Guo Shiliang: 1St Anniversary Of The Stock Market Crash

The disaster may bring us a profound lesson.

However, investors, especially domestic investors, have relatively limited memory in the market.

Sometimes, for most investors who are deeply depressed by market capitalization, once the market earning effect is rising again, it is easy for them to forget the past painful experiences and lessons, instead of continuing the mistakes, thus leading to their own operations being constantly defeated in the same place.

Judging from the event that China's fusing mechanism has come to a close, we do not fully understand the operation characteristics of the market itself, and blindly copy the operation system of the mature market abroad, but it is easy to lead the policy system to be "acclimatized".

At the same time, from the rush to the end of the fusing mechanism, it reflects more or less the ups and down of market policy. This is also an important injury in the process of A share market reform.

However, although the policy is still in effect, the A share market has not yet fully realized the function of market self-regulation because of the successive effect of the national team's funds, which is likely to cause the over-the-counter funds to delay the massive layout of the A share market.

As a result, on the 1st anniversary anniversary of the stock market crash, the psychological impact of the stock market crash has not yet completely disappeared, and the market still has a lingering fear of the stock market turmoil. When the A share market can really achieve self-regulation function, it may be the time for long-term capital and even foreign capital to enter the market.

At present, there has been a whole 1st anniversary of the time since the mid June of last year.

However, in the past year, investors who can really keep their principal security are few and far between.

On the contrary, throughout this period, investors with a lot of losses are in the minority, and more investors who lose money simply lock stocks in the market and let them rise or fall.

In fact, for this round of stock market turmoil, it is the investors who dare to increase their leverage.

Generally speaking, the threshold of field financing is relatively high, and the regulation is relatively standardized. There is not much proportion of the real opening and even burglary.

On the contrary, as a new over-the-counter asset allocation tool, its rise has been characterized by low entry threshold, high capital leverage and lack of real-time regulation. It has been well received by the market in the latter part of the bull market, that is, the market is quite crazy.

The leverage ratio of 1 to 3, 1 to 5, or 1 to 10 is far more than the leverage of field financing, but it is a big temptation for many investors who are less than the two threshold of securities companies.

It is undeniable that for the Chinese stock market, until now, it still belongs to the stock market dominated by retail.

In recent years, although the proportion of institutional investors has gradually moved upward, but because of the low cost of market irregularities, combined with the advantages of institutional investors, such as capital advantage, cost advantage and information system, institutional investors have become more speculative than ordinary retail investors.

As a result, in this market environment, the stock market volatility continues to remain high. Combined with the huge scale of private capital, once the stock market has formed a sustained and effective money making effect, it will easily push a large amount of capital into the stock market.

However, for many funds, under the background of lack of rational knowledge, it is easy to find various tools that can improve the utilization ratio of funds, and try to get short-term profits opportunities in the rare bull market.

Thus, in the 14 and 15 years, especially in the first half of the 15 year, the scale of the venue financing has been expanded, and the more attractive than the venue financing, the OTC capital allocation has been sought after by the market.

As a result, under the influence of universal stock speculation, combined with the rise of leveraged tools, the leverage ratio of the whole market has been greatly improved. Before mid June 2015, the market was completely accelerating the process of "adding leverage" and "adding bubbles", and the capital leverage bubble of the market has basically reached the extreme.

Obviously, in

In the market, especially in the madness of the bull market, investors who are irrational and blindly increase the lever of capital do need to calm down and think seriously.

Perhaps, in their process of continuous reflection, they will have a further understanding of the development of China's stock market.

However, in my view, behind this wave of stock market boom and tumble, not only radical investors are needed to make deep introspection, but also for regulators and other related institutions, they need to take a deep look at the 1st anniversary anniversary of the stock market and take it as a warning.

In fact, for the stock market, when the market bubble reaches the extreme, it will often exist.

Strong demand.

However, when we look back on last year

Regulatory measures before and after the outbreak of the storm have to be reconsidered.

In fact, in 4 and May last year, regulators have gradually realized the risk of the stock market bubble expanding, and have taken warning of market investment risk and appropriate "deleveraging" measures.

Unfortunately, due to the strong enthusiasm of the market at that time, moderate regulatory actions have not been able to effectively suppress speculative enthusiasm in the market, and the surge of new liquidity, combined with a variety of capital leverage tools, has lifted the stock market bubble to a higher level.

After entering last June, regulators' regulatory measures for the stock market improved significantly, and accelerated the process of "deleveraging" and "de foaming" in the market at that time.

However, as mentioned above, the market itself has some self regulatory functions, and when the market bubble reaches the extreme, market demand for adjustment will also grow.

However, one thing is easy to be ignored by the market, that is, leverage not only has the effect of boosting, but also has the effect of helping to fall.

However, when the market bubble reaches the extreme, the market is likely to form an important turning point in the stage. During this period, the acceleration of "deleveraging" and "de foaming" measures will easily trigger a concentrated sell-off in the market, and even easily lead to the loss of liquidity in the market in the end of June and the beginning of July.

This shows that when regulators form an important turning point in the market, they use the means of accelerating "deleveraging" and "de foaming", but they tend to aggravate the stalling of the market at that time.

At the same time, because it did not take decisive cooling measures at an earlier time point, it indirectly exacerbated the risk of sell-off in the subsequent market.

Obviously, this is also worthy of deep reflection.

In addition, the hot debate in the market is nothing more than the rushing down of the fusing mechanism at the beginning of January this year, which led to the irrational irrational collapse of the market at that time.

Fortunately, however, the Chinese version of the fusing mechanism, which runs less than a week, can finally be halted in January 7th, otherwise it may still bring more risk to the market.