Stock Market Forecast: Lingering At T-Junction

On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes all plummeted. Dow Jones, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq were the short head trend of the long declines through the top platform. The news of the weekend was so empty that the A shares would fall sharply, the stocks fell, the real estate stocks were strong, and the stock market was soaring, but the gold shares were weak. On the whole, the GEM stocks were still active relative to the main board market.

Next we need to see whether there will be admission to the afternoon.

From the valuation point of view, these traditional industries

Most of them are medium and low price stocks. Although PE is not at the bottom of history and some industries are still in the overall deficit, PB is not very cheap, but at least not expensive.

The steady growth of capital construction will force the reform of state-owned enterprises to provide the relative advantage of reform, and the superposition effect of these factors will erupt in a certain node in the future.

Market is the most taboo rebound, especially in the continued shock after the sudden rise of the index, will inevitably lead to a large number of hard disk.

If the amount of energy can not be effectively enlarged, it means that there is no incremental capital to enter the market to undertake this sell-off, so it is easy to attract short return.

There are many examples in the past trend of A shares. The most recent one is the July 26th heavy volume Zhongyang line forced to pull up, resulting in second days on a big Yin line smashed down.

On the operation, from the recent speeches of the highest decision-making level, we should continue to increase the reform of the side supply, and increase the investment in infrastructure construction by the end of the year.

We believe that the relevant traditional industries, such as coal, nonferrous metals, cement, construction machinery and so on, are expected to usher in the golden autumn market. It is suggested that investors pay enough attention to the above plates and take an active part in the game with the mentality of the middle line.

From the point of view of the theme fermentation, the above

Also faced with major opportunities, most of the traditional industries such as coal and nonferrous metal cement machinery are state-owned enterprises, and the majority of local state-owned enterprises have the concept of local state-owned enterprises reform. At the same time, these traditional industries are seriously overloaded this year, which is an important area of the side supply reform. Coal and steel are directly defined by the decision-making level as the pilot area of the side supply reform.

The judgment of liquidity inflection point is not reliable.

First, since the Fed's interest rate hike has been hoodwinked by global investors since the beginning of 2016, interest rates are expected to rise and fall. One of the fundamental reasons is that the global economic growth prospects still look gloomy, weak growth, high debt leverage, increasing inequality, new investment cycles of enterprises, and fragile financial assets and liabilities. Are monetary policy really ready for "exit"?

Second, if the bubble of financial market caused by monetary policy shift, it is hard to predict the impact of deleveraging on the real economy. Although the marginal effect of loose monetary policy has been useless, the negative effects may outweigh expectations once the withdrawal is made.

Third, the central bank "exaggerates" and adopts the method of adjusting market expectations to achieve "no fighting and bending soldiers". In fact, the use of policy instruments should be cautious.