Competition Between Supply And Demand Is Still Fierce.

A thousand worries, a fall, every day worries. After the May 1 holiday, the rise from crude oil to polyester was fierce. Some people say that price increase is a good thing. Only by raising prices can we stimulate demand and stimulate demand. The value of industrial chain products can be maximized and the popularity of the market can be activated. Is that so?

In May, OPEC began to implement the joint production reduction agreement, and oil prices surged again. The seven consecutive week decline in US oil drilling is the main favorable factor. And according to the agreement, OPEC + statement: it will reduce production from 9 million 700 thousand barrels per day from May 1, 2020 to two months, which is boosted by 4 days. As of 8 days, the crude oil WTI 06 contract was 23.99 dollars / barrel; Brent 07 contract 29.72 US dollars / barrel. It rose by 27.33% and 17.61% before the holidays.

According to statistics, the three day before the May 1 holiday, the market production and sales were relatively stable, and the enterprises were more stable. However, due to the continuous rebound of oil prices and the accident of Ningbo raw material factory installation, the multiple good news was lifted. In the latter half of the holiday, the demand for polyester increased, the factory price increased, the price of polyester filament increased, the end of the holiday, the wait-and-see sentiment gradually rose, and the market production and sales fell rapidly. Oil prices continue to rise, cost side support, polyester filament enterprises continue to explore the rise, and a slight increase in the previous period, driven by rising sentiment, polyester production and sales volume.

The price of raw materials suddenly rose sharply, and even sold for sale. Driven by the mentality of buying or selling, the downstream weaving factories would add more or less raw materials to the purchase of enthusiasm.

Indeed, in recent times, demand for protective clothing has been boosted, FDY production and sales have been warmer, and demand for protective clothing is limited. At present, orders for shroud bags have increased, driving the polyester market again. According to the director of a funeral supplies company, the export volume of the shroud in the past year was about 100 thousand, but in the past two months, it was directly to 3 million, 5 million or even 10 million of the large single inquiry. There are many materials on the market, such as Oxford cloth, spring Asian spinning, non-woven fabrics, nylon cloth, PVC waterproofing cloth, OPP, PVA, LLDP, etc. the polyester materials commonly used in Oxford cloth and spring subwovens generally use more DTY. Some of them can also be replaced by FDY, which can be applied to a specific range. The demand is very limited, the sales difficulty is greater, and the production cycle is longer. Doubts remain.

Citing data from Alibaba international station, the number of funeral products orders increased by 487% in March compared with February. From March 20th to April 20th, the volume of enquiries for shroud bags increased by 22100%; the three of funeral supplies flows were the United States, Mexico and Italy, and the United States far exceeded other countries. At present, the United States has more than a million confirmed diagnoses. In order to meet the rising demand, other manufacturers in other industries are also replacing new equipment, and will soon turn to funeral supplies.

There is no sign of demand for conventional fabrics, and the demand for materials for public health control is relatively short. For weaving enterprises, spring Asian spinning, polyester taffeta and Oxford cloth are more popular conventional fabrics. Short term growth can not drive other fabrics to go, but the entry threshold of conventional fabrics is low. Once the enterprise follows suit, it will easily lead to oversupply, and enterprises will enter the storehouse stage. At present, influenced by public health events, masks were popular in the first half, and the protective clothing for midfielders appeared. The shroud bags were hot in the second half, but there was no new orders for conventional clothing and home textiles.

It is reported that some foreign brands in the summer compared to the same period reduced by 7, in May, the market is hard to say optimistic. During the May 1 period, the weaving enterprises in various regions stopped working and holidays were relatively concentrated, and the rate of opening up of industries generally declined. At present, enterprises that have stopped working for 3-5 days have returned to work, and the shutdown time is 7-10 days. The enterprises have not yet started, and the initial plan is to resume operation in May 8th or May 10th. As of May 6th, the overall loom rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was 46.39%, down 4.8 percentage points from the end of 4.

Some European countries and the United States have lifted the blockade to different levels and promoted the resumption of work and production. However, the number of new arrivals is still increasing. According to the latest statistics, more than 3 million 680 thousand cases have been diagnosed globally, and more than 1 million 240 thousand cases have been diagnosed in the United States. Among them, the risk of cluster infection is still rising, with more than 42000 medical staff in Spain infected. The total number of confirmed slums in India is approaching 600 cases, and is still rising.

Some experts warn that the current situation in the United States is still very grim. The hospital medical system is still in an overloaded state. With the continuous expansion of detection scope, the shortage of us protective equipment will only become more serious. At present, some Southeast Asian countries have announced the extension of the ban time, the global crisis has not yet been lifted, and the terminal demand can hardly be substantially improved in the short term.

In the recent stage, the increase of polyester increased the downstream resistance. In the past two days, the polyester market had begun to operate smoothly. In addition to the sporadic replenishment operations of textile enterprises with individual models, most manufacturers still choose to watch carefully. This year's market has let everyone lose confidence in the bottom of the book, once again, the procurement has become more cautious, and the global economic recovery caused by the epidemic has been slow. Now we are fighting for funds and fighting for the strength.

In the short term, the release of international crude oil has a certain support for the cost side, but crude oil is still a bit out of line with the implementation rate of production cuts. If this situation does not break through, the current situation of serious excess supply and demand of crude oil will be difficult to alleviate.

At present, the price of polyester yarn has dropped to near the lowest level before, and the price is not much lower. However, there is still concern and hope that the market will get warmer. But today's market wants to rise, or the downstream terminal demand is improved, or the upstream support power is strong enough. However, judging from the current situation, the impact of downstream terminal demand is the key factor determining whether prices can continue to rise. The shortage of terminal orders and the intensity of procurement are not enough. Even though the rise of silk prices may also be short-lived, the change of the environment still needs time to cater for.

The increase in the upstream price is also a speculation by many operators, because downstream demand is not optimistic. But as we have said before, there is volatility and hope in the rising market, and the market that has experienced continuous decline and lethargy, even if it is speculation, hopes that the price will continue to rise for some time.