On The Trend Of Sino US Textile And Garment Trade From Trump'S Congratulatory Letter

According to the US White House, on February 8 local time, US President Donald J. trump wrote a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping, thanking President Xi for congratulating trump on his assumption of office and wishing the Chinese people a happy Lantern Festival and a prosperous year of the rooster.

Trump stated that he looked forward to working with President Xi to promote constructive Sino US relations benefiting both countries.

What signal does trump send the blessing of the year of the rooster Chinese textile and garment export enterprises What will happen to the bilateral trade between China and the United States? Will the punitive tariff increase with the rise of trade protectionism in the United States? At the same time, how to look at the impact of low production cost countries such as Southeast Asia on Sino US bilateral trade? How to predict the development trend of textile and clothing export enterprises to the United States this year?

Three years ago, the new president of the United States, trump, signed an executive order to formally announce the withdrawal of the United States from the trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), which caused widespread debate for a time. Therefore, through interviews with relevant professionals and the top 20 export enterprises to the United States, we can understand the enterprise's prediction of this year's industry export trend.

　　 1. What will happen to Sino US bilateral trade

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, although affected by the global economic situation and trade environment, the textile and clothing trade volume between China and the United States shows a downward trend, but at present, the important position of the two countries in the bilateral trade relations has not changed: the United States is still China's second largest trading partner, the first largest export market, and the fourth largest import source; China is the largest trading partner of the United States, the third largest export market and the largest source of import.

However, in recent years, compared with countries in Southeast Asia and other regions, China's comparative advantage in foreign trade of textile and clothing is decreasing. At the same time, under Trump's new deal, the prospect of Sino US trade is more complicated and confusing, especially during his election campaign, he made a harsh statement on trade related to China, for example, he might label China as an exchange rate manipulator, he might comprehensively review trade activities related to China, and he might impose a 45% tariff on Chinese products. This series of uncertainties makes people worry about the bilateral trade between China and the United States.

So, what new changes will take place in Sino US bilateral trade?

In view of the above problems, some analysts believe that these causes Sino US bilateral trade China has a long-term trade surplus with the United States. The U.S. - China Trade Council pointed out that because the US service trade surplus with China is often ignored, and China's export products contain many foreign components, the US statistics often exaggerate the actual scale of the trade deficit with China, which leads to the goals of reducing the trade deficit, increasing employment and boosting the U.S. economy proposed in Trump's new deal.

Diao Daming, an assistant researcher at the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that Trump's base point for fulfilling these commitments is exchange rate and tax revenue. With regard to taxation, at present, more attention is paid to the border regulation tax. The United States wants to bring the US funded enterprises invested abroad back home. In the name of China as a currency manipulator, it is very possible to fight a trade war with China.

Qi Xin, an associate researcher at the Institute of international trade and economic cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, also pointed out that China has a large trade surplus with the United States, a considerable part of which is processing trade. China only collects processing fees and then exports to the United States, so the profits of American companies are greater.

It can be seen that if the US companies impose high tariffs, China will also be punished. What's more, China's exports to the United States are mainly low-cost and high-quality industrial products, which will eventually affect American consumers after tariff hikes. Therefore, Trump's bilateral trade with China and the United States policy It is prudent to introduce the government of the people's Republic of China.

However, some U.S. experts have argued that the high 45% tariff on Chinese products may be mainly aimed at some of the so-called dumping products they identified. In fact, there are not few examples of punitive tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese products in recent years.

Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the Institute for the promotion of international trade of China Council for the promotion of international trade, said that at present, China has become the main trade partner of most Asian countries. After the United States withdrew from the TPP, the negotiation of regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) initiated by the 10 ASEAN countries and jointly participated by China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India may be possible Drive into the fast lane.

Whether the RCEP negotiations can be successfully completed in 2017 is something to look forward to.

In addition, the role of institutions and projects such as the China led aiib and the belt and road initiative will also increase.

　　 2. How much impact will textile exports to the United States be affected

What will be the impact of the new deal on the trade between China and the United States?

According to the statistics of China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, the top 20 export enterprises to the United States in 2016 show that there are more export enterprises from Shanghai and Guangdong. Gu Weiwei, manager of trade management department of Shanghai Shenda import and Export Co., Ltd., one of the top 20 export enterprises to the United States, said: "it is untenable for Trump's new deal to use the exchange rate as an excuse. In fact, the price advantage brought by the devaluation of RMB is not enough to resist the advantage of low production costs of Southeast Asian countries. For example, in 2016, the depreciation of RMB against the US dollar was about 6.67%, which was good for China's textile export. However, according to incomplete statistics, from January to November 2016, China's textile export decreased by 6.68% year-on-year. In addition, although from the perspective of our national interests, the disadvantages of replacing "made in China" by Southeast Asian countries are greater than the advantages, but the gradient transfer of textile industry is the general trend. It should be pointed out that when planning the production layout of Southeast Asia, enterprises must achieve complementary advantages. For some domestic production bases which still have strategic role, they should not give up easily and should not fly to the southeast blindly. "

Chen Zheng, general manager of Shanghai Xinlian textile import and Export Co., Ltd., one of the top 20 export enterprises to the United States, also said: "the trade convenience between Southeast Asian countries and the United States is better than that between China and the United States, and the tariff from Southeast Asia to the United States is far lower than that from China to the United States. Last year, our company's exports to the United States declined slightly for the first time, and we are taking targeted measures

