and price.

Kerry Research Center pointed out that the second half of the year as a key period for real estate enterprises to seize the performance, the supply may be further increased. However, in the environment where risks are still frequent, the market is still turbulent. Only when the word is stable can we win the market in the second half of the year.

At present, many cities have adopted policies, issued new policies, tightened regulation and control, and rectified the local "magic rise" market. Many securities companies believe that the performance of the real estate market in the second half of the year will still be stable, and there will be no big shock.

Off season sales in July

After the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, Evergrande took the lead in the competition of catching up with and surpassing the real estate enterprises.

In the past half a year, Evergrande's real estate advertising has been on the Internet. Since February, Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande, has taken the lead in selling real estate online. Taking "hengfangtong" as the platform, he has launched a combination of buying a house with a discount of 7.5% and selling a house to earn commission, so as to vigorously promote the sales.

The effect is significant. According to Kerui data, in July, Evergrande achieved a sales volume of 65.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.37%, far higher than that of country garden and Vanke.

Represented by Evergrande, the whole real estate market is showing an anti seasonal boom. As the epidemic disrupted the sales rhythm of real estate enterprises, the golden season of the market was postponed, and the market was not weak in July this year.

According to Kerui data, in July, the equity sales of top 100 real estate enterprises reached 938.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.7%, a new high since the correction in April this year. The performance of the top seven hundred real estate enterprises increased year on year, and most of them were more than 20%. CITIC Securities believes that this is mainly due to the real estate enterprises grasp the hot sales window in July and continue to increase the push of goods.

In July, the top 50 real estate companies performed better. In the first month, the sales of jukeyuan and Biguiyuan increased by RMB 2.68 billion and RMB 7.68 billion respectively. The performance of poly, China Resources, Jinmao, Jindi, Jinke, Xuhui, Lvcheng and other real estate enterprises have also greatly improved. Shimao, with a sudden increase of 29.07 billion yuan in July, squeezed out Longhu and successfully entered the top 10 sales list in the first seven months. However, the year-on-year increase of sales volume of top 51-100 real estate enterprises dropped slightly to 13%.

From the perspective of cities, the cumulative transaction area of 30 key monitoring cities increased by 8% year-on-year in July, among which, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other first tier cities have steadily increased. The heat of the second and third tier cities is lower than that of the first tier cities, but more than 60% of the transactions in these cities are positive on a year-on-year basis. Ningbo, Dongguan, Hangzhou, due to the "last bus policy" market, transactions were up more than 50% year-on-year.

In July, the market recovered to a stable growth in the first quarter. According to Kerui data, the sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises rose by 1.2% year-on-year from January to July, and became positive for the first time in the year, repairing the performance gap that lasted for half a year.

Not only the sales market, but also the land market is accelerating its recovery. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real estate, as of July 31, 2020, the land market in China continued to heat up, and the land sales volume in many cities continued to rise. The land sales in 50 major cities exceeded 2.35 trillion yuan in the year, up 17.4% year-on-year. Land transactions in Xiamen and other places appeared again with high premium rate.

At present, five hundred billion land selling cities, including Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing and Guangzhou, have appeared in this year, and four plots with a total price of 10 billion yuan have been built.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that under the influence of policies such as reducing reserve rate and interest rate, real estate enterprises have loose capital. In addition, some real estate enterprises judge that the market will stabilize rapidly, and in order to seize the market share, the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to take the land has risen greatly.

Zhang Dawei further judged that from the south to the north, markets around the country continued to recover. At present, most cities have gradually recovered to the average level before the epidemic.

The overall future is stable

In the past seven months, the market performance recovery, the expansion of the boom, there are still worries.

Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing and other cities have been overheated. In July, a plot in Chengdu high tech Zone was sold at a premium of 39.86%, and the floor price exceeded 20000 yuan / m2 for the first time, setting a new record for the highest land transaction price in Chengdu. In addition, there was a "ten thousand lottery" in Chengdu, with 58177 people in Cade Zhuojin Wandai real estate, and the winning rate was only 0.48%.

According to the house price report of China's 100 cities in the first half of 2020 released by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, in the first half of the year, Chengdu's house price rose as high as 21%, which was characterized as "house price overheating". Over 11 cities, including Zhuhai, Jiangyin, Suzhou, Chuzhou, Yinchuan, Nanchang, Harbin, Guilin, Chengdu, Wuhu and Qinhuangdao, house prices also increased by more than 20% year on year. In addition, the house prices in Hangzhou and Nanjing increased by 11% and 10% respectively.

The government has noticed that the property market in some cities is overheating. Recently, high-level officials have said that they should always tighten the "string" of real estate regulation and control, adhere to the goal of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices, and stabilizing expectations" and the positioning of "housing without speculation", so as to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

So far, more than eight cities, including Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Dongguan and Nanjing, have issued regulatory policies. We should stabilize the market from the aspects of restricting purchase, limiting loan and rectifying speculation. Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, believes that the effect of regulation has begun to show. It is expected that the second tier cities and the third tier cities within the metropolitan area will be the key areas of regulation in the second half of the year.

Li Yujia further added that the future regulatory policies will attach importance to the purchase restriction policy again and build a "firewall" after the weakening of loan restriction. Local areas or obvious tightening, mainly to combat speculation.

However, the tightening of regulatory policies will still be limited to a small range. Hua'an Securities pointed out that the current economic situation is still complex and grim. As an important part of stabilizing the economy, the possibility of substantial tightening of regulatory policies is low. Li Yujia also believes that the future regulatory policies will start to tighten on the basis of overall stability.

In the second half of the year, the real estate market is expected to be stable and stable.