The Textile And Garment Industry In The United States Is Less Likely To Produce Reflux.

Sino US trade frictions will constitute a sharp negative impact on China's textile and garment exports.

China can not enhance its competitiveness in textile and clothing industry through trade protection.

China's textile and garment industry is an obvious export oriented industry. Imports are very limited, and it is mainly imported from India and other Asian countries. Therefore, it is impossible to enhance the profitability of domestic enterprises by increasing the tariff level on the US and blocking the entry of us products.

The United States is the largest importer of textiles and clothing in the world, and also the largest exporter of textiles and clothing in China. In 2016 1-10, the proportion of exports to the United States reached China.

17% of total exports.

Considering that the US textile and garment trade partners are relatively diverse, and the development of the textile and garment industry is mature and the barriers to entry are low.

The export of textile and clothing will be obviously bad.

In the short term, even if there is trade friction, the possibility of manufacturing reflow in the textile and garment industry in the United States is less likely.

On the one hand, the textile and garment industry in the United States has shrunk seriously, and the total output value and employment rate are very low. It is difficult to recover in the short term. On the other hand, the textile and garment industry as a typical labor-intensive industry, the high cost of labor in the United States will significantly increase production costs.

Calculation of the influence of order outflow on China's textile and clothing exports.

If Sino US trade friction occurs, the most likely result is the pfer of orders to foreign countries. Vietnam is the second largest textile and apparel in the United States.

Because of its relatively complete industry matching, low production cost and abundant labor force, it is most likely to undertake the pfer of orders.

Suppose that the total employment rate of the existing textile and garment industry in Vietnam is 2 million 800 thousand unchanged and the export proportion remains 90%. Based on the development history of China's textile industry, it is assumed that the total output value of Vietnam will remain at the rate of 5 thousand US dollars per person per year, and the total scale of the export of Vietnam's textile and garment industry will be calculated.

(according to the forecast, Vietnam's textile and garment industry total exports reached 153 billion 700 million US dollars in 2025, and the difference between 2025 and 165 billion dollars of Vietnam textile and Apparel Association was not large, which proved that the forecast was reasonable.

From the point of view of order taking capacity, we estimate that the decline in exports of textile and apparel orders to Vietnam in 2017 is expected to be around 6%, with relatively limited impact.

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Data show that in 2016 1-12 months, the overall situation of China's textile industry has improved, and a number of data have increased year by year. The value of export delivery has declined, the number of loss making enterprises has increased, but the amount of loss has decreased.

In the 1-12 month of 2016, the added value of the textile industry increased by 4.9% compared with the same period last year, and the production and operation were stable. The fixed assets investment in the textile industry increased by 10.7%; the textile production and marketing rate reached 98.4%, while the garment manufacturing industry was 97.7%; however, the delivery value of textile exports decreased by 0.9% compared to the same period last year.

In the 1-12 month of 2016, the income of textile business owners increased by 4.1% compared to the same period last year. The number of loss making enterprises in the textile industry increased by 7% compared to the same period last year, and the amount of losses increased by -5.8% compared with the same period last year. The profit grew, the profit of textile industry increased by 4.4% compared with that of the previous year, and the finished product inventory of textile industry decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year.

Since the beginning of this year, the world economy is still in the recovery stage, but the recovery of major economies is uneven.

The worsening fiscal deficit and debt problem in developed countries has become a major hidden danger for the sustained recovery of the world economy.

At the same time, inflationary pressures are spreading from emerging market countries to developed countries, and continue to increase the uncertainty of the economic situation.

At the same time, the pressure of the depreciation of the US dollar will further accelerate the passive appreciation of the RMB.

As for the products that have been pushed up by cost and continuously raise export prices, the appreciation of the renminbi will continue to weaken the competitiveness of China's textile and apparel export prices.

The currency exchange rate supervision reform act of 2011, which was passed by the United States Senate recently, is mainly aimed at China, which is aimed at forcing the renminbi to accelerate appreciation. It not only violates international rules, but also threatens the stable development of Sino US economic and trade relations.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.