On The First Day After The Spring Festival, Zheng Cotton Will Continue To Fall Or Maintain Its Future Trend.

After the Spring Festival, the trend of Zheng cotton's slight decline was not unexpected. The reason is that during the holiday season, there was little change in the domestic fundamentals. The cotton textile enterprises were in holiday mode, and the overall purchase and sales were flat. The US cotton ICE decreased by 1.52% in foreign countries, although the Sino US economic and trade consultations held in Washington on January 30th -31 achieved some results, but the impact on the US cotton market was limited. The market was more concerned about the consultations between China and the United States on February 14-15.

Of course, the monthly report on supply and demand released by the US Department of agriculture in February is also bad.

The report shows that in the year 2018/19, global cotton production and consumption were reduced, import and final inventory increased, and global cotton consumption was reduced to 26 million 921 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 432 thousand tons compared with the estimated value in December 2018.

The end of the global inventory loop increased to 16 million 437 thousand tons, an increase of 502 thousand tons compared with the estimated value in December 2018.

In the eyes of some professionals, the global economy is still weak, and it is natural for the report to reduce consumption data.

However, there is also a view that the market expects the direction of Sino US negotiations in mid February, but at present, Zheng cotton is constrained by consumption factors. The short term is still dominated by concussion, and the downside and upside space is limited.

In 2017/2018, Xinjiang machine picked cotton was sold faster than hand picked cotton because of cost factors, and as the sales period advanced, the high price of hand picked cotton in the market was increased.

In addition, although USDA also reduces cotton consumption in China, there is still a gap in total domestic cotton supply under existing conditions, which has certain support for market prices.

On the other hand, the uplink space is also suppressed by the amount of warehouse receipts. The amount of nearly 20 thousand futures warehouse receipts is not too small.

In late January, when Zheng cotton CF1905 contract rose to 15480 yuan / ton, a large number of hedging plates appeared, which led to the lack of strength and was beaten back to its original form.

And if we can't digest the 1905/1909 contract, the cotton will hit the market in a large number of new years until the next harvest season.

In short, the cotton market has been affected by uncertain factors, and the trend of the future may remain volatile.