Is There Any Risk In China'S Stock Market? The Answer Is: Benevolence Sees The Benevolence, Wise Men See Wisdom.

The central economic work conference pointed out: "we should put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position, resolve to deal with a number of risk points, focus on prevention and control of asset bubbles, improve and improve regulatory capacity, and ensure that there is no systemic financial risk."

This asset bubble market is divided into generalities and generalities. The difference lies in whether there are bubbles in bonds and stock markets.

The overall risk of the city is not large, and the systemic risk is very small.

A few days ago, President Liu Shiyu's speech pointed out: "in 2017, we should work hard under the premise of" stability "as the main basis and harmonization. We must make progress in the key areas of the capital market under the premise of good grasp. We must make progress in the key areas of the capital market. We must put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position. We must deepen the reform of the multi-level capital market system and strengthen the basic functions of the capital market.

It is also mentioned that the prevention and control of financial risks should be placed in a more important position. As the chairman of the SFC, the risks and bubbles of real estate do not seem to be the focus of attention. The risk of bond and stock market is the focus of the chairman's attention. So, is there any risk in China's stock market? If so, where is the risk?

More than double income, and even some tens of times, twenty times earnings, the valuation level of the new shares is much higher than that of the same industry, and some of them are several times higher than those of the same industry. The most typical example is Haitian Seiko. After the listing, it has benefited from low price issuance, and 30 successive trading blocks have created a new record of new stock trading in the stock market of China. The stock price has risen from 1.5 yuan to the highest 34.29 yuan, and the price earnings ratio has exceeded 200 times. Now it has fallen 30%, falling to 23.51 yuan, and the P / E ratio is still 180 times higher than that of the Chinese stock market. However, the fundamentals are not very ideal. According to the data, the net profit of 2013 year is 35 million 629 thousand and 700 yuan, down from the same period last year. In 2014, the net profit rebounded, and the net profit rose to $ten; in 2015, the net profit of the company was RMB yuan, down from the same period last year. The first is the risk of new shares. Due to the problem of trading mechanism, the existence of new bad habits and the manipulation of market manipulation generally require more than ten trading boards after the IPO.

From 1 to September, its total business income was 763 million 901 thousand and 500 yuan, a slight increase of 2.78% over the same period last year.

The company announced that the company was in good condition from January 2016 to December, and there was no significant decline in performance. However, no mention was made of the increase in performance.

How does this basic plane support the 180 times price earnings ratio and how to support the stock price of 23 yuan, and the growth of the industry itself is not very prominent.

The same situation appears on the bank board. At present, the bank index price earnings ratio is 5.78 times, but the new bank's stock market profit rate is obviously higher. The highest is the Bank of Jiangyin, with a P / E ratio of 28.2 times, which has fallen from 17.2 yuan to 10.85 yuan, but the P / E ratio is still nearly 5 times that of the whole sector, and 3 times higher than that of the city commercial bank, but its growth is not excellent. Jiangyin bank is in the initial public offering.

According to the bulletin, it is estimated that the operating income of the bank in 2016 1~9 will be between 1 billion 716 million yuan and 1 billion 865 million yuan, a decrease of 0%~8% over the same period last year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company from 511 million yuan to 555 million yuan, down by 0%~8% from the same period last year. The third quarterly forecast predicts that the net profit margin attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be between 74934 and 814 million 500 thousand yuan from January 2016 to December. The range of fluctuation is from -8% to 0, which is a distance from the Bank of Ningbo, but the price earnings ratio of Ningbo bank is only 7.95 times, where the difference of the valuation level is located. Although the cost of stock ownership tends to be consistent, the short-term price drop of the stock price is difficult to open, but the return of the market value is an unavoidable option.

At present, the SFC increases the supply of new shares, on the one hand, the need to support the real economy in the capital market, and on the other hand pierce the bubble of the new IPO, which is to deal with some financial risk points.

As a result, some of the new stocks with no basic support are facing great adjustment space. Only a few sub shares with performance support can get out of the independent market.

From the perspective of new speculation, it is also generally bad. Only some fund manipulators are likely to make profits. It is difficult for ordinary investors to make profits. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange thinks that some investors ignore the fundamentals of stocks and are keen on new stocks. In particular, some small and medium-sized investors are blindly following the trend due to their lack of sufficient expertise and investment experience.

