There Has Been A Long Time In Cotton Spinning Market.

From the beginning

First, the warm field has skyrocketed, and then it has been sticky and short. The market has exploded in recent days, and the upstream is very happy. The downstream Tucao is difficult to follow up. The cotton textile market has not been so busy for a long time.

Since 2010, the number of three major raw materials for cotton spinning has risen slightly. The last time it was in early 2013, it is no wonder that the excitement and speculation in the recent market are soaring.

And this round cotton spinning

The rise is also accompanied by the rise of yarn prices for various varieties of the lower reaches, and some yarns increase more than raw materials.

Of course, there are differences in the logic of price increase among different varieties.

Specifically,

Cotton: spot emergency, futures speculation, long silence, the most startling explosion.

At the beginning of April, the shortage of raw materials of textile enterprises was the beginning of the cotton market.

Then in late April, futures prices skyrocketed to drive spot, throw reserves and control volume, spot continued to rush, market confidence increased, traders hoarding goods, cotton futures prices rose and rose again, throwing cotton store pactions also higher and higher.

Judging from the recent surge in prices for three months or so, after more than two years of unilateral downturns, cotton has accumulated too much speculation.

Pure cotton yarn: the cost is strong, and the price of the inside and outside is upside down.

The price of cotton yarn is lagging behind that of cotton, which basically shows the cost push mode. Especially after the cotton price becomes more and more intense in June, the cotton cost of pure cotton yarn factory is gradually rising, and the price of imported pure cotton yarn and the reverse demand of domestic yarn lead to part of the demand reflux. It has developed into a crazy market for the pure cotton yarn at a loss at the end of July: a weekend price increase of 500-1000, a week's rise of 2000-3000, and the rise and fall of the news is rising and falling.

Sticky short: demand growth, stock emergency, supply and demand good stimulation price rise

Last year, the problem of environmental protection brought about an increase in viscosity and short price. With the change of terminal demand, the consumption of viscose yarn increased, and the production capacity of downstream related yarn increased under the stimulation of demand and raw materials. Therefore, after the beginning of this year, the problem of supply terminal load was basically solved by sticking short factories, but the demand for good growth brought a continuous low or even negative stock.

In the traditional off-season, the demand for cotton mills and traders in the lower reaches of the July increased, and the load of cotton yarn remained high. Sticky short again welcomed the increase in prices and prices, stimulating the production and marketing of the good cycle, so the price rose along with the advance sale.

Human cotton yarn: cost push, production and marketing coordination, good cycle to drive prices up steadily

The price increase mode of cotton yarn is basically the same as that of pure cotton yarn. The cost plus plus the inventory is not high. Although the rising market is lagging behind raw materials due to the weakness of the initial market, however, when the cost is rising again and again, the downstream will turn to passive acceptance to take the initiative to increase its holdings, and the main driving force will come from continuous production and marketing.

Polyester and short: apart from raw materials, downstream helps to provide basic support for fundamentals.

The short and short price increase logic is the most perplexing for the downstream. Relying on a low inventory seems to be difficult to counter the weak shock of crude oil and polyester raw materials.

This round of price increases is different from the previous cost push or terminal demand recovery. On the one hand, the downstream cotton mills have substantially increased their raw materials and stimulated the demand for speculation from traders and mills.

Pure polyester yarn: low inventory, partial push, crazy with the wind market.

For the pure polyester yarn, the low inventory since the Spring Festival is the beginning of its development, and this wave is basically driven by Fujian and Jiangxi cotton mills.

And with the weekend's first wave of inflation, the cotton mill in Fujian has changed from low inventory to basic comprehensive pre-sale. Therefore, the cotton mill has gradually become indifferent to whether the price is in bad shape with other regions, and whether the sales have turned to light. The traders who are stocking are also pleased to see that, with the participation of raw materials, the atmosphere of cotton and viscose price increases, and the price of yarn has been pushed up again and again.

Therefore, judging from the initial price increase logic of various varieties, whether policy, environmental protection or stock tension brought by market is their common supporting point. However, judging from the following upward momentum of viscose and polyester, it seems that the expansion of the increase seems to be driven by the infection of the cotton boom.

If the market is concerned about the rapid rise of staple fiber, will the cost of the yarn be realized?

From the point of view of immediate profits, in the early stage of short fiber rising, except for the active polyester yarn, the profits of other kinds of yarns showed a marked decline. Among them, the soaring cotton was the most severe blow to pure cotton yarn. However, with the follow-up yarn price follow-up, except for human cotton yarn, the immediate profit of other yarns was repaired, and blended yarn and pure polyester yarn could be profitable, but pure cotton yarn and cotton yarn were still in a state of loss.

To sum up: in recent years, cotton, polyester and sticky market has been flying, and the market speculation atmosphere has also become more and more intense as the price rises become more and more intense. The heat of the market is temporarily difficult to retreat. However, the infection force and the change of demand caused by the atmosphere are worth the attention of the market. For example, the uplift of the cotton price in the early stage causes some textile demand to flow back to the sticky short, and the cotton and sticky short prices are also high.