The Current Financial Support For The Real Economy Is Relatively Stable.

The scale of social financing and the growth of new credit are relatively fast, while the growth rate of broad money supply M2 has dropped markedly.

What is the pattern of "one quick and one slow"? Ruan Jianhong, director of the investigation and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, said that the scale of social financing increased by more than the same period last year, indicating that the financial support for the real economy is relatively stable. The decline of M2 growth is the objective result of the financial system to reduce the internal bar.

Central bank statistics show that in the first half of 2017, the scale of social financing increased by 11 trillion and 170 billion yuan, 1 trillion and 360 billion yuan more than that of the same period last year, and RMB loans increased by 7 trillion and 970 billion yuan, an increase of 436 billion 200 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

Ruan Jianhong pointed out that in general, the liquidity of the banking system is basically stable, and the scale of money and credit and social financing has increased steadily, the market interest rate has increased slightly, and the RMB exchange rate has been generally stable.

"Banks continue to increase their support for the real economy and further optimize the credit structure."

Wen Bin, principal researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that although corporate bond financing and note financing declined for two consecutive months, the continued rebound in the bank's table loans and the rapid growth of trust loans hedged their impact, thereby ensuring the support of the real economy financing needs.

The development of new services such as service industry and high-tech manufacturing industry has accelerated.

In the first half of this year, the proportion of medium and long term loans increased by 82.5% in all industries, which was 3.6 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. At the end of 6, the balance of the medium and long term loans in the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 33.3%, up 19.8 percentage points over the same period last year.

Overcapacity and real estate loans were significantly lower.

At the end of 6, China's overcapacity in the overcapacity industry accounted for 5.4% of the total long-term loan balance in the industry, 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year, 24.2% yuan in real estate loans and 2.8 percentage points lower than the end of last year. In the first half of this year, real estate loans increased by 3 trillion and 40 billion yuan, accounting for 38.1% of the total loans in the same period, accounting for 6.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous year.

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We have achieved positive results in service reform and support for economic pformation and upgrading.

Ruan Jianhong pointed out that in the first half of the year, credit provision was supported, controlled and maintained.

Financial support for advanced manufacturing and service industries with market prospects has been increasing. The decline in real estate credit growth is conducive to curbing the real estate bubble.

While the financial support for the real economy remains relatively strong, the M2 growth rate of concern has been on the decline.

Central bank statistics show that the balance of M2 in China was 163 trillion and 130 billion yuan at the end of 6, an increase of 9.4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.2 and 2.4 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year.

"We should take an objective view of the slowdown in M2 growth."

Ruan Jianhong said that with the implementation of sound neutral monetary policy and strengthening the effect of financial regulation, the near future

The expansion of capital account related to off balance sheet products has slowed down, resulting in a corresponding decline in deposits and M2 growth, which is the objective result of reducing internal leverage in the financial system.

In addition, there are some reasons for the cardinal effect.

Financial support for the real economy has not weakened because of the M2 slowdown.

Central bank statistics show that in the first half of this year, China's non-financial sector's M2 grew by 10.2%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the overall M2 growth rate.

The rhythm of the financial sector's deleveraging is certain.

Ruan Jianhong said,

The operation of pre regulation and fine-tuning, financial supervision and coordination strengthened, and the financial sector appropriately grasped the rhythm of deleveraging.

At the end of 6, the M2 held by the financial system increased by 2.5% over the same period last year, 6.9 percentage points less than the overall growth rate of M2, which narrowed by 8.9 percentage points at the end of 5.

Ruan Jianhong stressed that with the further return of finance to the source of real economy services, as long as the financing demand of the real economy is satisfied, the slowdown in M2 actually reflects the increase in the turnover efficiency of the stock money.

M2 growth, which is lower than in the past, may become a new norm, and its changes need not be overinterpreted.

On the current slowdown in the M2 and the rapid growth of social financing portfolio, Wen Bin believes that this aspect can ensure that the financial sector's support for the real economy, on the other hand, it can guard against the risk of the financial system.

In the six months' outlook, where will the monetary policy go? Ruan Jianhong said that next step, the PBC will adhere to a prudent and neutral monetary policy, maintain a basically stable liquidity and achieve a steady growth in the scale of money and credit and social financing.

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