According to statistics, in 2011 and 2012, the accounts for the first day of IPO were up to 65% at the end of 2012 and 56% respectively, with an average loss rate of 10%.

In recent years, the biggest loss of New Zealand accounts for 14 million yuan, and the largest loss rate of a single account is 58%.

Next is the risk of merger and reorganization of shell and shell resources. Speculation shell resources is a major feature of China's stock market. The worse the fundamentals, the higher the stock price. But at present, the securities and Futures Commission has increased the delisting system, greatly improved the threshold for restructuring the backdoor, and reduced the value of shell resources. In 2016, the merger and reorganization plan of listed companies was frequently seen.

In the whole year, a total of 24 single listed companies have been rejected, especially after the tightening of regulatory policy in the second half of the year. The number of cases has increased sharply, reaching 16 in the second half.

During the period from 2015 to 2016, a total of 587 cases of major asset restructuring of listed companies were reviewed by the merger and reorganization committee, of which 46 cases were not examined by the merger and reorganization committee.

On the other hand, with the accelerated issuance of IPO, listing is becoming more and more easy and backdoor listing will gradually decrease.

The market has reached a consensus on the accelerated issuance of IPO in 17 years. It is generally expected that there will be more than 300. PWC's 2017 IPO market outlook data show that in 2016, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 227 IPO, and the scale of financing was 150 billion 400 million yuan. In 2017, A shares IPO was 320~350, and the scale of financing was 2200~2500 billion yuan.

Raising standards of reorganization and containment of backdoor flooding are also important.

The need for construction in China has been a short board in China's delisting system, which is totally different from that in the US market. If the supply of new shares is increased on the one hand, and the delisting system is still a decoration on the other hand, there is no hope for China's stock market.

At the same time, increasing the intensity of delisting is also the best way to increase the penalties for fraud and listing.

The market has been hyping equity pfer, the author has always thought that the risk is enormous, mainly lies in the incalculable profit of subsequent assets injection, the inability to estimate when assets will be injected, and the incalculable price of asset injection. Once the asset injection is not as good as expected, or if the asset injection volume is not large enough to support the high price, the share price will be released in a continuous way.

If the follow-up capital operation is tighter and tighter, and it is slow to act or difficult to complete, the stock price will also have a space to make up, especially those with larger plates, higher liabilities and higher share prices.

The three is the risk of speculation and mixed reform. The mixed speculation was started at the end of 15. Some stocks have gone up very well, such as China Unicom, Sinopec, China Petroleum and some military sector stocks.

For example, the increase is far more than the big market increase, roughly starting from 4 yuan to nearly 8 yuan, nearly doubled, and the P / E ratio is as high as 249.8 times, which is unthinkable for a large stock market. China Unicom's mixed reform and mixed reform plan has been announced internally, and where the power to join the mixed reform is still unclear. The mixed reform will undoubtedly change the operation vitality of China Unicom to a certain extent, but even if the mixed pformation is successful, there will be a geometric guarantee for the improvement of the performance. In fact, the higher the share price is, the higher the difficulty will be.

The same stock and Hong Kong stock are not so cold for mixed reform. The reason is that the mixed reform is only at the subsidiary level rather than at the group level. As long as the state holding situation has not been changed, the disadvantages of some state-owned enterprises are very difficult to eradicate. At present, China's oil p / E ratio is a little scary and 665.6 times.

For mixed changes, it will help to improve the company's future business vitality, but do not over believe in the role of mixed change in performance. Once the hype is too high, the stock price is seriously deviated from the fundamentals of performance and so on. The future stock price will fall. After all, these industries belong to the strong cyclical industry.

Besides, we must also pay attention to the difficulty of mixed reform, which involves a difficult game involving all sides' interests, beware of delays in mixed changes or indefinite periods of time.

Maybe investors can say that in China there is no value investment, everyone is looking forward to get the price difference, but hype should also have a degree, not too crazy, otherwise it will ask for it. Zhe said that it would be crazy to make it die if it wants to destroy it. This is still very suitable for Chinese investors. In the 15 years of madness, we are still paying the debt.

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