The Price Is Approaching The High Point Before The 2015 Crash. Will The Dyestuff Market Plunge Again?

Recently, the price of dyestuff market has been close to the historical high in 2015.

Under the influence of "painful historical lessons", the concerns of the industry are also gradually deepened. Will the dyestuff market once again "dive" after the sharp rise in 2015, and repeat the same mistakes?

2015 from boiling point to freezing point

In the first half of 2015, before the dye price reached its peak, China's dyestuff industry had already shown the trend of price rise.

At the beginning of 2013, domestic dye leading enterprises settled for patent disputes and further reached strategic cooperation. After that, the competition mode of dye leading enterprises changed, the price war gradually reduced, and the market prices began to rise. Profits of leading enterprises greatly improved.

And in the fast developing stage of downstream printing and dyeing and terminal textile and garment industry, the strong demand of dyestuff market has provided inner support for the gradual increase in price of Dyestuff Factory.

However, after entering 2015, the price of dyes and related dye intermediates has reached a high level. The trend of long-term upward trend continues to stimulate the market participants' soaring sentiment, and in the continuous stockpile and cover up of traders, the market bubble rises and the price of water is enlarged.

At this time, in 2015, downstream printing and dyeing and textile industry was trapped in overcapacity, and a large number of rashly expanding textile and garment enterprises went through production, bankruptcy, running and restructuring.

Since June 2015, the price of dyes has been reversed and the gross profit margin has declined.

The dispersed black ECT300% dropped from 45 yuan / kg in early June to 18 yuan / kg in early August, which dropped by 60%, and reduced from 100 yuan / kg in early June to 40 yuan / kg in August, the same decline reached 60%.

In the harsh environment, dye profits also fell to 1.70% in August, or 97%.

Businesses and traders were caught unprepared.

After the large-scale fluctuations of "boiling point to freezing point" in 2015, the demand for downstream industries declined and pessimism began to spread and spread to the dye industry.

At that time, the bubble with high price was broken, and the market value of dye was returned, which resulted in the long-term consolidation of ~2017 in 2015.

2018 high temperature keeps going down.

And in 2018, the price of Chinese dyestuff market was released from the narrow market consolidation in 2017, and it also refreshed the price high of nearly 3 years.

In the low consolidation of ~2017 in 2015, the price bubble was gradually squeezed out, and the price interval of the average price in 2017 was fully recognized by the market.

At this point, China's dyestuff market has a relatively strong price rising base.

On the basis of the environmental protection supervision in 2017, pollution prevention and control efforts continued to increase, and the dye and intermediate enterprises that started to decline or stop production due to pollution problems were not alone.

The most concentrated one is dyestuff production enterprises in Jiangsu, which were affected by the pollution of the Lianyungang river at the end of April. Two of the three giants of the disperse dye industry have entered the half stop production and rectification stage, and some of the upstream dye intermediates have also been affected.

The good result of the dye factory shutdown is expected to provide a substantial premium for the dyestuff market.

At the same time, the difference between 2018 and 2015 is even more different. The growth rate of the terminal textile and garment industry in 2018 is still slowing down. However, in the process of deepening the structural reform of the supply side of the textile industry, the production and marketing situation of the Chinese textile industry has begun to pick up.

At this time, compared with 2015, it is just a compaction at the bottom and a stall at the top.

On the other hand, although the pollution control process will affect the downstream printing and dyeing production while affecting the supply of dyestuffs, the printing and dyeing industry in China is a highly redundant industry. The stoppage and production restriction of some local enterprises and some enterprises will not have a great impact on the production of China's printing and dyeing industry as a whole. The idle effective production capacity of large compliance plants can basically make up for the loss of processing capacity of printing and dyeing orders caused by the stoppage of some enterprises.

On the whole, in 2018, there was a strong decline in the supply of dyestuff industry in China, and the degree of subsequent decline would continue to expand.

This year, the possibility of China's dyestuff industry slump in 2015 is smaller. But at the same time, it is still necessary to pay attention to the resumption of the recent production of dyestuff factories. If most factories can return to work on schedule, the market will give a higher price of premium dye, which will shrink or even disappear.

It is inevitable that prices will fall back to normal levels.

afterword

Printing and dyeing enterprises should be cautious.

At present, domestic market prices of major dye intermediates remain stable, such as disperse anthraquinones, reactive dyes and other raw materials prices.

However, in the middle of June, downstream printing and dyeing

The volume of orders decreased significantly compared with that in May, and the spot demand for dyes also showed a slow decline.

However, regardless of the future trend of dye prices, printing and dyeing enterprises should always be cautious when purchasing dyes.

In the face of uncertain market demand, enterprises should reduce the risk of dye price fluctuation in small batch and multiple batches in the course of purchasing dyes.

Industry experts suggest that printing and dyeing enterprises can adopt the "sales quota" mode, that is, determine the quantity of purchases according to the needs of short-term production.

Because of the increasing speed of communication, logistics and trading, if the dye quantity is small, it can usually be placed in the morning, and the next day, the normal production will not be affected.

Of course, printing and dyeing at present.

In addition to the fluctuation of dye prices, there are many other pressures, such as environmental protection and shutdown, labor costs rising, and overseas competition intensification.

Therefore, printing and dyeing enterprises should be well prepared for future challenges.