The Slowdown Of Investment In China'S Post Industrialization Era Is Inevitable.

At the National People's Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced that this year's GDP growth target is 6.5%. Economists have made a comment on the new growth target as usual, and the media at home and abroad have focused on it.

The growth target of 6.5% is the lowest since Beijing announced its annual policy objectives, but in my view, it may be a more realistic one in recent years.

China's economy has entered the post industrial era, and the slowdown in investment growth is inevitable. Under the current global economic environment and domestic production costs, the export downturn will continue.

It's a little difficult for a middle-aged man to run and play like a young man.

To reduce your expectations is responsible for your health.

China's fixed asset investment rate has deviated from the trend growth rate over the past thirty years since 2007, even though the government is trying hard to stimulate the economy, and investment growth is still slowing down.

There is a cyclical reason for the slowdown in investment. There is a need to "go to capacity", but the most fundamental thing is the development of China's industrialization to this extent. After ten years of blowout construction, infrastructure investment has been unable to maintain its super high growth level.

However, in order to maintain growth goals, the premier announced that the GDP growth target for this year is 6.5%. In order to maintain the growth target, Premier Li Keqiang made a comment on the new growth target as usual.

The growth target of 6.5% is the lowest since Beijing announced its annual policy objectives, but in my view, it may be a more realistic one in recent years.

It is a little hard to call a middle-aged man to run a ball like a young man.

To reduce your expectations is responsible for your health.

The rate of fixed asset investment in China has deviated from the trend growth rate over the past thirty years since 2007, even though the government tried harder.

Investment growth is still slowing down.

There is a cyclical reason for the slowdown in investment. There is a need to "go to capacity", but the most fundamental thing is the development of China's industrialization to this extent. After ten years of blowout construction, infrastructure investment has been unable to maintain its super high growth level.

However, in order to maintain growth goals, the premier announced that the GDP growth target for this year is 6.5%. In order to maintain the growth target, Premier Li Keqiang made a comment on the new growth target as usual.

It is to tie the strongest part of the economy to the weakest link and increase the risk of burning the battalion.

Most governments in the world do not have growth targets, nor will they be unable to achieve an economic goal.

The author believes that the Chinese government should not have growth targets and policies should not be abducted by growth targets.

Steady growth is better than steady employment.

As long as there is no big trouble in the job market, human intervention should be reduced, giving the market opportunities for clearing, allowing the economy to have self adjustment and self repair opportunities, and reduce the chance of big risks by releasing small risks.

Under the current global economic environment and domestic production costs, the export downturn will continue.

It's a little difficult for a middle-aged man to run and play like a young man.

To reduce your expectations is responsible for your health.

It is to tie the strongest part of the economy to the weakest link and increase the risk of burning the battalion.

Most governments in the world do not have growth targets, nor will they be unable to achieve an economic goal.

The author believes that the Chinese government should not have growth targets and policies should not be abducted by growth targets.

Steady growth is better than steady employment.

As long as there is no big trouble in the job market, human intervention should be reduced, giving the market opportunities for clearing, allowing the economy to have self adjustment and self repair opportunities, and reduce the chance of big risks by releasing small risks.

This article is originally published in this weekly magazine as personal opinion, not investment advice or persuasion.

China's fixed asset investment rate has deviated from the trend growth rate over the past thirty years since 2007, even though the government is trying hard to stimulate the economy, and investment growth is still slowing down.

There is a cyclical reason for the slowdown in investment. There is a need to "go to capacity", but the most fundamental thing is the development of China's industrialization to this extent. After ten years of blowout construction, infrastructure investment has been unable to maintain its super high growth level.

However, in order to maintain growth targets, the government has artificially pushed up investment through monetary expansion and fiscal expansion year after year.

"

At the National People's Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced that this year's GDP growth target is 6.5%. Economists have made a comment on the new growth target as usual, and the media at home and abroad have focused on it.