However, the person in charge of the top 20 export enterprises to the United States from Guangdong and other places said: "we can't simply talk about the impact of transferring production capacity to Southeast Asia on China from the perspective of advantages and disadvantages. The textile industry chain is very long, and the sewing link in the downstream is sensitive to labor cost, and will continue to transfer to Southeast Asia and other regions. In the upstream R & D, design and raw material fields, domestic enterprises still have obvious advantages. In the future, the global textile supply chain is expected to form a leading pattern of "China + neighboring countries". Natural selection makes global trade liberalization irreversible. "

At the beginning of this year, sun trump, the vice president of the China Textile Industry Association, pointed out that at the beginning of this year, sun trump, the vice president of the China Textile Industry Association, took office at the China Textile Industry Association. So he wants to upgrade the manufacturing industry, increase jobs and protect the domestic market. Put forward to him Products made in China The 45% tariff is basically punitive. The annual export of our industry to the United States is nearly 50 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 30% of the US textile imports. Such a high tariff is a heavy blow to the textile and clothing industry

Sun Huaibin explained: "then, how much impact will trump's new deal have on textile enterprises' export to the United States? In fact, if his policy is to be implemented, there will be a process that may be opposed by domestic interest groups in the United States. First of all, importers should oppose it. Such high tariffs will make it impossible for some irreplaceable Chinese products to enter. Second, consumers will increase the cost of living, and it is estimated that it will also cause dissatisfaction among the American people. We should use these internal contradictions to protect the interests of our industry. Finally, we should also see that trump has adopted tax cuts to create an environment for attracting investment and expand the investment of enterprises from all over the world to the United States. At present, more and more Chinese cotton textile, chemical fiber and clothing enterprises invest in the United States. Similarly, the withdrawal of the United States from TPP is not necessarily a bad thing for our industrial development. In short, we should have an objective view of some of Trump's new policies. "

　　 3. Objective view New trend of Sino US textile and clothing trade

On January 23 local time, on the same day that trump announced his withdrawal from the TPP, the textile industry branch of China Council for the promotion of international trade and Frankfurt Exhibition (USA) Co., Ltd. hosted the event China Textile & Apparel Trade Fair 2017 The spring exhibition opens in New York. It is reported that nearly 2000 professional buyers arrived on the first day, setting a new high in the spring exhibition.

In response, Liu Yaozhong, deputy director of the International Trade Office of the China Textile Industry Federation, said that the textile and clothing exported by China accounted for a relatively high proportion of individual consumer goods in the United States. Under Trump's new deal, he hopes to revive "made in America" only in the high-end manufacturing industry. If the United States redevelops the middle and low-end manufacturing industry, it will not have much cost advantage.

Liu Yaozhong said in particular: "for export enterprises, first, they should pay attention to the volatility of exchange rates. Next year, exchange rate fluctuations among major global currencies may be enlarged. Second, when developing countries choose to pay back, they have to consider how to reduce the risk of US dollar payment

Qi Xin said that from the current actual situation, although Sino US bilateral trade is indeed affected by Southeast Asian countries, the impact is very limited. Although the United States imported textiles from China in 2016 clothing However, China still accounts for 1 / 3 of US textile and garment imports, far higher than Vietnam's 1 / 10 share.

Compared with the trade volume of Southeast Asian countries, the order volume of China will increase, while the trade volume of China will decrease; However, in the long run, China's low-end production capacity and links are transferred out, and high-end resources are allocated globally, which can make use of the cost advantages and policy advantages of neighboring countries and effectively avoid trade barriers. It is an effective means to de capacity, de stock, reduce costs, and make up for weaknesses, which plays a positive role in promoting the adjustment, transformation and upgrading of domestic industrial structure. Therefore, the future of China and Southeast Asian countries is a dislocation competition, and the gunpowder is not strong, so we need to look at it objectively and calmly. "

Zhao Ping added: "with the continuous improvement of the production technology level of China's textile and clothing involving R & D, design and raw and auxiliary materials, after the manufacturing links of some brands are transferred to Southeast Asia, China's textile and garment finished products trade with Southeast Asia will decline, while the export of raw and auxiliary materials will increase significantly. As a result, with the increase in the amount of textiles exported to the US market by Southeast Asian countries, China's textile enterprises, as the upstream, are not completely in the position of being replaced. "

She believes that China's textile exports will not be affected by the shift of manufacturing industry to Southeast Asia, but may also be affected by Southeast Asia Textiles and clothing The growth of export benefits Chinese enterprises. The RCEP jointly promoted by China and Southeast Asia is also to achieve the goal of win-win cooperation. Through regional economic cooperation, China and Southeast Asian countries can achieve common development.

Zhao Ping concluded that in 2017, China's export situation is still very grim. The brexit of the UK and the EU's own recovery from the Soviet Union are far lower than expected, leading to the textile enterprises' pressure to export to the EU is still huge; after trump took office, there is great uncertainty in the trade policy, and the difficulty of exporting to the United States will not be lower than that in 2016. Therefore, it is suggested that enterprises should speed up the pace of innovation, increase investment in R & D upgrading capacity, and form unique brand advantages as soon as possible, so as to obtain new living space under the background of slow recovery of global economy, intensified competition in world market and rising trade protectionism.

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