Shanghai Triggers A "Warming Up" In The Yangtze Delta Property Market: Transaction Structure Change, VS Demand Accumulation And Release

"I see friends circle, many friends set up townhouses and villas on May 1 holiday." A real estate agent told the economic report twenty-first Century.

In May, the volume of Shanghai property market was significantly warmer.

Data from Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate show that between May 1st and May 8th, Shanghai's total volume of 253 thousand square meters, an increase of 145.6% over the same period last year. In addition, the prices of houses in the Chinese and foreign rings and the houses in the inner ring were the highest, with the average price being 77 thousand yuan / square meter at home and abroad, up 16.7% over the same period, and the average price of the inner ring was 120 thousand yuan / square meter, up 7.6% compared to the same period last year. At the same time, Shanghai's central area has reached an area of 62552 square meters during the period, up nearly 6 times compared with the same period last year. The first purchase needs more concentrated suburbs, and the area has increased by nearly 30%. Residential transactions rose significantly, the industry believes that as the supply up, the recent sales of luxury products to better.

Part of this year's consumers who buy a house plan, May Day holiday catalyzed the needs of this crowd. "Or wait for a long time to open the project, or fear of rising housing prices, their consumption mentality has come back."

Zhang Hongwei, chief analyst of the same policy research institute, pointed out that the warming of Shanghai's volume reflects the obvious structural factors of the overall market, the outstanding performance of the luxury housing market, the lack of recovery from the need to go to the market, and the second factor is that the pressure of transferring overseas cities to the urban property market is still relatively large. Relatively active areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have recovered well.

However, new projects such as Kade, Ming De, Vanke, and other high-end projects located in new Jingan have not been queued up during the May 1 period. Although the Shanghai property market is on the whole, is it a result of the change of transaction structure or the release of consumer demand?

Turnover in May 1 holiday increased by 207.8% over the same period last year.

During the May 1 holiday, property market transactions and online signature records fluctuated significantly. Institutional monitoring data show that overall, the real estate market in major cities is accelerating recovery.

At present, Shanghai has a high turnover in the transaction pattern, and Pudong New Area and Xuhui District ranks the top in the high-end projects. Before the May 1, there were many scenes of queuing and recognition of luxury housing in Shanghai.

According to Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate data, during the May 1st period (5.1-5.5), new commercial housing was 157 thousand square meters, an increase of 207.8% over last year's holiday. Higher supply is the main reason for the increase in volume. For example, the supply area of a project in Xuhui District, Shanghai is 32 thousand square meters (290 sets), which is 18.5% more than that of last year's May 1. Since the beginning of this year, high-end projects have been active in the market.

Shanghai Central Plains real estate market analyst Lu Wenxi said that in the first quarter of this year, sales of real estate were basically stagnant, and there was a demand for replenishment in May 1. Especially in the last week of April, a number of projects focused on opening up for the holiday property market to prepare adequate supply. This year's May Day has 5 days' holiday to promote consumers' holiday to see rooms and choose rooms. On the other hand, on the basis of epidemic factors, there are fewer people on long distance trips. Most of the short trips around Shanghai or Shanghai still allow some time to care about the property market.

Insiders warned that the property market was overheated in the first tier cities in 2015~2016, and the high prices of Housing enterprises Wang Pin now formed the expectation of price rise and panic in the market. A large amount of external funds poured into the land, which further promoted the increase of land prices, and the expectation of consumers' price rising became more and more intense, and gradually spread from the first tier cities to the surrounding areas. Eventually triggering a new round of regulation. In this regard, Lu Wenxi believes that the current financial environment has been different, when consumers purchase houses to recognize housing loans, the financial level in the consumer end regulation or tightening state. In contrast, the second tier city policy is flexible, and many housing companies are also making up the second tier land. Zhang Hongwei also believes that in the short term, there will be no strong reversal of wheel performance, and the keynote of regulation will not allow a big rebound.

Is the structural recovery of the market or the full recovery from the accumulation of consumer demand? Central Plains real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei's conclusion is a comprehensive recovery. The real estate market is recovering rapidly, and the probability of "little spring" has risen in May. He believes that the average recovery level of real estate in 4 has exceeded 80% in the same period last year, and some regions have begun to surpass the previous level. For many cities, the net signature data is relatively lagging behind, basically recovering the 80%-90% before the epidemic.

Zhang Dawei pointed out that from the mortgage data, the impact of interest rates gradually emerged, the rate of interest reduction in April 20th basically landed, the first suite of housing and two suites have been reduced by more than 10 basis points. Overall, the impact of talent policies on the market is everywhere. For the two quarter stability of the property market. But he also recognizes the market differentiation. As a whole, the most obvious recovery of the market in the first tier cities is Shenzhen and Shanghai. Recently, the number of houses in Beijing has also increased significantly, and Guangzhou is relatively weak. Shenzhen is expected to be stable because of its regional regulatory policy. In the second tier cities, Hangzhou and Nanjing took the lead in recovery. Recently, land, new residential and second-hand housing transactions are relatively active. The three or four line cities are relatively stable, and the recovery level is obviously weaker than that of the second tier cities.

Housing enterprises financing resurgence, land investment rebound

To be sure, the May 1 property market is getting warmer, and the market does give a signal of recovery, which is mainly reflected in the positive action of housing prices and the resurgence of financing in big housing enterprises.

Recently, the financing of large housing enterprises is relatively smooth. Housing enterprises credit debt financing costs continue to decline, at the same time, ABS become popular housing financing. However, due to the sharp fluctuations in overseas capital markets, Chinese US dollar debt was sold, and the enthusiasm of mainland housing companies to issue us dollar debt suddenly weakened. In April, no housing enterprises issued overseas debt.

Before the May 1 holiday, Nanjing, Shaoxing, Foshan, Yangzhou and other places took the same day, and many plots were sold by over 100 rounds of bidding. The highest premium rate was nearly 90%. The heat of the land market in some areas has increased. In April 30th, 5 plots sold in Nanjing attracted more than 20 housing companies to participate in the auction. Online bidding lasted two days. Among them, there are two homestead bidding times over 100 rounds. Vanke and Rong Chong each take 4 billion 350 million yuan and 4 billion 10 million yuan each to take one, the premium rate is 35% and 36%, two units are broken 40 thousand yuan / square meter.

The high premium plots frequently appeared in April, such as the total price and the unit price of "land king" in Xiamen island in April 22nd. A comprehensive number of third party data show that in April the land market volume and price rise, the average price of land transactions in 300 cities hit a new high since 2018; 40 typical cities land transactions construction area and land leasing income rose by over 100%, an increase of more than 20% over the same period.

The land market took the lead and became the driving force to boost consumers' pay. In many industry insiders, housing investment in the first quarter of the same quarter is also in the release of investment demand, of which the second tier cities recovery is more obvious, developers choose second tier cities at this time, consumers also choose to invest in a second tier cities.

From the recent land market fever, we can see that although the impact of the epidemic on the capital chain of Housing enterprises is large, the difficulty of domestic financing is reduced, and some enterprises have once again raised their enthusiasm for taking the initiative.

Frequent high premium plots and rising volume of luxury homes pose a pressure on subsequent market relay? In the light of the aforementioned insiders' view, the overheated land market will not happen. After all, the negative impact of the epidemic has not yet been completely eliminated.