The growth target of 6.5% is the lowest since Beijing announced its annual policy objectives, but in my view, it may be a more realistic one in recent years.

China's economy has entered the post industrial era, and the slowdown in investment growth is inevitable. Under the current global economic environment and domestic production costs, the export downturn will continue.

It's a little difficult for a middle-aged man to run and play like a young man.

Lowering your expectations is responsible for your health.

China's fixed asset investment rate has deviated from the trend growth rate over the past thirty years since 2007, even though the government is trying hard to stimulate the economy, and investment growth is still slowing down.

There is a cyclical reason for the slowdown in investment. There is a need to "go to capacity", but the most fundamental thing is the development of China's industrialization to this extent. After ten years of blowout construction, infrastructure investment has been unable to maintain its super high growth level.

But the government aims to maintain growth.

Why do we need to "grow steadily"? The general logic given by senior officials is that maintaining social stability is very important and we need to maintain certain employment growth, so the economy must maintain a certain growth rate.

The growth target began in the Zhu Rongji cabinet. At that time, the "guarantee eight" was not carefully demonstrated in the relationship between growth and employment, and the setting process of the growth target was more random.

Year after year, the growth rate has become the achievement of the government. In recent years, economic policy has been hostage by the artificial growth target.

Year by year, through monetary expansion and fiscal expansion, artificially push up investment, which is called "steady growth".

Why do we need to "grow steadily"? The general logic given by senior officials is that maintaining social stability is very important and we need to maintain certain employment growth, so the economy must maintain a certain growth rate.

The growth target began in the Zhu Rongji cabinet. At that time, the "guarantee eight" was not carefully demonstrated in the relationship between growth and employment, and the setting process of the growth target was more random.

Year after year, the growth rate has become the achievement of the government. In recent years, economic policy has been hostage by the artificial growth target.

We must see that China's

Significant changes have taken place. The pressure to digest the surplus labor force in rural areas has been greatly reduced, and the way out for migrant workers has diversified.

At the same time, the role of investment in the employment market is not high, and the multiplier effect is getting lower and lower.

We must see that investment is a good thing, but excessive investment and improper investment may have a negative impact on the long-term stability and sustainable growth of the economy.

It must be noted that the overall debt level of the Chinese economy has been at a high level in the emerging countries. In recent years, by increasing leverage in the residential sector to help local debt and real estate developers to leverage, to a certain extent, we must see that China's population structure has undergone major changes. The pressure to digest the surplus labor force in rural areas has been greatly reduced, and the way out for migrant workers has diversified.

At the same time, the role of investment in the employment market is not high, and the multiplier effect is getting lower and lower.

We must see that investment is a good thing, but excessive investment and improper investment may have a negative impact on the long-term stability and sustainable growth of the economy.

We must see that the overall debt level of China's economy has been at a high level in the emerging countries. In recent years, by increasing leverage to help local debt and real estate developers to leverage, it has tied the weakest link to the weakest link to a certain extent, increasing the risk of burning and battalion.

It is to tie the strongest part of the economy to the weakest link and increase the risk of burning the battalion.

Most governments in the world do not have growth targets, nor will they be unable to achieve an economic goal.

The author believes that the Chinese government should not have growth targets and policies should not be abducted by growth targets.

Steady growth is better than steady employment.

As long as there is no big trouble in the job market, human intervention should be reduced, giving the market opportunities for clearing, allowing the economy to have self adjustment and self repair opportunities, and reduce the chance of big risks by releasing small risks.

This article is originally published in this weekly magazine. It is for personal opinions, not investment advice or persuasion in most countries of the world. There is no growth target for the government, nor will it be difficult to achieve an economic goal.

The author believes that the Chinese government should not have growth targets and policies should not be abducted by growth targets.

Steady growth is better than steady employment.

As long as there is no big trouble in the job market, human intervention should be reduced, giving the market opportunities for clearing, allowing the economy to have self adjustment and self repair opportunities, and reduce the chance of big risks by releasing small risks.

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